Erdogan’s Islamabad Stop: Brotherhood, Strategy, and a $5B Gamble

In a display that’s equal parts nostalgia and calculated strategy, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s Islamabad stop on a two-day visit, February 12–13, 2025, is much more than a ceremonial handshake—it is a masterstroke in modern diplomacy. With Islamabad serving as the grand finale of his three-nation Asia tour, Erdogan’s arrival in Pakistan is a signal flare in an increasingly complex geopolitical landscape. 

Turkey’s strategic moves in the region, particularly post-Syria, have brought it into closer alignment with Pakistan, reflecting a mutual interest in addressing regional instability and security challenges.

Also See: Turkish President Erdogan to Visit Pakistan on February 12

A Tale of Two Visits

Erdogan’s 2025 stopover in Pakistan is a marked evolution from his last visit in February 2020. Back then, the focus was largely on solidifying a budding strategic partnership under then-leaders President Arif Alvi and Prime Minister Imran Khan. The geopolitical environment has shifted since, with Afghanistan’s instability and evolving regional dynamics shaping the bilateral relationship today.

Today’s visit is orchestrated under a different political rhythm—with Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and President Asif Ali Zardari at the helm—and comes with a robust agenda: 24 memoranda of understanding (MoUs) spanning trade, defense, energy, and technology, and an ambitious target to boost bilateral trade from around $1 billion to an eye-popping $5 billion. This bold bet on economic synergy is as data-driven as it is diplomatically daring. 

Geopolitical Chess in the Middle East

The timing of Erdogan’s Islamabad visit is anything but coincidental. The regional chessboard is being reconfigured in real time—most notably following the collapse of Assad’s regime in Syria, which has not only shifted power dynamics but also opened new corridors for Turkish influence. Erdogan’s remarks during his visit, laced with both pride and pointed criticism, indicated Turkey’s commitment to standing shoulder-to-shoulder with Pakistan on critical issues such as the Palestinian cause and the Kashmir issue. In one of his more striking public pronouncements, he condemned proposals—most infamously associated with Trump’s lingering influence in U.S. policy—to forcibly relocate Palestinians, calling such ideas “unlawful and morally unacceptable.”

The Joint Declaration from the 7th Session of the Pakistan-Turkey High-Level Strategic Cooperation Council also underscores this commitment by reiterating the two countries’ stance on Kashmir. Both nations condemned India’s continued military presence in the region, stressing that Kashmir’s future must be determined by the will of its people. The statement reaffirmed Pakistan’s position on the conflict, calling for the restoration of Kashmiris’ fundamental rights, particularly in light of the draconian measures imposed since India’s August 2019 revocation of Article 370. This demonstrates a clear, consistent position from both countries on the matter, signaling to the international community their unified stance.

The Joint Declaration also emphasized the importance of supporting the Kashmiri people in their pursuit of self-determination, consistent with relevant United Nations Security Council resolutions. It is clear that Erdogan’s message in Islamabad was not just about affirming Turkey’s commitment to Palestine but also about demonstrating his government’s continued support for Pakistan’s struggle in Kashmir. This nuanced, multifaceted approach signals a strategic alignment between the two nations, united not only in geopolitical interests but also in their advocacy for global human rights and justice.

Regional Stability and Counterterrorism Cooperation

Beyond their statements on Kashmir and Palestine, the Joint Declaration also emphasized a mutual commitment to counterterrorism efforts and the fight against extremist ideologies. Both nations acknowledged the growing threat of terrorist groups, including DAESH (ISIS), Al-Qaeda, and other militant factions operating in the region. The declaration underlined the importance of cooperation in countering terrorism, including intelligence sharing, counter-radicalization efforts, and joint military training.

A special focus was given to the evolving situation in Afghanistan, where both Turkey and Pakistan have shared security concerns. Both countries have highlighted the need for increased vigilance and cooperation in tackling cross-border terrorism, particularly as factions such as DAESH-Khorasan (ISIS-K) continue to exploit the instability in Afghanistan. The Joint Declaration expressed both countries’ resolve to combat the financing of terrorism, ensure stronger border security, and prevent the spread of extremist ideologies across the region.

Turkey’s growing security involvement in Afghanistan, along with its expertise in counterterrorism, will enhance Pakistan’s efforts to counteract groups like DAESH and the Taliban. The Joint Declaration highlights the shared commitment to strengthening cybersecurity and tackling emerging forms of transnational terrorism, both of which are pivotal priorities for both nations. As both countries confront the evolving regional threats, this partnership offers a strategic avenue for sharing intelligence and resources in the fight against these violent groups.

