Afghan Gordian Knot

Originally published by Stratheia. Featured by South Asia Times (SAT) for informational purposes, with attribution to the original author and publisher.

Afghanistan has become a wicked problem for Pakistan as well as the region. The refractory and truculent nature of the Afghan Taliban regime has started manifesting itself in the shape of policies that are expedient as well as revanchist. The present Kandahar based regime combines the spiritual and temporal authority and claims complete sway over the entire Afghanistan.

After the chaos of warlordism and the bloodshed of resistance to foreign forces, the present totalitarian regime promised the dawn of a new era of stability, but those expectations have all foundered on the rocks of Taliban obduracy.

The inability to deliver the public goods at home is a direct consequence of a lack of inclusivity in sharing the spoils of office and an inability to connect with the world to break the asphyxiating hold of international isolation and economic sanctions.

The inability of the Taliban regime to rein in the farraginous blend of militant non state actors is a consequence of a deficit of capacity as well as the will. The present ruling junta has no stomach for taking up cudgels on behalf of international human rights and terrorism concerns.

It is for this very reason that the Mullah Hibatullah Akhund led Kandahar group willingly concedes ideological space and operational leverage to all kindred souls. Despite differences with ISKP the Tehrik e Taliban Afghanistan (TTA) does little to eliminate it from Afghan soil despite knowing fully well the cost of mollycoddling this transnational terrorist outfit.

A similar attitude prevails vis a vis Tehrik e Taliban Pakistan (TTP) that operates under the patronage of TTA sharing funding, recruits, and the training areas. ETIM, IMU and a slew of smaller non state terrorist entities share the same security umbrella of the Taliban regime in Afghanistan.

For countries like Pakistan that share 17 divided tribes with Afghanistan and a British era easement rights border crossing policy, the dilemma is even harder. The LEAs in Pakistan keep thwarting the ingress attempts of the TTP but despite heavy casualties the flow of terrorists continues.

In the absence of Afghan Taliban regime’s seriousness in countering the TTP, the counter terrorism approach of Pakistani LEAs is akin to mowing of the grass that keeps growing right back. If the water of the terrorist support is not dried at the source, the Persian wheel like flow of TTP terrorists would continue.

The external powers supporting the TTP terrorism add another layer to this complexity. The flow of arms and finances to TTP in Afghanistan is not a hidden fact but unfortunately the geopolitical rivalries are trumping the international counter terrorism commitments.

While the non state terrorist entities thrive on a permissive environment for crime and terrorism in Afghanistan, the world risks the reincarnation of the demons of 9/11. For Russia the March 22, 2024 attack on Crocus City Hall in Krasnogorsk, a suburb of Moscow, where 140 people died, was a shocking reminder of the terror that stalks the world through Afghanistan.

ISKP and the Taliban leadership both nurse a hatred against Russia due to Soviet invasion of Afghanistan, Russian role in Syria and other historical reasons. Despite claims of differences, the Afghan Taliban and ISKP share several commonalities including the ideology and pecuniary motives of benefiting from a conflict economy, thriving on organized crime.

Pakistan has tried its best to engage Afghan Taliban diplomatically and economically by highlighting incentives for infrastructure and energy corridors, linking Pakistan to Central Asia through Afghanistan. Unfortunately, the medieval mindset of Taliban leadership and their internal unrest have put paid to all such efforts.

As a result, the international isolation of Afghanistan has continued whilst the country has descended into an internecine conflict and the population into penury. Afghanistan today presents the visage of a war economy thriving on illicit economic rents of narco-trafficking, smuggling and organized crime. Pakistan has very sincerely tried to cut this Gordian knot of Afghan obstinacy through bilateral and multilateral regional initiatives.

These include trilateral Pakistan, Afghanistan and the China forum, Quadrilateral Pakistan, Iran, Afghanistan and China Forum and the Moscow format comprising Pakistan, Afghanistan, Iran, Central Asian States, Russia, India and China.

During the recently concluded Moscow Format meeting Pakistan highlighted Afghan regime’s double dealings and tolerance of terrorist entities like TTP, while the Taliban regime’s delegation resorted to the usual dissembling tactics of denialism.

Despite the best efforts of Russia as a host nation the Taliban delegation refused to concede its shortcomings and as a result no common statement could be issued by the forum. The Russian compulsion to forge a cooperative relationship with Taliban to counter ISKP is well understood but perhaps what is not understood by Russia is the nature of entente cordiale between Taliban and the ISKP.

Appeasing Taliban in the hope of eliciting a positive response is a Sisyphean endeavour as it is in the nature of the beast to expand its predatory agenda. The best course for regional and the international community is to exert all possible diplomatic and economic pressure on Taliban regime to bring a meaningful change in its pro violent non state actor policies.

Already in Northern, Eastern and even Western provinces the anti Taliban resistance by Afghan Freedom Front (Yasin Zai), National Resistance Front (Ahmed Masaud), and Afghan United Front (General Sami Sadat) is gaining traction due to oppressive policies of Taiban.

The Afghan Gordian knot needs to be cut through a regional and international consensus due to the threat posed to the entire world by the terrorist mosaic in Afghanistan.

Dr Raashid Wali Janjua

The writer is a defence and security expert with a PhD from NUST. He may be reached at rwjanj@hotmail.com