Trump 2.0: Factors Fueling the Momentum for a Second Term

Elections are being held this year in nations that collectively represent nearly half of the global population, ranging from Taiwan’s general election in January 2024 to the United States presidential race in November 2024.

The elections occur amidst increasing economic and geopolitical challenges, including the Ukraine war, conflicts in the Middle East, and escalating trade tensions between the United States and China, the world’s two largest economies. In some countries, democracy faces challenges due to polarized political discourse and the spread of disinformation.

This year, many elections are expected to be neither free nor fair, with the results likely to be contested.

Trump vs. Biden: United States Presidential Race 2024

The eyes of the world are now on the 60th quadrennial presidential elections of the United States. The Americans are divided into two political camps; Democrats versus Republicans, where two very different worldviews maneuver to dominate today’s America. The binary political system of the US, dominated by Republicans and Democrats, reflects practical issues and legal-institutional procedures rather than ideological divides. Over time, party identities have evolved, with Republicans becoming more conservative and Democrats more liberal and supportive of social welfare and racial integration. The election outcome may have significant implications on the political landscape of not only the region but the world at large too.

However, the ongoing conflicts in Ukraine-Russia and Palestine continue, which would impact the US economy and particularly influence voters’ perceptions of the current administration’s foreign policy stance. The responses of US political leaders to the ongoing international events may also affect the response of the voters depending on how well the incumbent president handles these challenges compared to his opponent.

Also See: 2024 US Presidential Debate: Biden vs. Trump Clash

On Trump: Controversial Comparisons and Political Rhetoric

Democratic campaigns are comparing former President Donald Trump to Adolf Hitler. This comparison is usually rooted in concerns about Trump’s rhetoric, policies, and actions that critics argue resemble authoritarianism and fascism. On the other side, republican responses to democratic comparisons of Trump to Hitler often focus on condemning the analogy as hyperbolic and inappropriate.

Such comparisons trivialize the horrors of the Holocaust and the Nazi regime. Republicans typically view these comparisons as a strategy to delegitimize Trump and his supporters, framing it as an extreme and unfounded attack meant to inflame political tensions rather than foster constructive dialogue.

Demographics and Electoral Dynamics

According to the Pew Research Center, there are about 246 million registered voters in the US, with 64.8% being white, 14% African American, 14% Hispanic, and 6% Asian.

While the white electorate remains the majority, the influence of ethnic minority voters is crucial, especially in swing states like Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. RealClearPolitics indicates Trump is leading in these states except for Pennsylvania, indicating his potential return to the White House. However, ethnic minorities, traditionally Democratic supporters, are showing a shift in voting patterns. Some Analysts attribute this change partly to Biden’s foreign policies, particularly his stance on the Israel-Palestinian conflict, which has upset various ethnic groups, including African Americans and younger white voters.

Foreign Policy and Its Electoral Implications

Biden’s foreign policies, especially regarding the wars in Gaza and Ukraine, have affected voter sentiments. The Republican-controlled House has blocked funds for Ukraine, aligning with Trump’s claim that the war in Ukraine is primarily a European issue, blaming European countries for exploiting US resources for their security without fair contribution.

The recent assassination attempt on Trump during a rally in Butler, Pennsylvania resulted in one fatality and multiple injuries. Despite the clear identification of the shooter, conspiracy theories quickly emerged across various online platforms, indicating the assassination attempt was staged. From both political spectrums, conspiracy theorists have speculated on the authenticity of the incident. Some on the left have proposed that it was planned drama while the right-leaning theories suggest involvement behind this assassination attempt by Biden’s administration. Such beliefs can erode trust in institutions and electoral integrity, a concern amplified in the lead-up to the 2024 election. Political figures, including Senator J.D. Vance and Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene, have amplified these theories, further polarizing public discourse and potentially undermining confidence in democratic norms.

Challenges Facing Biden’s Reelection Campaign

The latest AP-NORC poll reveals significant challenges facing President Joe Biden’s reelection campaign. Nearly two-thirds of Democrats believe he should withdraw from the presidential race, citing concerns over his mental capability and effectiveness. This sentiment underscores a broader dissatisfaction among younger Democrats, with three-quarters of those under 45 urging Biden to step aside.

Despite efforts to rally support following recent debates and campaign events, including the assassination attempt on Donald Trump, Biden’s approval among Democrats has declined.

In 2024, elections across the globe unfold amidst economic turmoil, geopolitical tensions, and the pervasive spread of disinformation. Nowhere are these dynamics more evident than in the US presidential race, where polarized politics, changing demographics, and contentious foreign policies dominate the discourse. As Americans prepare to vote, the world closely observes, recognizing that the outcomes will extend far beyond US borders. The decisions made in this election will not only define America’s path forward but also significantly influence global economic strategies, international relations, and efforts to achieve stability in an increasingly intricate global landscape.

The views expressed in this article are the author’s own. They do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of the South Asia Times.

Sadia Basharat

Sadia Basharat is a Research Analyst at Russia Today, Pakistan, and is currently pursuing an MPHIL degree from National Defence University, Islamabad

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