Benjamin Netanyahu is unlikely to secure a majority, but it would be a mistake to write him off. A hung Knesset remains the most probable result. Even if he goes, Israel’s Iran policy would barely shift. What would change is the tone, both in dealings with Europe and on the occupied West Bank.
The numbers
The final polls released on 23 October placed the Netanyahu bloc at 50 seats. The Gadi Eisenkot camp stood at 52 according to Kan, 56 according to Channel 12 and 54 according to Channel 13. Arab parties were projected at 14 to 16 seats, while 61 is needed for a majority in the 120-member Knesset. Reuters places the anti-Netanyahu parties on 66 seats combined, but cautions that they may still fail to stitch together a coalition.
If he falls short
The shortest route for Eisenkot to reach 61 runs through the Arab parties. Avigdor Liberman refuses to sit with them, and Eisenkot has effectively closed that door too. The likely outcome is protracted negotiations, a shaky government or yet another election, with Netanyahu continuing as caretaker prime minister in the interim.
Iran
The election may change the man at the top, but not the strategy. Differences are of degree, not direction. Nearly every Jewish party supports the strikes on Iran.
Palestinians and Gaza
Eisenkot has called the idea of a Palestinian state “delusional”, while Naftali Bennett has said he is more right-wing than Netanyahu. That said, Eisenkot would rein in settler violence and bolster the Palestinian Authority. The European Council on Foreign Relations expects him to be less maximalist on Gaza, even as statehood remains off the table. Normalisation with Saudi Arabia stays frozen.
US and Europe
Donald Trump has once again endorsed Netanyahu, and ties with Washington will hold whoever wins. Chatham House analysts believe engagement with Europe would become more reasonable under a new government. But Europe is seeking movement towards Palestinian statehood that no likely Israeli government is prepared to offer.
Conclusion
For Pakistan, a new face in Jerusalem does not mean a new strategy. Israel’s line on Iran, on buffer zones and on Palestinian statehood will remain intact.
SAT Commentaries, a collection of insightful social media threads on current events and social issues, featuring diverse perspectives from various authors.
SAT Commentary
SAT Commentaries, a collection of insightful social media threads on current events and social issues, featuring diverse perspectives from various authors.
Originally published by The Watchtower. Featured by South Asia Times (SAT) for informational purposes, with attribution to the original author and publisher. The post-9/11 period
Afghanistan is no longer under a Taliban government but a Taliban-Al Qaeda hybrid regime that has transformed the country into a major hub of terrorism.
The Islamic State Khorasan Province (ISKP) continues to utilize eastern and southern Afghanistan, specifically Kunar, Nangarhar, and Helmand provinces—as primary operational hubs and staging grounds
The Financial Times asks whether Pakistan’s “military government” can make the economy grow. The article’s own evidence answers that question: the economy is already recovering.
Israel votes today
Bottom line
Benjamin Netanyahu is unlikely to secure a majority, but it would be a mistake to write him off. A hung Knesset remains the most probable result. Even if he goes, Israel’s Iran policy would barely shift. What would change is the tone, both in dealings with Europe and on the occupied West Bank.
The numbers
The final polls released on 23 October placed the Netanyahu bloc at 50 seats. The Gadi Eisenkot camp stood at 52 according to Kan, 56 according to Channel 12 and 54 according to Channel 13. Arab parties were projected at 14 to 16 seats, while 61 is needed for a majority in the 120-member Knesset. Reuters places the anti-Netanyahu parties on 66 seats combined, but cautions that they may still fail to stitch together a coalition.
If he falls short
The shortest route for Eisenkot to reach 61 runs through the Arab parties. Avigdor Liberman refuses to sit with them, and Eisenkot has effectively closed that door too. The likely outcome is protracted negotiations, a shaky government or yet another election, with Netanyahu continuing as caretaker prime minister in the interim.
Iran
The election may change the man at the top, but not the strategy. Differences are of degree, not direction. Nearly every Jewish party supports the strikes on Iran.
Palestinians and Gaza
Eisenkot has called the idea of a Palestinian state “delusional”, while Naftali Bennett has said he is more right-wing than Netanyahu. That said, Eisenkot would rein in settler violence and bolster the Palestinian Authority. The European Council on Foreign Relations expects him to be less maximalist on Gaza, even as statehood remains off the table. Normalisation with Saudi Arabia stays frozen.
US and Europe
Donald Trump has once again endorsed Netanyahu, and ties with Washington will hold whoever wins. Chatham House analysts believe engagement with Europe would become more reasonable under a new government. But Europe is seeking movement towards Palestinian statehood that no likely Israeli government is prepared to offer.
Conclusion
For Pakistan, a new face in Jerusalem does not mean a new strategy. Israel’s line on Iran, on buffer zones and on Palestinian statehood will remain intact.
SAT Commentary
SAT Commentaries, a collection of insightful social media threads on current events and social issues, featuring diverse perspectives from various authors.
SAT Commentary
Recent
Israel votes today
Bottom line Benjamin Netanyahu is unlikely to secure a majority, but it would be a mistake to write him off. A hung Knesset remains the
Missing Persons in Pakistan: A Human Rights Issue Turned into a Battle for State Legitimacy
Originally published by The Watchtower. Featured by South Asia Times (SAT) for informational purposes, with attribution to the original author and publisher. The post-9/11 period
Taliban-al Qaeda Hybrid Regime of Afghanistan
Afghanistan is no longer under a Taliban government but a Taliban-Al Qaeda hybrid regime that has transformed the country into a major hub of terrorism.
Thwarting ISKP Cross Border Expansion
The Islamic State Khorasan Province (ISKP) continues to utilize eastern and southern Afghanistan, specifically Kunar, Nangarhar, and Helmand provinces—as primary operational hubs and staging grounds
Pakistan’s Economic Recovery Deserves Recognition, Not Reduction to a Political Label
The Financial Times asks whether Pakistan’s “military government” can make the economy grow. The article’s own evidence answers that question: the economy is already recovering.