Energy intelligence firm Kpler projects that Iran’s crude and condensate revenue will reach zero by mid-December 2026, the first time in the country’s history, according to its 22 October analysis. At the same time, the International Atomic Energy Agency told the United Nations Security Council on 27 October that it has not verified Iran’s uranium enriched up to 60% since June 2025. Washington is squeezing Tehran’s economy, but it is losing sight of the material that matters most.
Kpler found that Iranian oil afloat outside the US blockade fell to zero by mid-October, down from a peak of 88.8 million barrels on 14 July. About 43 million barrels are trapped behind the blockade, and no crude or condensate cargo has loaded since 25 August. Kpler’s data also showed Gulf crude leaving the region, excluding Iran, above pre-war levels on 22 October, meaning the blockade was hitting Iranian barrels, not the Gulf’s.
The nuclear picture is far less clear. The agency’s last estimate is 440.9 kg enriched up to 60%, dated 13 June 2025, with 432.9 kg of it verified. Rafael Grossi told the Security Council that the agency still cannot confirm that no nuclear material was diverted. The agency has seen no repair or rebuilding at struck sites, and Bushehr is the only site where inspectors are working.
In March, Grossi placed “a bit more than 200 kilograms” at Isfahan, in tunnels that Reuters said appeared to escape heavy damage in June 2025. Iran notified the agency of a new enrichment plant at Isfahan on 12 June 2025. Inspectors have never been inside it, and the agency does not know exactly where it is.
This is where the hawkish approach falls short. President Trump told Axios on 2 November there is “no rush”. He said, “We crippled them financially. They have no money.” Asked that day whether he would strike Iran after the midterms, he said “No”, per Reuters. Prime Minister Bibi Netanyahu has pushed for strikes right after the vote, per Axios. Bombs cannot locate a plant that no one can find, and an empty treasury does not reveal where 440 kg of near-weapons-grade uranium is stored. Only verification can do that, and verification requires talks.
Those calling for more strikes have no plan for the uranium the world cannot see. Financial pressure has achieved what it can. It has emptied Iran’s oil revenue without accounting for its uranium. Getting inspectors back into Isfahan depends on negotiation, not another round of bombing.
SAT Commentaries, a collection of insightful social media threads on current events and social issues, featuring diverse perspectives from various authors.
SAT Commentary
SAT Commentaries, a collection of insightful social media threads on current events and social issues, featuring diverse perspectives from various authors.
Originally published by Dawn. Featured by South Asia Times (SAT) for informational purposes, with attribution to the original author and publisher. When Saudi defence minister
Originally published by The Express Tribune. Featured by South Asia Times (SAT) for informational purposes, with attribution to the original author and publisher. In late
Energy intelligence firm Kpler projects that Iran’s crude and condensate revenue will reach zero by mid-December 2026, the first time in the country’s history, according
In October, the anti-Taliban resistance in Afghanistan more than doubled its attacks compared to September, with the Afghan United Front (AUF) claiming the most operations
Originally published by Long War Journal. Featured by South Asia Times (SAT) for informational purposes, with attribution to the original author and publisher. In October,
Iran’s Oil Money Runs Dry While The Uranium Question Stays Open
Energy intelligence firm Kpler projects that Iran’s crude and condensate revenue will reach zero by mid-December 2026, the first time in the country’s history, according to its 22 October analysis. At the same time, the International Atomic Energy Agency told the United Nations Security Council on 27 October that it has not verified Iran’s uranium enriched up to 60% since June 2025. Washington is squeezing Tehran’s economy, but it is losing sight of the material that matters most.
Kpler found that Iranian oil afloat outside the US blockade fell to zero by mid-October, down from a peak of 88.8 million barrels on 14 July. About 43 million barrels are trapped behind the blockade, and no crude or condensate cargo has loaded since 25 August. Kpler’s data also showed Gulf crude leaving the region, excluding Iran, above pre-war levels on 22 October, meaning the blockade was hitting Iranian barrels, not the Gulf’s.
The nuclear picture is far less clear. The agency’s last estimate is 440.9 kg enriched up to 60%, dated 13 June 2025, with 432.9 kg of it verified. Rafael Grossi told the Security Council that the agency still cannot confirm that no nuclear material was diverted. The agency has seen no repair or rebuilding at struck sites, and Bushehr is the only site where inspectors are working.
In March, Grossi placed “a bit more than 200 kilograms” at Isfahan, in tunnels that Reuters said appeared to escape heavy damage in June 2025. Iran notified the agency of a new enrichment plant at Isfahan on 12 June 2025. Inspectors have never been inside it, and the agency does not know exactly where it is.
This is where the hawkish approach falls short. President Trump told Axios on 2 November there is “no rush”. He said, “We crippled them financially. They have no money.” Asked that day whether he would strike Iran after the midterms, he said “No”, per Reuters. Prime Minister Bibi Netanyahu has pushed for strikes right after the vote, per Axios. Bombs cannot locate a plant that no one can find, and an empty treasury does not reveal where 440 kg of near-weapons-grade uranium is stored. Only verification can do that, and verification requires talks.
Those calling for more strikes have no plan for the uranium the world cannot see. Financial pressure has achieved what it can. It has emptied Iran’s oil revenue without accounting for its uranium. Getting inspectors back into Isfahan depends on negotiation, not another round of bombing.
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