The fourth year of the Taliban’s de facto authority in Afghanistan is marked by a profound structural paradox. While the regime in Kandahar has demonstrated ability to enforce central edicts, most notably the 95% reduction in poppy cultivation, it remains fundamentally at odds with the evolving global financial order. The release of the UN Global Counter-Terrorism Coordination Compact Guidance has introduced a new, human rights-centric benchmark for Countering the Financing of Terrorism (CFT). When viewed through the lens of the 16th UNSC Analytical Support and Sanctions Monitoring Team Report, it becomes clear that the Taliban’s governance model does not merely face a political hurdle for recognition, but a fundamental normative conflict with the agreed upon international financial system.
The Afghan economy under the Taliban exists in a state of precarious stability. According to the UNSC report, gross domestic product (GDP) fell by 6.5% in the first half of 2025, with unemployment reaching a staggering 75% (p. 12). Despite these metrics, the regime has managed to increase domestic revenue collection, driven by mining royalties and customs enforcement.
However, this resilience is undermined by the Sanctions Barrier. With at least 58 sanctioned members occupying senior roles in the de facto administration (p. 23), the regime remains largely disconnected from formal global banking. The shift from narcotics revenue to mining and martyr family transfers has not alleviated the liquidity crisis, as the absence of a recognized legal framework prevents the normalization of capital flows required for the regime’s ambitious infrastructure plans.
The Taliban’s primary claim to international legitimacy is their supposed suppression of terrorist groups. The UNSC report, however, describes this claim as not credible (p. 3). While ISIL-K has been degraded, it remains a resilient threat, evidenced by the high-profile assassination of the de facto Minister of Refugees in December 2024 (p. 16).
More critical for the CFT framework is the presence of Tehreek-e Taliban Pakistan (TTP), which operates from Afghan soil with varying degrees of sympathy from the Taliban leadership (p. 17). This harboring of TTP directly violates the 1999 International Convention for the Suppression of the Financing of Terrorism, which requires states to prevent the provision of safe havens. The report reveals that the family of TTP leader Noor Wali Mehsud reportedly receives a monthly stipend of 3 million afghanis from the de facto authorities (p. 18), a clear instance of state-adjacent financing of a designated terrorist entity.
The November 2025 CFT Guidelines
The new UN Guidance on Countering the Financing of Terrorism (CFT) emphasizes that measures taken to counter terrorism must comply with the principles of legality, necessity, and non-discrimination. Applying these pillars to the Taliban regime reveals significant failures. The Taliban, who are simultaneously fighting one terror group (Islamic State) and supporting another, are placed in a unique and complex position.
The UN Guidance stipulates that any restriction on rights must be clear, precise, and foreseeable to avoid arbitrary implementation (p. 15). The Taliban’s governance, by contrast, is characterized by opaque edicts. The October 2025 48-hour internet shutdown, reportedly ordered by the Amir over concerns of immorality, caused chaos in air traffic and banking without any legal basis or prior notice (p. 8). Furthermore, the removal of 18 academic subjects,including good governance and human rights, on the grounds of incompatibility with Sharia represents a failure of the principle of legality, as the offense of teaching these subjects is undefined and subject to the changing whims of the Kandahar clerical circle.
The 2025 UN Guidance identifies gender-neutrality in CFT as a risk, noting that “gender-blind risk assessments fail to consider how the adoption of legal… responses may violate fundamental rights” (p. 52). The Taliban’s policy of gender persecution, as identified by the ICC (p. 7), is not just a human rights issue, it is a financial exclusion issue. The UN Guidance highlights that CFT measures must not result in the exclusion of women-led civil society from funding. The Taliban’s restrictions on female aid workers (nurses, midwives) directly impede the delivery of humanitarian assistance, effectively nullifying the Humanitarian Carveouts intended by UNSC Resolution 2664 (p. 50).
The Guidance calls for effective independent oversight of intelligence agencies (p. 24). In Afghanistan, the General Directorate of Intelligence (GDI) operates as a primary tool of suppression and propaganda. The report notes the GDI’s Batar unit specifically monitors and controls Salafists, often leading to extrajudicial killings (p. 11). This lack of judicial oversight in financial and personal monitoring is the antithesis of the data protection standards required for a modern, compliant CFT environment.
Consequences of Applying Global Standards
Were the November 2025 CFT standards applied rigorously to Afghanistan, the implications for the Taliban would be severe.
Under the UN Guidance’s requirements for risk-based approaches (p. 9), financial institutions would be forced to categorize the Taliban de facto authorities as a High-Risk entity due to the absence of independent oversight and the documented stipends provided to TTP leaders.
As long as the regime restricts female workers, the”principled humanitarian action protected by the UN Guidance (p. 46) cannot be fully realized. This creates a deadlock where the international community cannot scale up aid without violating its own human rights-based CFT standards.
The Taliban’s move to place education and banking under religious indoctrination (p. 8) makes them institutionally incompatible with the requirement for technical compliance under FATF-style benchmarks.
A Normative Impasse
The 16th UNSC report concludes that regime unity is prized above all. However, the unity maintained by the Kandahar base is exactly what prevents the regime from adopting the reforms necessary for financial reintegration. The November 2025 UN Guidance makes it clear: the world is moving toward a financial system where human rights compliance is a prerequisite for security cooperation. By continuing to harbor regional militants and systematically erasing women from the public sphere, the Taliban are not just resisting political change, they are opting out of the legal and moral framework of the global economy. Without a fundamental shift toward the principles of legality and non-discrimination, the Islamic Emirate will likely remain a financial pariah, trapped between its internal stability and global isolation.
