Can BIMSTEC Replace SAARC? The Illusion of Exclusionary Integration

The regional dynamics of South Asia are undergoing a stark realignment, largely driven by India’s deliberate shift away from the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) towards the Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation (BIMSTEC). This strategic maneuver appears designed not just to foster new partnerships, but explicitly to circumvent and isolate Pakistan, raising profound questions about the viability of lasting peace and comprehensive cooperation in a region still grappling with deep-seated historical animosities, most notably the intractable Kashmir dispute.

India’s Disengagement: SAARC Scuttled, BIMSTEC Embraced

India’s disinterest in SAARC is less a consequence of the organization’s inherent flaws and more a calculated decision to render it defunct. For years, SAARC’s progress was indeed hampered by the bitter rivalry between India and Pakistan. However, rather than seeking to overcome these challenges within the existing multilateral framework, India effectively paralyzed SAARC, leveraging incidents like the 2016 Uri terrorist attack as justification to boycott summits and declare the forum “untenable.” This strategic withdrawal, while framed as a response to cross-border terrorism, effectively served to scuttle SAARC by depriving it of its largest and most influential member’s participation.

Simultaneously, India has aggressively promoted BIMSTEC, a grouping that conveniently excludes Pakistan (Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Myanmar, Nepal, Sri Lanka, and Thailand). This “SAARC minus Pakistan” approach is portrayed by India as aligning with its “Act East” and “Neighborhood First” policies, suggesting a focus on functional cooperation and maritime security in the Bay of Bengal. However, the underlying motive is clearly the diplomatic isolation of Pakistan within the South Asian regional architecture. India seeks to bolster its influence through this new alliance, projecting power across the Indo-Pacific, and positioning BIMSTEC as its preferred mechanism for regional engagement, thereby sidelining any forum where Pakistan might play a significant role. While BIMSTEC has shown some limited dynamism, it remains to be seen if it can truly deliver comprehensive regional integration without addressing the larger South Asian context.

Pakistan’s Counter-Narrative: SAARC Revival with Chinese Backing

In direct opposition to India’s exclusionary strategy, Pakistan remains a steadfast advocate for SAARC’s revival. Islamabad consistently champions the forum’s foundational importance in addressing shared regional challenges such as poverty, climate change, and collective security. For Pakistan, SAARC represents the only truly inclusive platform for South Asian cooperation.

Crucially, Pakistan’s push for SAARC’s resurgence is increasingly intertwined with China’s regional ambitions. Recognizing India’s dominant position, Pakistan, often supported by other smaller SAARC members, views China’s potential full membership or an enhanced role in SAARC as a vital mechanism to rebalance power dynamics. China, currently an observer, has expressed a clear interest in a more prominent position within SAARC. Pakistan actively seeks to leverage its “all-weather friendship” with Beijing, particularly through major infrastructure projects like the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), to secure Chinese backing for SAARC’s revitalization. The envisioned inclusion of China, with its immense economic and diplomatic clout, is seen by Pakistan as a means to inject renewed vigor into the dormant organization and challenge India’s attempts to dictate the terms of regional engagement.

The Elusive Peace: Why Excluding Pakistan Fails

The future of SAARC remains uncertain, largely due to India’s unwavering stance. The organization has been effectively dormant since 2014, with India insisting that no SAARC summit can take place as long as a member state is perceived to be sponsoring terrorism. This rigid position effectively holds the entire organization hostage to the India-Pakistan dynamic.

Beyond this bilateral deadlock, SAARC faces systemic challenges: the vast economic and military asymmetries between member states (particularly India’s “Big Brother” status), a cumbersome consensus-based decision-making process prone to gridlock, and a pervasive lack of trust rooted in historical disputes. Despite agreements like SAFTA, intra-regional trade remains abysmally low, reflecting a broader failure of true economic integration.

Ultimately, India’s strategy of bypassing Pakistan through BIMSTEC, while offering a pathway for cooperation with like-minded neighbors, falls short of addressing the fundamental requirements for comprehensive regional peace and stability. The intense and unresolved Kashmir issue, alongside the inherent geographical and geopolitical realities, dictates that no lasting peace or substantial regional integration can be achieved by cutting out a major power like Pakistan. The two nations, both nuclear-armed and deeply intertwined historically, must eventually find a way to engage meaningfully. Until then, the dream of a truly cooperative and prosperous South Asia remains elusive, perpetually overshadowed by unresolved conflicts and the strategic maneuvers of its most prominent players. The current geopolitical chessboard suggests that while India champions BIMSTEC, the ghost of an unfulfilled SAARC will continue to haunt the quest for a genuinely integrated South Asian future.