March 2021 has been a seminal month due to numerous developments in the South Asian Arena. Events that would define the future trajectory of the geopolitical affairs of the region, would trace their advent to the March of 2021. The first event to mark its significance was the first of its kind ‘National Security Dialogue’. The event took place in Islamabad, Pakistan, on the 17th of March.
Present at the event were public policy practitioners, politicians, and top military brass. Most importantly, local and foreign academia were also present. The event was notable for straight forward policy statements along with an “apparent shift” in the security perceptions of Pakistani political and military elites.
Setting a new course at Islamabad
The Islamabad Security Dialogue aimed at establishing a new strategic course. It featured encompassing a vision of unity, regional connectivity, and global development partnerships. What is noteworthy was the Prime Minister’s unveiling of the first-of-its-kind Advisory Portal of National Security Division.
The statements delivered by the top political executives of the country truly set a precedent of optimism in the event. Following suit, the top army brass supported with similar statements. This signals a change in the traditional security thought process that prevailed in the military junta of the country. Pakistan for the first time would be comprehensively framing a security doctrine. A doctrine that would entail the non-essential dimensions of security such as environmental, food, and economic security. This symbolizes a significant shift from the ubiquitous military definitions of security.
The Heart of Asia
Accompanying the dialogue, just a week later followed the ‘Heart of Asia Istanbul- Process (HOA-IP)’ conference. The multinational level is the ninth among such exchanges that have been taking place annually since 2011. This endeavor particularly aimed at providing a platform for regional connectivity. It serves as a steppingstone for the resolution of security-oriented issues that have marred Afghanistan in particular.
As the HOA-IP has proceeded from 2011 to 2021, it has evolved in its structure along with roles. Emerging as a venue of political dialogue to enhancing its framework for inclusion of Confidence-Building Measures (CBMS), the HOA has played a significant role in bringing Afghanistan and its issues into the spotlight. This spotlight was much needed. It provided a linear platform to the HOA’s 15 member states as well as international organizations to engage in a constructive dialogue that would enhance regional cooperation.
Islamabad’s dialogue and HOA-IP signify the importance of region-oriented policymaking. Subsequently, it provides an impetus to actors to seek peaceful alternatives to supposed military problems. Afghanistan has entered its 20th year. Unfortunately, Afghanistan was not able to substantiate any of the major objectives of America or its allies. On the contrary, the country witnessed more instability as well as domestic bifurcation. We witnessed the rise of global terror outfits that were clandestinely backed by other regional states. This not only complicated any peace initiative but served as fuel to an already raging fire by demanding more military solutions.
A Mutually Shared Afghan Peace
The consonance of these initiatives lies in the fact that peace for the region is dependent on peace in Afghanistan. The advent of a region-oriented stratagem that was presented in Islamabad dialogue has significant underpinnings of an all-inclusive policy for regional states: Afghanistan and India in particular. Connecting the future security discourse with geo-economics and especially pertaining to Afghanistan symbolizes Pakistan’s peaceful resolve. Pakistan has been wrongfully lambasted for stagnating Afghanistan’s economic potential. This was done particularly at the behest of actors who could not witness feasible cooperation between Pakistan and Afghanistan.
Pakistan’s army chief’s statements for Afghanistan on the first-of-its-kind security dialogue that would direct future policymaking, symbolize how Pakistan sees regional economic interdependence. Mentioning of Pak-Afghan Transit Trade Agreement, establishing border markets and invitation to join CPEC is enough a rejoinder to incriminations of destabilizing Afghanistan. Pakistan’s reiteration in her security dialogue depicts the goodwill, the state holds for the Neighbours.
How can we forget the hiatus surrounding the “HOA-IP” where the analysts speculated a meeting between Pakistan and Indian foreign ministers. In the light of emerging détente between these contending neighbors. It can be hypothesized that such platforms are important in backdoor diplomacy, as well as cooperating on matters of mutual interest which would not have been possible bilaterally. This is what makes dialogue initiatives noteworthy. They bring all stakeholders, which would otherwise be facing each other on a battlefield; to a negotiating table. Even if a peaceful resolution is not achieved, this helps in melting the ice which is all that is needed to form a springboard that pushes for a probable détente.
Misemploying Dialogue Venues
Establishing the premise for the conduciveness of such dialogues (Islamabad Security Dialogue and HOA-IP), it is equally necessary to highlight wrongful intents using the same methodology. Although non-partisanship is not imperative for such dialogues, the rationale-building for peace can be calibrated by the inclusiveness along with the averments declared in such dialogues. The Herat Security Dialogue (HSD) is held annually at the behest of the Afghan Institute of Security Studies, where discussions are often pervaded with blame game as well as the propagation of selective discourses. What could have been a homegrown dialogue becomes a site for selected speakers, as well as the audience, to destroy any propitious outcome. Thus, it downplays the sincerity in the endeavors of other peace initiatives.
The future of Afghanistan holds multiple possible outcomes. The actual gauging depends on how Biden deals with Afghanistan. Prolonged troop stay will result in factional dissent that can take things south. However, the silver lining is that belligerents have realized the importance of dialogues. The upcoming peace talks in Turkey succeed this year’s HOA-IP. This would be an executive dialogue while the HOA-IP was a ministerial one. All stakeholders have to be very cautious as time passes by. It is seminal to identify who wants peace in a true sense and who wants a derailment.
The views expressed in this article are the author’s own. They do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of the South Asia Times.
Hammad Waleed is a National Defense University graduate with a keen eye on regional dynamics, history, and global affairs.
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