What’s Behind India Explaining Modi’s Ukraine Visit to Russia?

Why is India, despite its grand diplomatic maneuvers, scrambling to explain itself to Russia after Modi’s Ukraine visit? This question becomes critical as Ajit Doval, India’s National Security Advisor, traveled to St. Petersburg to brief President Vladimir Putin. The briefing focused on the Indian Prime Minister’s meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. For a country that claims strategic autonomy, Doval’s visit highlights India’s growing challenges. India is finding it increasingly difficult to balance its relationships between the West and its traditional ally, Russia. This balancing act becomes even more complex as India navigates its position between the Global North and the Global South.

Modi’s Ukraine Visit: India vs. Pakistan Diplomacy

India’s involvement in Ukraine, where Modi urged both sides to engage in dialogue, raises eyebrows. Modi’s visit to Kyiv comes at a time when Europe is increasing its calls for India to take a more proactive role in resolving the conflict. India portrays itself as a neutral mediator. However, its actions appear to require explanation, particularly to Russia. Russia views Ukraine as a key battleground in its geopolitical rivalry with the West.

Contrast this with Pakistan’s less visible but arguably more strategic approach. Despite heavy Western pressure, there’s no substantial evidence of Pakistan directly supplying ammunition to Ukraine. Russian officials even admitted that Pakistan deftly managed to fend off pressure without compromising its ties with Moscow. Meanwhile, some commentators rushed to frame Pakistan as pivoting toward the U.S., but the facts on the ground don’t support such a claim. Instead, Pakistan has avoided entanglement, while India finds itself increasingly caught in a geopolitical balancing act.

The China Factor and Diplomatic Pressures

Doval’s visit also comes against the backdrop of growing tensions along the Line of Actual Control (LAC) between India and China.

In St. Petersburg, Doval met Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi to discuss disengagement along the contested border. The LAC standoff has increased pressure on India to manage its diplomatic relations with China, which firmly aligns with Russia against the West. India’s attempts to balance this dynamic—aligning with Western powers while avoiding alienating Russia and China—appear ever more tenuous.

The stakes are high. Russia has made it clear that it expects India to remain a key partner, with President Putin expressing hopes for Modi’s participation in the upcoming BRICS Summit in Kazan scheduled for October 2024. Moreover, the ongoing discussions about military disengagement on the LAC pose another challenge to India’s foreign policy. India’s challenge lies in maintaining its strategic autonomy while avoiding the perception that it is leaning too far into the Western camp, especially as global tensions between major powers escalate.

Pakistan, by contrast, seems to be sailing across the same geopolitical waters with less fanfare and fewer missteps.

Its diplomacy with Russia, while quiet, has not required any high-profile clarifications or explanations. India, on the other hand, appears stuck in a diplomatic web of its own making, needing to clarify its moves to both the West and its Eastern allies.

The Bigger Question Is: How Long Can India Maintain This Balance?

Modi’s trip to Ukraine has triggered reactions from Moscow, while rising tensions along the Chinese border add further strain. India’s diplomatic flexibility is being stretched thin as it tries to position itself within both the Global North and the Global South. On one hand, India aims to leverage its growing economic and strategic clout to influence global affairs. It seeks alignment with the Global North’s economic and technological advancements. On the other hand, it strives to maintain its standing as a leader in the Global South, advocating for developing countries and pursuing strategic partnerships that align with its broader geopolitical goals.

Whether India can continue to navigate these treacherous waters without making a decisive geopolitical shift remains to be seen, but the pressure is undoubtedly mounting.

As the global geopolitical environment becomes more polarized, India’s position as a key player in both the Global North and South will be tested, and how it handles these competing interests will shape its future international standing.

SAT Commentaries’ are social media threads by various authors, reproduced here for website use. Views are their own.

SAT Commentary

SAT Commentaries, a collection of insightful social media threads on current events and social issues, featuring diverse perspectives from various authors.

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