Treaty Obligations, Flows and Enduring Hydro-Politics

The Kishanganga Hydroelectric Project stands as a  example of India’s aggressive water strategy against Pakistan. Built on the Kishanganga River known as Neelum in Pakistan, this 330 MW run-of-the-river dam diverts massive volumes of water through a 24 km tunnel into the Jhelum basin, directly reducing flows into Pakistan’s territory. Constructed at a cost of nearly $864 million with a 37-meter dam and advanced Pelton turbines, the project was permitted under the 2013 Permanent Court of Arbitration Award only on the condition that India maintain a minimum environmental flow of 9 cumecs downstream.

Unfortunately, India has repeatedly failed to honour this binding obligation. India consistently show flows dropping far below the mandated level, especially during critical lean periods. This violation directly harms Pakistan’s Neelum-Jhelum Hydropower Project and disrupts seasonal water availability for millions of acres of farmland in Azad Jammu and Kashmir and Punjab.

By withholding critical real-time hydrological data, India further compounds the crisis, leaving Pakistan unable to plan irrigation schedules, manage reservoirs or protect communities from both shortages and sudden surges.

Such actions represent a clear breach of the Indus Waters Treaty’s spirit and the PCA’s final award. For Pakistan, an agriculture-dependent economy where the Indus Basin supports over 90% of food production, these violations translate into reduced crop yields, heightened food insecurity and economic losses running into billions. Rural livelihoods, particularly for small farmers and downstream communities, face existential threats as river ecology deteriorates, fisheries decline and soil fertility suffers from inconsistent flows.

India’s pattern of non-compliance at Kishanganga is not merely technical but strategic. It undermines the entire rules-based framework of transboundary water governance and erodes the limited trust remaining between the two nations. Pakistan, as the lower riparian, bears disproportionate suffering despite the Treaty’s clear protections for Western Rivers.

In the face of India’s continued disregard for international obligations, Pakistan must intensify diplomatic efforts at global forums, strengthen monitoring mechanisms and seek enforcement of the PCA Award. Protecting the Neelum River’s flows is essential for Pakistan’s agricultural backbone, energy security, and long-term socio-economic stability.