The complex linkages between climate change and geopolitical issues are becoming more evident every day with South Asian countries being prevailing examples of contested resources and the potential for violent conflicts emerging.
As climate change intensifies, South Asia faces a confluence of threats: resource scarcity, food insecurity, and economic decline.
This crisis demands urgent international collaboration to address the region’s already strained water resources, geopolitical rivalries, and the worsening impact of climate change.
The Kashmir Conflict: A Microcosm of Climate Change and Geopolitics
The dispute over Kashmir between India and Pakistan stands for the fusion of geopolitical antipathies and climate-fueled resource shortages. The Kashmir conflict with India stems from the primacy of the right of the peoples of Kashmir to self-determination, coupled with the Pak-IOJ&K (Indian Illegally Occupied Jammu and Kashmir) factor due to the major river originating from the IIOJ&K flowing into the country of Pakistan.
The disputes regarding dam building by India, for example, the Baglihar and Kishanganga Dams, are a direct indication of tension between the two countries as Pakistan greatly depends on these rivers for irrigation and agriculture.
Additionally, the thawing glaciers in that situation, specifically Siachen Glacier, whose runoff supplies the Indus River, complicate water scarcity concerns downstream. The calamitous glacier retreat, apart from compromising water runoff and changes in rainfall pattern, creates a safety hazard from destabilizing the fluvial regime imminent with frequent flash floods alarmingly unfurled in Pakistan since 2010. The interrelation of these ecological dilemmas with the geopolitics of the Kashmir conflict adds up to the probability of greater instability and involvement of the nuclear two powers.
![The Himalayan Siachen Glacier, dividing India and Pakistan, is depicted in this 2005 photograph [Credit: Channi Anand/AP Photo].](https://southasiatimes.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/AP366677014787.webp)
Escalating Tensions: India’s Ravi River Blockade and the Implications for Pakistan
India’s recent halt of Ravi River flow to Pakistan, an ancient river controlled by India as an upper riparian state, has heightened concerns about agriculture and humanitarian issues in Pakistan. This move could further strain relations between the two nations.
As a consequence of the belated efforts for their climate crisis, the situation of South Asia will persevere and be severely exacerbated by an extreme climate which obviously will strain the bilateral relationship between Pakistan and India.
The Indus Water Treaty (IWT) brokered 60 years ago by the World Bank, which settled initial water shares between the two countries, has been experienced for six decades over years without any chronic water conflict. Nevertheless, the termination of the Ravi River flow to Pakistan from the Shahpur Kandi Barrage construction in February 2024 has led to upsetting this intricate water distribution system. It is simply the fact that this country is very dependent on agriculture for the livelihood of about 50% population and 70% of the agricultural land is concentrated in Punjab while cities such as Lahore, Faisalabad, and Multan are facing very severe consequences due to general water scarcity.
Such an approach towards this issue has deep strategic impacts. The Ravi defence serves here as the battlefield and the point of the struggle between Pakistan and India. Mr Sanjay Dixit, Additional Chief Secretary to the Government of Rajasthan, has agreed that this conflict can be complicated. He compares Pakistan with a state waging a three-front war which includes the potential of coercive diplomacy or water resource control from Afghanistan.
The disruption of water flow not only poses the threat of dying crops in the Ravi agricultural landscape but even makes matters worse for the humanitarian crisis, particularly when the regions over-rely on the Ravi for its water supply. On the other side, the very political motivations, domestic in this case, make the matter even more complex.
Since 2014, India’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has used the Ravi River dispute to stir anti-Pakistan sentiment in election campaigns, particularly in Punjab.
This case highlights the nuanced interplay of the geopolitical, environmental, and humanitarian downsides and thus calls for the diligent implementation of integrated water resources management to prevent similar crises in the future. Various obstacles keep emerging to provide for further possibilities entailed in the negotiation process. India’s moves warn Pakistan that taking appropriate measures to foster water security and conflict mitigation is inescapable.
Himalaya-Karakoram-Hindukush Highlands, Climate Change and Geopolitics
![Hindu Kush Himalayan glaciers could lose over a third by 2100 despite global warming below 1.5°C, ICIMOD report [Image: China Daily]](https://southasiatimes.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/HKH_region_source_HIMAP_2019__1_.webp)
The Himalaya-Karakoram-Hindukush (HKH) mountain ranges are one of the most susceptible areas of the world to any sort of climate change, as they are called the third pole of the world. This highland plays a critical source of life-giving water for billions of people down the southern Asia, which emphasizes the importance placed on the delicacy of the ecosystem. Nevertheless, the territorial disputes among neighbouring states that include, namely, India, Pakistan, China, and Afghanistan, demand that the issue of climate change and shared resources be addressed as the common responsibility.
The contested nature of mountain lands and the harshness of life in the mountains make it even more difficult for mountain communities to respond to the impact of climate change. The rise of glacial melt worsened the situation of floods and precipitated harsh water shortage which dramatically reduced the livelihoods and security of many, while unsolved territorial disputes aggravated geopolitical rivalry. The ongoing possibility of a clash over shared water basins cannot be overstated, so the emphasis should be put on regional cooperation and outline the conflict resolution approaches.
Also Read: Pakistan: A Case of Climate Change Disproportionately
International Cooperation: A Path Forward
In convening with increasing degrees of tension and eco-burden, international cooperation must deliver the mechanisms to uproot the factors that disturb the peace and devise mitigatory measures that alleviate the consequences of climate change.
The next Paris Conference on climate change provides a platform for key states of the South Asia community to come together to resolve the pressing issues and to fight the problem collaboratively. Through the inclusion of climate action and conflict resolution in the agendas, the regional actors can cooperate and be accountable to their communities to be sustainable and resilient to both economic and climate change activities.
To add to this, the Indus Water Treaty with Pakistan (1960) serves as a perfect example of how a multi-lateral approach can help in solving water issues and ensure cooperation between states. Nevertheless, the scenarios with the changing climate conditions and continuing growth in consummation require a reexamination of the signed agreements and the tools to address these issues effectively. Increased inclusiveness, political willingness, and visionary leadership at the national level are the key factors in developing strategic policies in the face of the unique challenges posed to the climate-stricken international community.
Conclusion
To sum up, climate change, resource scarcity, and geopolitical tensions pose a dire threat to stability and prosperity in regions like South Asia. The India-Pakistan conflict exemplifies this complexity, with the recent Ravi River flow suspension further escalating tensions. As climate challenges intensify in the Himalaya-Karakoram-Hindukush mountains, regional solutions, and conflict resolution mechanisms are crucial.
South Asia’s water crisis demands active international cooperation, building upon successful frameworks like the Indus Water Treaty. The upcoming Paris Climate Conference presents a critical opportunity for joint action towards sustainable solutions. However, navigating this complex system requires robust institutional involvement, political foresight, and visionary leadership to tackle the converging challenges of climate change and geopolitics.
The views expressed in this article are the author’s own. They do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of the South Asia Times.
Waleed Sami is a postgraduate student specializing in Strategic Studies at the Centre for International Peace and Stability (CIPS), which is housed within the esteemed National University of Science and Technology (NUST) in Islamabad. Prior to pursuing his postgraduate studies, Waleed earned his bachelor's degree in International Relations from the National Defence University Islamabad (NDU).
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