The Chabahar Conundrum: How US Sanctions Put India's Geopolitical Gamble in Peril

On February 6, 2025, a major shift in US foreign policy reverberated through South Asia when President Trump signed an executive order instructing the Secretary of State to “modify or rescind sanctions waivers, particularly those that provide Iran any degree of economic or financial relief, including those related to Iran’s Chabahar port project.” This sweeping move signals the United States’ (US) intent to put a serious dent in the ambitions surrounding the strategic Chabahar Port, which has long been touted as a vital trade route bypassing Pakistan.

US Statement on National Security: A Strong Stance Against Iran

In a statement that echoes US hostility toward Iran, President Trump made it clear that his administration’s top priority was to ensure “the safety and security of the United States and the American people.” He noted that since its revolution in 1979, Iran has “declared its hostility to the United States and its allies and partners,” and has consistently supported a range of extremist groups, including Hezbollah, Hamas, the Houthis, the Taliban, al-Qa’ida, and other terrorist networks.

The US also accused Iran of using its proxies and cyber means to target US nationals, as well as being a “leading state sponsor of terror.” Furthermore, the Trump administration reiterated its commitment to preventing Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons, with Trump stating, “Iran’s nuclear program…poses an existential danger to the United States and the entire civilized world.” This harsh rhetoric paves the way for more stringent measures aimed at denying Iran any form of economic relief, including its Chabahar ambitions.

The Indian Perspective: A Tangled Geopolitical Web

India’s investment in the Chabahar Port has been a cornerstone of its strategy to assert regional dominance while bypassing Pakistan. For years, India’s efforts in Chabahar were framed as an essential part of the country’s push for connectivity and geopolitical influence in Afghanistan and Central Asia. However, with the US’s change of policy, India’s multi-billion-dollar investment now hangs in the balance.

As Salman Javed, Director of South Asia Times (SAT), pointed out, “Afghanistan flaunted Chabahar as an alternative to Pakistan, but as uncertainty looms, the question arises: where will Afghanistan turn? India’s investment may not shield it from the shifting geopolitics of the region.”

Haleema Khald, Editor of South Asia Times (SAT), aptly put it: “Chabahar was never just a trade route; it was a geopolitical tool for India. Now, as sanctions loom, its future lies in the hands of a shifting international narrative.”

The port, built to bypass Pakistan, was initially seen as a game-changer for both India and Afghanistan. India had hoped to create a robust, independent trade route that would ensure access to Central Asia without relying on Pakistan’s often fraught trade corridors. However, as the geopolitical winds shift, Pakistan remains the region’s most reliable trade corridor. The US move puts a serious roadblock in India’s ambitions for regional hegemony, and raises the question of how long Afghanistan can continue to rely on the Chabahar route as its preferred channel to the world.

Also See: India’s Chabahar Plans Stumble After US Waiver Reversal

The Roadblock: Economic Gambles vs Geopolitical Stability

Chabahar’s potential to reshape regional trade routes has long been debated. Proponents argued that it would open up new doors for Afghanistan and provide India with a more direct route to Central Asia. But Chabahar was always more than just trade; it was a powerful statement of India’s geopolitical aspirations in the region. With the US policy shift, India’s ambition faces a reality check that was perhaps inevitable given the broader context of regional politics.

In the face of US sanctions, Pakistan’s connectivity projects, including the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), appear to be moving forward without the risk of sanctions. Stable, long-term connectivity, grounded in strategic partnerships, has always trumped the uncertainty that comes with political gambles like Chabahar. Pakistan, free from the threat of US sanctions, remains the natural regional hub.

“India’s push for regional hegemony under the guise of connectivity now faces an insurmountable roadblock,” said Khalid. “Billions in investments mean little when they are built on shaky geopolitical ground.”

The Final Word: A Shift in the Balance of Power

India took a calculated risk with Chabahar, and Afghanistan took the bait. But as the US pulls the strings on sanctions, both countries face uncertainty in their plans. Meanwhile, Pakistan remains firmly planted as the region’s most reliable corridor for trade and connectivity. The US may have cut the lifeline to Chabahar, but in doing so, it has made clear the broader, unassailable truth—regional stability beats geopolitical gambles.

“Pakistan never needed shortcuts,” Salman Javed concluded. “It remains the most viable link for regional trade. No amount of foreign policy maneuvering can erase that reality.”

As US sanctions continue to tighten their grip on Iran, the fate of Chabahar hangs in the balance, forcing India and Afghanistan to reevaluate their regional strategies. In the end, political games may not win the day; only stable, grounded alliances will truly stand the test of time.

SAT Commentaries’ are social media threads by various authors, reproduced here for website use. Views are their own.

SAT Commentary

SAT Commentaries, a collection of insightful social media threads on current events and social issues, featuring diverse perspectives from various authors.

South Asia Times

The Chabahar Conundrum: How US Sanctions Put India’s Geopolitical Gamble in Peril