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2024 in Retrospect—As the clock ticks down to midnight, 2024 bows out, leaving behind a mixed legacy—a year heralded as the ‘Year of Democracy but also one marked by unmet aspirations and geopolitical turbulence. With over four billion people in more than 50 countries casting their votes, the world seemed poised for a democratic renaissance. Yet, as the curtains close, one must ask: did the promise of democracy transform into tangible progress, or did it merely echo as an unfulfilled anthem?
2024 in Retrospect: South Asia’s Trials and Transformations
South Asia, often the stage for global power plays, encapsulated the year’s contradictions.
Bangladesh in Flux
In Bangladesh, January’s general elections triggered seismic shifts. Sheikh Hasina’s contested victory gave way to nationwide protests and her eventual ouster, replaced by an interim government led by Muhammad Yunus. Bangladesh also witnessed the growing footprint of Al-Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent (AQIS), which sought to exploit political instability to expand its recruitment and influence. Under Yunus, Bangladesh pivoted from secularism towards an Islamized state and recalibrated its foreign relations, warming to Pakistan while distancing from India—a realignment with reverberations across the subcontinent.
Also See: Is Bangladesh Becoming an Islamic State
Pakistan’s Fight on Multiple Fronts
In Pakistan, February’s elections saw Shehbaz Sharif lead a coalition amid allegations of electoral manipulation and widespread unrest. The specter of terrorism, economic meltdown, sanctions, and geopolitical pressures further strained the nation. The year revealed a dangerous convergence of interests among groups targeting Pakistan, including the ethno-religious groups like Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), and Islamic State Khorasan Province (ISKP) on one end, particularly in border regions, and the ethnocultural groups like the Pashtun Tahafuz Movement and Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA) expanded their activities and operations. Notably, an alignment between ethno-religious groups like TTP and ethnocultural socio-political movements like PTM was observed, blurring the lines between terrorism and political dissent.
Pakistan also launched multiple airstrikes targeting terrorist hideouts in Afghanistan and Iran, hitting key facilities linked to the TTP, and BLA mainly, the groups that have increasingly targeted the Pakistani state and the Chinese interests within Pakistan.These decisive precision strikes demonstrated Pakistan’s strong commitment to safeguarding its sovereignty, as it confronted not only domestic challenges but also external threats emanating from regional sanctuaries.
Reports suggest that the year saw a 40 percent increase in terrorism. The grim toll included 570 law enforcement officers and 351 civilians lost to terrorism, underscoring the deepening crisis of governance and security.
Also See: Pakistan’s TTP Challenge: Strikes, Talks, and Solutions
Afghanistan’s Shattered Stability
In Afghanistan, the Interim Government of the Taliban regime faced mounting internal and external pressures. As the year draws to a close, Afghanistan’s National Resistance Front (NRF) claimed responsibility for two significant attacks, signaling the ongoing resistance against the Interim Government’s rule and the fragile security landscape. The inconsistent counterterrorism stance also allowed groups like the TTP and ISKP to flourish, contributing to regional instability. Pakistan’s airstrikes against terrorist hideouts in Afghanistan, particularly along the Pakistan-Afghanistan border, were a direct response to these growing threats emanating from Afghan territory. The country’s security situation worsened as extremist elements sought to capitalize on the Taliban’s fractured control over Afghanistan.
Diplomatically, Afghanistan made slight strides in its relations with China and Russia, both of which expressed cautious engagement with the current Interim Government, viewing it as a strategic partner in regional stability and counterterrorism efforts. However, the West remained distant, maintaining skepticism over the Interim Governement’s governance, particularly regarding human rights abuses, women’s rights, and its failure to curb terrorism emanating from Afghan soil. This diplomatic divide highlighted Afghanistan’s complex position in the global arena, as it balanced competing interests from major powers while grappling with internal unrest and security challenges.
Additionally, the Interim Government’s human rights record remained a source of international condemnation. Restrictions on women’s education, freedom of expression, and the widespread use of repressive measures against dissenting voices added to Afghanistan’s governance crisis. The lack of inclusive government and the resurgence of extremist factions compounded the challenges faced by the Afghan people, as their fundamental rights continued to be undermined under the current setup.
Also See: ISKP’s Threat to AIG: What’s at Stake for Afghanistan?
