Introduction
Expecting regional connectivity among China, Central and South Asia without peace is like building a castle on shifting sands. Central Asia is an energy-rich region, whereas South Asia is energy-thirsty. Both regions are striving to join hands through regional connectivity projects. These projects include the Wakhan Corridor, Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India (TAPI) pipeline, China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), and the Trans-Afghan Railway Line. These connectivity projects are peace and stability dependent.
Ensuring peace in the thick of the dense terrorist landscape of South Asia is not a low-hanging fruit.
It is therefore paramount to delve into the challenges posed by terrorist organizations. These challenges impact the connectivity projects among China, South Asia, and Central Asia.
Terrorism – An Anti-Regional Connectivity Phenomenon
Terrorist organizations such as Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) and the Islamic State of Khorasan (ISKP) act as peace spoilers in these regions. From their inception, these two organizations remained uncompromisingly steadfast in wracking chaos, otherwise of peace, prosperity and collective goodness. For instance, Anfaal Media—ISKP’s propaganda mouthpiece—published an article praising the ISKP while criticizing the Taliban for “protecting the interests of Allah’s enemies in Afghanistan.” The article cited the TAPI natural gas pipeline and China’s ownership of the Mes Aynak copper mine as sinister. On the other hand, TTP – the mother organization of ISKP, targeted the Chinese in Quetta in an attempt to sabotage the Pak-China endeavors on regional connectivity projects such as the CPEC – to which Afghanistan has announced to be part of it.
In his book *What Terrorists Want: Understanding the Enemy, Containing the Threat*, Louise Richardson theorizes that terrorists seek the three R’s: retaliation, reaction, and renown. Retaliation involves responding to actual or imagined atrocities. Reaction aims to incite counterterrorism efforts to use disproportionate force, creating a victimized narrative. Renown involves raising the terrorists’ profile. The ISKP and TTP, known for being the most outspoken anti-China, anti-Pakistan, anti-Afghanistan, and anti-Central Asia Republics (CARs) jihadist organizations, practice all three R’s.
The Three R’s
Let’s apprehend the three R’s with examples.
Firstly, ISKP alleged in an article for the al-Naba newsletter that China is using “investment methods” to “fortify its ties with despotic governments.” The article urged Muslims to “wage war against the idolaters of China everywhere.” This included killing and kidnapping Chinese people and workers, as well as attacking Beijing’s economic interests and investments.
Similarly, the pro-ISKP al-Battar Media questioned whether China could complete the Silk Road project for which they allegedly killed Muslims. According to the statement, ISKP had “declared war on China in direct support of Uighur Muslims.” It was clear that the “war includes all the interests of the Communist state.”
These statements illustrate the ‘Retaliation’ against China for its alleged atrocities on Muslims living in China.
Secondly, TTP’s unwavering anti-China rhetoric’s are richly documented in history.
The organization’s English-language *Azan* Magazine criticized Pakistan in 2013 and 2014. It accused Pakistan of maintaining cordial ties with China, which it labeled as an “atheist” and non-Muslim nation.
Additionally, Abdullah Mansoor of the TTP made a declaration following the attack on Tiananmen Square. He said, “O Chinese unbelievers, know that you have been fooling East Turkestan for the last sixty years, but now they have awakened.”
Furthermore, the ISKP’s Al-Millat Media published a new book titled *Why Killing Civilians?* This book was authored by Abu Abdul Rahman Moahid and addressed threats to civilians working on infrastructural projects.
In this book, they warned the civilians involved in the infrastructural projects in Afghanistan.
Here, it is equally important to understand that terrorist organisations do not operate in isolation but lace together in waging ambushes.
Precarious Consortium of Terrorist Organizations
In the crowded terrorist landscape of South Asia, terrorist organizations are fond of making liaisons with each other for the sake of survival and attacks. The liaison among TTP – ISKP and IMU works as the major strategic challenge in fostering regional connectivity. These three organizations are operating from northern and eastern Afghanistan.
From strategic and operational perspectives, it has been vivid that the ISKP has already planted its feet in northern Afghanistan. The attacks in Kunduz and Takhar are testimonies of ISKP’s operations in the north of Afghanistan. North Afghanistan, generally, is the starting point of connectivity projects such as TAPI, Wakhan Corridor and Tans-Afghan Railway Line. The presence of ISKP means a hurdle for these projects. The TTP, geographically, dwelling in eastern Afghanistan – from where the regional connectivity projects is supposed to enter Pakistan.
