A Conflict That Few People Pay Much Attention To

Rebel groups in Ethiopia have once again launched attacks on Ethiopian government forces. Few people are interested in the war in this African country, even though it affects other states.

Rivalries among the region’s larger players are playing out there. If the conflict intensifies, it could affect other countries as well and trigger a larger wave of migration. Finding a solution will not be easy.

Fighting has flared up again in Ethiopia’s Tigray region, for the umpteenth time. This time, the announcement came from the leadership of the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF). The movement attacked Ethiopian government forces in the north of the country.

But it was not alone. Other groups joined in: the Amhara Fano National Movement and the Oromo Liberation Army (OLA). Together, these groups formed a larger coalition fighting the central government in Addis Ababa.

The fighting has also spread to the Amhara and Afar regions. These clashes are nothing new; they have roots in the country’s history and its complex ethnic, linguistic, and religious makeup.

Roots and history

Ethiopia is home to a large number of different ethnic groups that speak different languages. It is the world’s most populous landlocked country, with more than 80 local languages.

In the past, the country was ruled by the Amhara, and Amharic was its only official language. Today, the Amhara make up 27% of the population. The Oromo are more numerous, accounting for more than 34% of the population, and they have their own language, Oromo.

It was not until 2020 that Ethiopia’s constitution recognized additional languages—Oromo, Tigrinya, Afar, and Somali—as official languages of the country.

Religious Demographics

Ethiopia is similarly diverse in religious terms. Most of the population is Christian: 44% belong to the traditional, historic, and distinctive Ethiopian Orthodox Church, while approximately 24% belong to other Christian denominations. More than 31% of the population is Muslim. Historically, Ethiopia was also home to many Jews, known as Falashas.

Relations with Eritrea

For many years, neighboring Eritrea was also part of Ethiopia. Local rebels there fought persistently for independence. It was not until the 1990s, after Mengistu’s communist regime collapsed in Ethiopia and the country was searching for stability and survival, that the Eritrean rebels achieved military success.

Ethiopia allowed a referendum in Eritrea, in which voters chose independence. Eritrea officially gained independence in 1993. Relations between the two countries remain tense, and they have gone through several armed conflicts.

Fighting Inside and Outside Ethiopia

The Oromo Conflict (2014–2018)

The current conflict is nothing new. In 2014, the government redrew the boundaries of the region that includes the capital, Addis Ababa, annexing part of the Oromo region. Fierce protests then erupted there. The government responded with repression.

The Oromo Liberation Army then entered the conflict, beginning attacks as a rebel armed group on government troops and facilities. The war in the region continued until 2018 and was one of the reasons for the resignation of the prime minister at the time.

The new prime minister, Abiy Ahmed, began negotiating with the rebels and introduced reforms and changes. In 2018, he signed a peace agreement with them, for which he received the Nobel Peace Prize the following year.

The Tigray War (2020–2022)

However, Abiy Ahmed was unable to continue with further changes. In 2020, he consolidated his power and governed with a single party. The Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) opposed this and began an armed struggle against government forces in the Tigray region.

The war cost thousands of lives and ended in 2022 with a victory for government forces. The TPLF had to sign a peace agreement in Pretoria, South Africa, lay down its arms, and recognize the authority of government forces over the Tigray region. The Amhara Fano National Movement also helped the government forces.

The Amhara Fano Rebellion (2023–2025)

In 2023, the government decided to dissolve all non-governmental armed movements and integrate them into the official army. The Fano movement opposed this decision and took up arms against government forces in the Amhara region. The fighting ended only after an agreement between Fano and the government in Addis Ababa in 2025.

The Rebel Coalition Formation

The situation did not calm down, however, and the rebel groups were dissatisfied with the terms that had been negotiated. Their leaders realized that they had no chance on their own. If each of them fought for its own interests in its own region, they would achieve nothing. So they joined forces and, on September 20, formed a large coalition comprising seven rebel movements.

The coalition includes the Ogaden National Liberation Front (ONLF), the Afar Revolutionary Democratic Unity Front, the Benishangul People’s Liberation Movement, the Gumuz People’s Democratic Movement, and the three groups mentioned above. The coalition has now reignited the fighting.

External Security Threats

In addition to several internal conflicts and its longstanding rivalry with neighboring Eritrea, Ethiopia also faces a threat from Somalia. Ethiopia has actively taken part in the fight against the terrorist organization Islamic State and the al-Shabaab movement in that country. It would be naive to assume that this is purely an internal matter and a domestic political struggle, with no involvement from outside players supporting different sides.

