Over the last six months of war between Iran and US-Isarel, Iran has gained preponderance as a country standing tall despite losses it suffered. Iran had no choice but to retaliate the war thrusted on it without credible reasoning.
It was in talks with the US on nuclear issue and suddenly a poorly planned aggression was waged against it by the world’s two best militaries. The very first onslaught brought colossal loss of lives from politico-religious and military figures to the civilians least to mention the innocent school girls of Minab.
Iran was not expected to display chivalry, resilience and tenacity but it did. Now that there are renewed efforts on part of Pakistan to broker another peace deal between Iran and the US the road ahead in the region seems bumpy for variety of reasons.
A general belief that peace will return to the area is delusional at best as there are factors that are not being taken into  account as of now.  Â
Before war was commenced, January 2026 saw latest spat between Iranians and the government. The US President Donald Trump expected overthrow of regime by the protestors however it was brutally crushed by the government despite outside helpers had an ingress. It did not happen so the war was waged with the assumption that people would come out and coup would be so easy.
Unmindful of the sanctity and importance of Persian identity for the people of Iran, the US leadership drew wrong conclusions and so the war also went wrong. Pakistan’s hectic efforts to bring peace at last could convince belligerents to agree to Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding after forty days of war. Most of the 14 points therein favored Iran and the US administration was criticised at home for not securing a deal better than Obama administration’s JCPOA.
The war accrued United States no benefits but Israel’s vengeance was somewhat fulfilled. It is important to note that the US negotiated and agreed upon MoU with the Iranian leadership who represented same ideological background.
The regime that was once considered evil was therefore endorsed by the US who also earned them overwhelming domestic support by waging an unjust war. Iran is today politically emboldened economically and militarily weak though.
It is resurgent Iran that is adamant on controlling Strait of Hormuz to the dislikes of many. With Oman it has reportedly agreed upon some mechanism but vows that the waterway will be opened for shipping when the US adheres to its pledges most ostensibly as per Islamabad MoU.
A domestically supported regime in Iran will like to assert itself on geo-politics of the region to the irk of Iran’s adversaries who will have an opportunity to further bleed an already economically and militarily weakened rival so that it may not be able to radiate threat. As a result, although Strait of Hormuz will be opened and the US will lift naval blockade, the region may not see calm and peace for long.
The controlling of Strait of Hormuz has been witnessed by the world with amaze. It has brought forward new lessons but most importantly the change in its status and stature in the offing is going to decide future of region which will have imprints on overall geo-politics of the world. It will never be the strait like before 28 February 2026 but will be controlled either by Iran or the world.
Iran will never like ships of other navies to patrol its territorial waters for the sake of ensuring freedom of navigation. So, it’s a compulsion for Iran to retain control. To obviate adverse effects of closure of strait in future, alternatives will be identified and executed by the regional and extra regional countries. Countries like Oman, KSA, Yemen, Lebanon and Pakistan may get benefitted out of such a situation.
It will however devalue Strait of Hormuz and Iran will lose its leverage over it. That will be a time when the region may once again see a devastating conflict. Also, an air of polarization is vivid in the region where alignment of few countries is differing. The KSA led Multinational Maritime Defence Coalition and Makkah Defence Agreement between Pakistan, KSA and TĂĽrkiye provide some evidence of this division.
There are growing prospects for pronounced role of I2U2 (India, Israel, UAE, US) in the region. Under such an environment, it is important for the regional countries to come closer and form broader security coalition.
Makkah Defence Agreement is a viable step in this regard. As soon as it was signed, there were two criticisms raised against it; one that it was Muslim NATO and other it was Sunni coalition. There is therefore a need to invite other countries especially China and Iran to join it which will dispel any such apprehensions.
An agreement between Iran and the US may be reached yet region may not find eternal peace due to so many Liers in Waiting to fulfill their designs. But for the US, Iran’s viability as an irrational actor is also important which provides credence to its stay in the region.
Will US let Liers in Waiting to completely spoil the broth or will it allow them some liberty of action to satisfy their hunger is a question that the world will like to seek answer of. The region is however unlikely to revert back to the normalcy that prevailed before 28 February 2026.