What Does Erdogan’s Islamabad Stop Mean for South Asia’s Geopolitics?

This visit also represents a broader shift in South Asia’s geopolitics, with Turkey positioning itself as an emerging voice of influence. Traditionally, Pakistan’s alliances have been shaped by its relationships with the United States and China, but Erdogan’s deepening engagement hints Turkey’s desire to stake a claim in regional security discussions. With the ongoing crisis in Afghanistan owing to the presence of terrorist safe havens in the country and India-Pakistan dynamics, Turkey is asserting itself as a reliable partner, offering both a moral stand and practical support for Pakistan’s security concerns. 

The “brotherhood” Erdogan speaks of is not just symbolic but a tangible geopolitical asset, as Turkey’s diplomatic reach extends into South Asia—a region where the influence of Western powers has traditionally been dominant.

While addressing a business forum, Erdogan criticized Israel for failing to uphold a ceasefire agreement, cautioning that the region was once again being pulled “toward blood and tears.” He reaffirmed his opposition to President Donald Trump’s plan to relocate Palestinians from Gaza. “Gaza belongs to our Gazan brothers and sisters and will remain so forever,” Erdogan declared in a televised speech from Islamabad. “The homeland for which the Palestinians have sacrificed tens of thousands of their children is not up for bargaining,” he further emphasized.

Turkey’s proactive stance in the Middle East, bolstered by a growing defense industry that includes indigenous projects like the MILGEM warships and advanced Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs), reflects a deliberate move away from Western dependency. In a region that is increasingly multipolar, Turkey’s burgeoning military and defense cooperation with Pakistan is a signal of both countries stepping into the geopolitical arena as stronger, independent players. For Pakistan, an ally long familiar with the need for self-reliance in defense, this pivot represents a significant opportunity to enhance indigenous capabilities through technology transfer and joint production deals.

Data Points and Diplomatic Dynamics

Beyond the colorful symbolism of flags, saplings planted, and 21-gun salutes, Erdogan’s visit is underpinned by hard data and strategic targets. Officials from both nations are working on converting a series of high-level MoUs into tangible economic outcomes. The aim to expand bilateral trade to $5 billion isn’t just wishful thinking—it’s supported by a series of progressive agreements covering digital trade, tariff liberalization, and even the creation of special economic zones for industrial collaboration. In the defense sector, data from the 2023 SIPRI report shows that Turkey is already Pakistan’s second-largest arms supplier, a partnership that has grown steadily through joint projects and technology sharing initiatives.

Moreover, both countries are looking to build on their shared history and cultural ties—often evoked with phrases like “brotherhood” and “kardeş” (brother in Turkish). This historical rapport is being leveraged to address modern challenges: from enhancing regional security in volatile neighborhoods to tapping into new economic opportunities amid global supply chain realignments.

Looking Ahead: A New Era of Strategic Synergy

What does the future hold for Turkey-Pakistan ties? If the latest round of agreements is any indication, the partnership is set to deepen and diversify. The comprehensive agenda on the table suggests a long-term strategic framework that goes well beyond traditional diplomatic niceties.

However, this growing alliance is not without its challenges. As both countries move toward greater collaboration, they must contend with a host of external pressures. Turkey’s alignment with Pakistan could complicate its relations with traditional NATO allies, particularly the United States, especially as both countries develop defense technologies in competition with Western systems. Similarly, Pakistan must deal with its longstanding relationship with China while managing a new, potentially powerful partner in Turkey.

So, The Take!

Erdogan’s Islamabad visit is a masterclass in balancing sentiment with strategy—a blend of heartfelt brotherhood and hard-nosed realism. It is an editorial in motion, written not just in signed agreements and policy speeches, but also in the reconfigured map of regional geopolitics. Today’s narrative is about concrete MoUs, ambitious trade targets, and a shared vision for a future where history, culture, and innovation converge.

In a world where diplomatic grandstanding often makes more noise than sense, Erdogan’s visit to Pakistan is a refreshing reminder that, sometimes, the best diplomacy is one that combines the warm glow of brotherhood with the cold, hard facts of mutual benefit. As both countries continue to deal with the complex dynamics of South Asia and the broader Middle East, the Turkey-Pakistan relationship could be one of the most consequential of the next decade.