Foreign Influence on Events in Ethiopia

Role of Israel

Ethiopia has traditionally maintained good relations with Israel. The two countries established formal diplomatic relations as early as 1992, and have had close ties ever since. Ethiopia was historically home to a large Jewish community, known as the Falashas. In the 1990s, Ethiopia reached an agreement that allowed most of them to leave for Israel. Statistics indicate that approximately 145,000 Falashas live in Israel.

Role of the United Arab Emirates

Another major ally of Ethiopia is the United Arab Emirates (UAE). The UAE was one of the first countries to sign the Abraham Accords and establish diplomatic relations with Israel, and it maintains very close ties and an alliance with it.

The UAE provides Ethiopia with financial and military assistance. According to some reports, it even supplied the country with Calidus MCAV-20 armored vehicles and the Russian-origin Pantsir 1 air-defense system. The UAE even wanted to transfer older Mirage fighter jets to Ethiopia, which it was looking to get rid of. So far, however, it has not obtained France’s approval for the transaction.

Support for Opposition Movements

On the other side of the divide stands Eritrea, Ethiopia’s principal enemy. Most of the rebel groups are based in its capital, Asmara, and receive support from the country as well. Eritrea is, however, a small and relatively poor country, and its support alone would certainly not be enough. These movements also have large diasporas abroad, which send them aid and support in various forms.

Disputes with Egypt and the Renaissance Dam

There are major disputes between Ethiopia and Egypt, primarily over the construction of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, located in the Benishangul-Gumuz region—the home region of some of the rebel movements. Egypt opposed the dam from the outset because it fears that the reservoir will divert a significant share of the Nile’s water, leaving less for Egypt farther downstream.

Ethiopia nevertheless refuses to discuss the dam or make any concessions, considering it vital to its own interests. Egypt supports Ethiopian rebel movements in order to weaken Ethiopia and encircle it with various storms and conflicts.

There is even speculation that the renewed fighting may indirectly benefit Egypt. However, there is no evidence that Egypt directly supports these groups or is involved in the conflict in any way.

Dynamics in Neighboring Sudan

Neighboring Sudan takes a similar position to Egypt. However, Sudan is now weakened by its own civil war with the Rapid Support Forces, which control part of Sudanese territory.

These opposition forces are supported by the UAE, while Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and Turkey support the official Sudanese government in Khartoum. Reports have emerged of secret ties between the commander of these forces, Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, nicknamed Hemedti, and Israel. There is no evidence of direct Israeli support, however.

Somaliland Recognition and Port Access

In December 2025, Israel officially recognized Somaliland, which is internationally considered part of Somalia, although it has had its own relatively successful self-government for many years. In January 2026, Ethiopia also signed a memorandum of understanding with Somaliland.

The memorandum defined the boundary between Ethiopia and Somaliland and allowed Ethiopia to use Somaliland’s port, since Ethiopia has no access to the sea of its own. It also refers to a future plan to officially recognize Somaliland as an independent state.

The UAE has not officially recognized Somaliland, but it has a military base at its port of Berbera and maintains close relations with it.

Regional Opposition and Turkish Alignment

In addition to Somalia itself, Egypt, Sudan, Saudi Arabia, and Turkey strongly oppose recognizing Somaliland as an independent state.

Turkey has close relations with Somalia and is even building a military-space base in the country near the town of Warsheikh. Turkey, however, also manages to maintain very close and friendly relations with Ethiopia, including through the supply of military equipment.

Conclusion

Domestic Governance Challenges

The new conflict shows how difficult it is for Ethiopia to find a peaceful solution. On the one hand, the government should recognize the diversity of the country and allow all ethnic and religious groups greater freedom and a greater share in government.

On the other hand, representatives of all minorities should realize that it is impossible to recognize all of the country’s more than 80 languages as official languages and include every opposition group in the government. Unfortunately, the chances of reaching a peaceful compromise remain minimal, as does the prospect of the constant fighting and internal divisions coming to an end.

Geopolitical Escalation Risks

Ethiopia has also become caught up in rivalries among larger regional players and has been drawn into conflicts with other countries. Finding a solution to this tangle will be very difficult as well. Fortunately, so far the conflicts have always been temporary and territorially limited.

Although they have claimed many lives, they have not tended to spread further. But if the rivalries mentioned above intensify and conflicts in individual countries become interconnected—potentially involving Chad, Libya, and Yemen in addition to the countries already mentioned—the consequences would be far-reaching.

This article was originally published in Czech at Konflikt, kterého si nikdo moc nevšímá | Asiaskop, www.asiaskop.cz