Based in Afghanistan, ISKP, in particular, had made the security strategists ponder on the feasibility of the regional projects when it started attacking the CARs.
Trans Afghan Railway Line
Uzbekistan, for instance, aims to materialize the Trans-Afghan Railway line. This line will connect Termez, Uzbekistan, with Mazar-e-Sharif, Afghanistan, and Peshawar, Pakistan. The expected cost of the project is $8 billion, and the total length is 783 kilometers.
Notably, the operational railway between the Galaba railway station in Termez, Uzbekistan, and the Hairatan railway station in Mazar-e-Sharif, Afghanistan, is connected to the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan (CKU) railway project. This means the Trans-Afghan Railway line not only connects Pakistan, Uzbekistan, and Afghanistan but also links China, Uzbekistan, Pakistan, Afghanistan, Kyrgyzstan, and China.
In addition, Tawhid News of ISKP released a 24-minute audio statement in Uzbek titled “The Blessed Attack of Termez.” The statement was translated by Uran Botobekov, a well-adept jihadist.
The statement claimed that the Islamic State’s “great jihad to Central Asia Republics” had begun with the rocket attack against the “apostate Uzbek government.” It further asserted that the ongoing initiative to construct a railway link from Uzbekistan to Mazar-i-Sharif in Afghanistan, via Kabul to Peshawar, Pakistan, is nothing more than an apostates’ conspiracy to sow the seeds of democracy in Khurasan.
Notwithstanding, the epicenter of the Trans-Afghan Railway Line, Uzbekistan, was ambushed with Katyusha rockets on April 18, 2021. The ISKP carried out the attack from Balkh, Afghanistan.
These attacks have raised concerns among security analysts. The presence of ISKP in northern Afghanistan, along with its high-magnitude attacks within Afghanistan and across the border in Tajikistan and Uzbekistan, could pose a significant threat to connectivity projects such as the Trans-Afghan Railway Line.
Halting Development Projects
As mentioned earlier, terrorist organizations do not hesitate to unite on a single platform when halting infrastructural and developmental projects. The IMU–TTP nexus is well documented in history. The two organizations worked together in the 2014 ambush at Karachi’s Jinnah International Airport and formed the militant organization Ansar al-Aseen to free TTP members imprisoned in Pakistan.
Similarly, IMU head Usman Gazi, on September 26, 2014, announced his support to ISKP, thenceforth working shoulder to shoulder with ISKP. Likewise, in January 2020, the UN Report revealed that ISKP and TTP had developed an unofficial liaison. Delving into the historical evolution of ISKP, one could easily find that TTP is the ‘Mother Organisation’ of ISKP, providing the fact that the first Emir of ISKP, Hafiz Saeed Khan, was an ex-TTP commander. Thus, the trio of terrorism – TTP, ISKP and IMU – are technically working together to confront the regional connectivity projects to put South and Central Asian states on developmental tracks.
The convergence between ISKP-TTP and IMU trotted out a message that they are strategic challenges for the operating states in particular and the region in general. Meanwhile, ambushed on regional connectivity initiatives attract the attention of the global audience. Whereas, targeting in particular could help TTP, ISKP and IMU to galvanize the attention of all anti-China regional and global powers.
Terrorists for Hire!
According to the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) report of February 2008, terrorist organizations live a longer life providing adaptability and opportunism in raising funds for survival and activities.
TTP, under Noor Wali Mehsud – an opportunist leader, qualifies to both of these traits (adaptability and opportunism) of a terrorist organization. Chronological study of TTP reveals the rapidly changing narratives of TTP with the passage of time, circumstances and leadership. For instance, Hakeem Ullah Mehsud, was fond of doing Jihad beyond the limits of borders whereas Noor Wali Mehsud has limited the Jihad against the security forces and security agencies of Pakistan. The changing narratives, goals, and targets suggest that in the future, the TTP could work as a ‘hired terrorist’ organization for financial gain. The same could apply to ISKP and IMU. Lastly, active operations of Jihadist groups in the vicinity of China, CARs, and Pakistan are ‘Bleeding Wounds’ in regional connectivity.
The views expressed in this article are the author’s own. They do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of the South Asia Times.
Deedar Karim, Research Fellow in counter-terrorism, BA & MPhil in International Relations, focused on regional security dynamics. He can be reached on X, formerly Twitter, via @Emperisist
Thank you for your sharing. I am worried that I lack creative ideas. It is your article that makes me full of hope. Thank you. But, I have a question, can you help me?