India: Beneath the Surface
India’s marathon elections from April to June reinforced Narendra Modi’s dominance, but not without controversy. The BJP’s Hindutva-driven policies sparked concerns over secularism and minority rights, while Kashmir remained a grim tableau of repression. Environmental degradation, particularly in flood-prone areas, highlighted South Asia’s vulnerability to climate change amidst insufficient progress on climate finance commitments. Even as India expanded its global clout, joining new alliances and projecting naval power in the Indo-Pacific and Middle East, its domestic challenges loomed large.
Furthermore, India’s increasingly bold transnational repression also came under scrutiny. Human rights activists, journalists, and dissenting diaspora members reported surveillance, harassment, and even abductions abroad. From Canada to the UK, India’s covert operations targeting Khalistan activists added fuel to an already contentious global debate over its democratic credentials.
Also See: India’s Strategy Crisis: Slip-ups and the Growing Mess
Terrorism’s Evolving Dynamics
2024 marked an evolution in global terrorism, with Al-Qaeda focusing on a decentralized operational model while retaining influence through AQIS in South Asia. ISIS demonstrated resurgence through its ISKP affiliate, which intensified attacks in Afghanistan and Pakistan.
At one side, Jolani’s Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham in Syria was paradoxically viewed by some Western observers as a “lesser evil” in the fight against ISIS, reflecting shifting perspectives in counterterrorism.
On the other side, the Afghan Government’s inconsistent counterterrorism commitments further emboldened ISKP and the TTP, while cross-border movements blurred operational boundaries. In Afghanistan, the TTP and ISKP exploited gaps in governance, escalating threats to regional security.
Also See: The Fall of Assad: Syria’s Future in Crisis
The Middle East: An Unfolding Tragedy
The Middle East remained a theater of conflict and despair in 2024, defined by the Palestine-Israel war that claimed over 45,000 lives in Gaza alone. The unprecedented scale of destruction, fueled by intensified Israeli bombardments, drew widespread condemnation but little effective international intervention. While the United Nations struggled to negotiate ceasefires, Western nations faced accusations of complicity for their unwavering support of Israel.
The humanitarian catastrophe in Gaza highlighted the fragility of global diplomacy, with Arab states, notably Qatar and Turkey, voicing strong opposition. The Abraham Accords faced setbacks as the Israeli atrocities in the Gaza War derailed normalization efforts between Israel and Saudi Arabia. Meanwhile, Syria’s regime change, driven by external interventions, left the country in further disarray, as extremist groups exploited the chaos.
Also See: Gaza, Kashmir, and Damascus: The Cost of Conflict
Global Power Plays: Democracy Versus Reality
The geopolitical chessboard extended beyond South Asia and the Middle East. The expansion of BRICS and the re-election of Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump highlighted an evolving world order. While Russia grappled with setbacks in Ukraine and Syria, Trump’s return signaled a renewed U.S. focus on China containment and alliances with Indo-Pacific partners. Yet, the glaring inequities in U.S. policies—sanctioning Pakistan’s missile program while ignoring India’s—cast a shadow over its credibility as a champion of democracy.
Global forums like COP29 in Baku, Azerbaijan from 11 to 22 November 2024. saw contentious debates over climate finance. Developing nations, particularly from South Asia and Africa, demanded tangible commitments for loss and damage funding. Despite lofty promises, wealthier nations fell short, underscoring the ongoing disparity between rhetoric and action. The Middle East added another chapter of despair, with Gaza’s death toll exceeding 45,000 and Syria’s regime change fueling instability. Meanwhile, Afghanistan remained a powder keg, with the Afghan Taliban’s ties to extremist groups like the TTP threatening regional peace.
Also See: U.S. Sanctions on Pakistan’s Missile Program : Impacts and Geopolitics
A Call for Collective Action
In retrospect, the lessons of 2024 are stark. A system of governance without justice is a hollow promise, and geopolitical rivalries that exploit internal divisions only exacerbate crises. The visible convergence of interests among anti-state elements in Pakistan, including the TTP, ISKP, and BLA, demands a unified and strategic counterterrorism response. For PTM, it necessitates addressing the grievances of the communities affected during the War on Terror. Similarly, climate finance and global cooperation on terrorism must move beyond symbolic gestures. As South Asia stands at the crossroads, its nations must prioritize collaboration over confrontation, addressing shared challenges like terrorism, climate change, and economic disparity. Dialogue and inclusivity—not divisive ideologies—offer the best hope for the region.
As the new year dawns, the world must move beyond the rhetoric of governance to its realization. Will 2025 bring the resilience to mend fractured systems and a fractured world? Or will it simply rehash the failures of the year gone by? The answer lies in the choices we make, for the clock doesn’t just tick—it warns.
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