The Architecture of Regional Destabilization

Pakistan’s representative, Counsellor Syed Atif Raza, at the Ninth Biennial Meeting of States (BMS-9) on the UN Programme of Action on Small Arms and Light Weapons, highlighted the serious regional threat posed by advanced weapons stockpiles in Afghanistan. He described these as a direct risk to neighbouring countries, including Pakistan, noting that the illicit transfer and spread of small arms are intensifying conflicts and weakening peace, security and socio-economic stability.

This diplomatic position found resonance in recent public remarks by retired Indian Army Colonel Rajesh Pawar. In a recent podcast with Shubankar Mishra, Pawar spoke of a convergence involving Afghanistan providing operational space and support, India offering financial resources and Israel supplying technology and intelligence assistance in activities targeting Pakistan.

Coming from an Indian military voice, these observations add external validation to Pakistan’s consistent position on the threats it faces.

Such alignments point to elements of what analysts have described as the “Doval Doctrine.” This framework emphasizes proactive sub-conventional measures to manage security challenges, focusing on internal pressures through sustained disruptions rather than direct conventional engagement. The western border is seen as a key area for maintaining such pressure.

Despite diplomatic efforts with Kabul, the persistence of sanctuaries for terrorist groups like the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) highlights a complex environment where ideological factors combine with external logistical and financial networks. Russia has also drawn attention to this issue. In March 2026, Russia’s Permanent Representative to the UN Security Council, Vassily Nebenzia expressed concern over the persistent presence of terrorist groups such as ISIL-Khorasan in Afghanistan, noting that the country continues to serve as a base for threats extending beyond its borders despite efforts by the de facto authorities.

A major amplifying factor is the large volume of NATO-era weaponry left in Afghanistan after 2021. Reports indicate billions of dollars in arms, including advanced systems, have entered illicit channels enabling groups such as the TTP and Baloch Liberation Army (BLA) to access thermal optics, drones, night vision and encrypted tools.

According to ACLED data, 2025 marked one of Pakistan’s most violent years in over a decade. Militant violence in the frontier provinces resulted in over 4,000 deaths, with the TTP involved in more than 1,000 violent incidents across the country and around 700 attacks or clashes with security forces in the first 11 months alone. This surge includes increased suicide bombings and operations in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan, reflecting an amplified insurgency with  cross-border dimensions.

Examples of such attacks include coordinated BLA attacks  in Balochistan targeting security forces and infrastructure. In early 2026, the BLA conducted multiple strikes, such as assaults on construction sites and Frontier Works Organization facilities in areas like Kharan, Khuzdar and Turbat where heavy machinery was destroyed.

These incidents demonstrate the targeted nature of violence aimed at disrupting development activities.

Afghanistan provides safe havens and operational space to TTP and BLA, India supplies funding and Israel offers advanced weapons, intelligence and technical support to destabilize Pakistan. Evidence includes the 2016 arrest of alleged RAW agent Kulbhushan Jadhav, who reportedly trained Baloch separatists to target Gwadar and Karachi ports.  Reports from Global Times and other sources have also highlighted growing India-Israel-Afghanistan intelligence coordination against Pakistan and Chinese interests in the region.

Infrastructure initiatives like the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) have faced targeted pressure. Attacks in Balochistan often align with efforts to disrupt regional connectivity and economic partnerships, affecting trade and energy routes linked to broader integration projects. In the minerals portion, attacks have specifically targeted mining and resource projects in Balochistan. The BLA has claimed responsibility for strikes near key sites like Reko Diq a major copper-gold project and other CPEC-linked mineral areas, including coordinated operations in January-February 2026 that hit infrastructure in mineral-rich districts such as Chagai and Kharan. These actions aim to undermine economic integration and resource development.

In addition to the recent BMS-9 statement, interventions at UN Security Council debates, Arria-Formula meetings and references in resolutions such as 2818 have consistently raised issues of arms flows, sanctuaries and cross-border concerns.

The issue extends beyond bilateral dynamics. It forms part of a wider regional architecture involving proxy actors, arms markets, intelligence linkages, ideological spaces and competing geopolitical interests. Recognizing this broader context supports a measured understanding of interconnected stability challenges in South and Central Asia. Practical steps such as curbing financing channels, accountability for safe havens, retrieval of illicit arms and consensus against externally supported destabilization are essential.

Retired Colonel Pawar’s remarks may not have revealed anything Pakistan’s security institutions did not already know. What they did reveal, however, is that the architecture of proxy destabilization in the region is no longer confined to strategic whispers and intelligence dossiers. It has now entered the public record.