Tehran’s Tremors: Pakistan’s Predicament

The bold Israeli move of Operation Rising Lion has sucked the Middle East region into the whirlpool of instability and Pakistan is dangerously close to its churning waters. This is not a normal escalation, this is an intentional attack on the core of Iranian leadership and it brings a terrifying spectre of regime change. To Pakistan, with a troubled 900-kilometre frontier with Iran, the consequences are momentous, menacing our national security, economic stability and fragile diplomatic equilibrium with a viciousness which cries out to be examined with a searching intensity.

The Terrifying Prospect of Regime Change in Iran

The assassination of Bagheri and Salami, who were the pivots of the Iranian military machine, shows that Israel is interested in stirring up the power system in Tehran at the highest level. X platforms speculation, buzzing with news of the orchestration of Mossad secretly, gives a bleak image of a campaign that was aimed at splintering the rule of the Islamic Republic. Decapitated leadership would mean throwing Iran into a similar quagmire of Iraq after 2003, when the collapse of the state led to a hydra of militancy and lawlessness. In the case of Pakistan, the stakes are very high. Already a seethe of separatist insurgencies and smuggling networks, Balochistan has a porous border with Iran that is more sieve than shield.

The fall of the regime in Tehran would mean a flood of armed and dangerous militants, refugees or even rogue weapons and our western border will become a battlefield. The security apparatus of Pakistan, which is yet to come to terms with cross-border tensions with Indian forces in the recent past under the banner of “Operation Sindoor,” is already overburdened. The idea of having to face a new front in Balochistan where Jaish al-Adl and other such groups are already taking advantage of the instability in the region is a nightmare that Islamabad can do without.

Strategic Fears and Nuclear Dominoes

Pakistan’s strategic fears are aggravated by the fear of a regime-change. The nuclear programme in Iran, enhanced to within weapons-grade levels as vindicated by the International Atomic Energy Agency, is a time bomb. A failure in the clutches of the mullahs would mean that the stockpile of fissile material collected at Natanz would get into the possession of rogue elements or non-state actors, a prospect that sends shivers down the strategic planners in Islamabad. An uncontrolled Iran with nuclear weapons will become a destabilising force in the region and will put Pakistan in an untenable position as a nuclear power with a ragged border.

The secondary consequences would be swift: increased inspection of Pakistani nuclear security of its own, acute international relations with the world powers, and a spiral in the actions of the militants due to the emboldening effect of the fall of Iran. In addition, the attacks by Israel that caused the death of civilians including children in the residential areas of Tehran has sparked a fury of anger among the people of Iran. This anger of grief has the danger of rallying extremist organisations with transnational aspirations and some of them might just hit pay dirt in the border areas of Pakistan where we are already overstretched in our counter-terrorism operations.

A Precarious Diplomatic Balancing Act

Foreign policy wise, Pakistan is caught in a maze of conflicting loyalties. Saudi Arabia, which forms a pillar of our economic livelihood due to the loans, oil subsidies, and remittances, is a silent supporter of Israeli effort to check the Iranian influence. The de facto alliance of Riyadh with Tel Aviv puts Pakistan in a very delicate dilemma. On the other hand, Iran Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has evoked the Islamic unity asking Pakistan to condemn the Israeli atrocities asking it to support the Iranian cause. The need to keep viable relations with Tehran is highlighted by our recent trilateral discussions with Iran and India regarding Taliban rule in Afghanistan.

One wrong move in this finely choreographed dance can prove very expensive to Pakistan- losing the financial lifeline that is Saudi Arabia or creating an unstable neighbour whose instability may cross over our borders. A change of regime in Iran will further complicate this dilemma and Pakistan may have to deal with a divided Iranian scene dominated by warring factions, each seeking loyalty or vengeance. On the internal front, there is the ghost of sectarian conflict. The Sunni-Shia fault line in Pakistan, which has been carefully balanced with years of uneasy coexistence, may burst forth in case the downfall of Iran encourages the extremists on both sides, and our urban areas sink into sectarian bloodshed.

Dire Economic Consequences and Military Strain

The economic consequences are just as bad. Collapse of a regime in Iran has the potential to cripple the Strait of Hormuz where a fifth of oil in the world passes. Such an interruption would skyrocket international oil prices which will deal a body blow to the import-rich Pakistani economy. The price of fuel, which is already the target of popular irritation, would soar and inflation would follow which might cause the recent economic protests to look like a walk in the park in comparison. The rupee, always hanging by a thread, would crash taking away purchasing power and stoking inflation in urban centres such as Karachi and Lahore.

The energy cuts and the increasing expenses would fold up the small businesses which are the pillar of Pakistani economy and the rural population who rely on subsidised fuel to carry out agricultural activities would incur daunting losses. A government that is struggling with political dissent, as well as, a sedate population does not have the financial buffer to cushion against such a blow. The long-term consequence of the crisis may drive Pakistan into an economic as well as financial breakdown, social tensions have the capability of ripping apart the very fabric that holds the state together.

The armed forces of Pakistan, still basking in the afterglow of their successful “Bunyan Marsoos” operation against Indian provocations are already overstretched on a number of fronts. The crumbling of Iran would assert their focus at a time when both resources and spirit are strained. The ability of the military to defend Balochistan border, prevent the movement of militants and stabilize the internal situation would be stretched to the limit. The historical analogies are chilling: Pakistan involvement in Afghanistan quagmire cost us decades of treasure and blood. An Iranian implosion fuelled by the continued Israeli strikes against Tehran’s leadership has the potential of making that burden look minuscule and drawing Pakistan into a conflict spiral with no end in sight.

_{The views expressed in this article are the author’s own. They do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of the South Asia Times.}