Legacy, Trade, and Turmoil: The Pak-Afghan Reset

History is written in stone, but diplomacy is etched in the sands of time. This adage aptly captures the complex interplay between Pakistan and Afghanistan—two nations bound by shared histories yet divided by contemporary politics. However, the Pak-Afghan reset became the central theme as Pakistan’s Special Representative for Afghanistan, Ambassador Mohammad Sadiq, arrived in Kabul recently, hoping to reset ties amidst a swirl of geopolitical, economic, and security challenges.

Ghaznavi’s Legacy Sparks a Row

The spark? A historical icon. Pakistan’s Defense Minister Khawaja Asif recently referred to Sultan Mahmud Ghaznavi—a celebrated 10th-century ruler known for his conquests across South Asia—as a “plunderer.” Amid the backlash the minister faced on social media from the Pak Afghan community, the Afghan Interim Government, quick to respond, called the comment “ignorant of historical facts.” They pointedly reminded Pakistan that one of its ballistic missiles bears Ghaznavi’s name, a testament to his enduring legacy.

For Pak Afghan region, Sultan Mahmud Ghaznavi is far more than a historical figure; he is a symbol of Islamic unity and resistance.

His campaigns, particularly the attack on Somnath in 1025, resonate as a chapter of cultural and political significance. His legacy as a defender of Islam and protector of the oppressed stands uncontested.

A Visit Long Overdue In The Pak Afghan Reset

Ambassador Sadiq’s December 23, 2024, visit to Kabul, postponed earlier due to the assassination of Afghan Minister Khalil Haqqani by Islamic State – Khorasan Province (ISKP) militants, comes at a time when Pakistan and Afghanistan are grappling with complex, overlapping crises.

This visit marked the first high-level interaction since Sadiq’s reappointment. His return to the role in December followed a brief resignation in March earlier this year. Known for his deft handling of Afghan affairs, Sadiq’s reputation precedes him, particularly among Afghan officials, who regard him as a trusted interlocutor.

Also See: Ambassador Mohammad Sadiq, Meets Afghan Officials in Kabul

Diplomacy in a Minefield: Challenges in the Pak-Afghan Reset

During his visit, Sadiq met with senior officials of the Afghan Interim Government, including Acting Interior Minister Khalifa Sirajuddin Haqqani and Acting Foreign Minister Amir Khan Muttaqi. While expressing condolences over Khalil Haqqani’s assassination, Sadiq underlined Pakistan’s commitment to addressing shared challenges. “We are determined to resolve existing issues between Afghanistan and Pakistan through collaborative efforts,” he stated, emphasizing the need for economic ties and regional stability.

Haqqani reciprocated with a call for greater collaboration. “The current situation demands that we intensify our collective efforts to resolve security and political issues,” he noted. Such platitudes, however, belie the tangible tensions simmering under the surface.

While the official discourse surrounding Ambassador Sadiq’s visit emphasizes “brotherly ties” and a “shared destiny,” the reality is far more complex. Afghanistan’s Acting Foreign Minister Muttaqi highlighted the need for “economic cooperation.” However, the two nations are still a long way from realizing their full potential.

Trade between them has stagnated, hovering around $2 billion annually—a mere fraction of what could be achieved, considering Afghanistan’s heavy reliance on Pakistani ports for its imports. Despite the ongoing security tensions, economic interdependence remains a defining feature of their relationship. Afghanistan continues to depend heavily on Pakistan for trade, transit routes, and essential supplies.

The Pak-Afghan reset will not be complete without unlocking the potential of these economic connections.

The Fragile Economics of the Pak-Afghan Reset

The Pakistan-Afghanistan transit trade, which stood at $7.9 billion in 2022-2023, saw a dramatic drop to $2.8 billion in FY 2023-2024—an alarming 59% decline. This reduction, largely attributed to anti-smuggling efforts, underscores the fragility of the economic ties and the challenges that lie ahead. Despite these setbacks, untapped potential continues to exist, particularly in infrastructure and regional connectivity.

While the Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India (TAPI) gas pipeline often dominates discussions, it is far from the only significant project on the table. Initiatives like the Trans-Afghan Railway, which links Uzbekistan, Afghanistan, and Pakistan, are vital for positioning Afghanistan as a regional connectivity hub. Similarly, the Central Asia-South Asia (CASA-1000) power project plays a crucial role in this vision.

The proposed extension of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) into Afghanistan also holds significant promise. It aims to integrate Kabul more deeply into the economic frameworks of South and Central Asia.

However, these ambitious projects face numerous hurdles. Ongoing insecurity in Afghanistan remains a major obstacle while challenges related to financing further complicate progress.

Broader regional rivalries also make cooperation difficult. Even with the Taliban in power, the situation remains unstable. Consistent governance and political stability continue to elude Afghanistan, making it difficult to turn these infrastructural dreams into reality.

China and Saudi Arabia: Emerging Power Brokers

China and Saudi Arabia are increasingly reshaping the regional landscape. Beijing’s growing investments in Afghanistan, particularly under its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), position China as a pivotal player in infrastructure development and resource extraction. China’s commitment to the region is evident through its investments of over $5 billion in projects such as the copper mine at Mes Aynak and its interest in mineral extraction, all part of broader efforts to integrate Afghanistan into the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).

For both Islamabad and Kabul, aligning with Chinese interests could unlock substantial economic benefits—if mutual suspicions are set aside.

According to the China-Afghanistan Strategic Cooperation Framework (2022), China aims to boost Afghanistan’s economy by investing in transportation, energy, and natural resources.

Saudi Arabia’s recent decision to operationalize its embassy in Afghanistan adds another layer of complexity. As a close ally of Pakistan, Riyadh’s influence in Kabul could serve as a crucial channel for brokering peace—or intensifying competition for regional leverage.

Riyadh’s engagement with the Taliban, particularly in religious and financial spheres, presents both opportunities and challenges. On one hand, it could help bridge divides and promote stability. On the other, it may fuel further geopolitical competition, depending on how these dynamics evolve in the coming years.

The Elephant in the Room

Pakistan’s primary concern remains cross-border terrorism.The Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), operating from Afghan soil, has escalated its attacks this year, resulting in the loss of hundreds of lives, both civilian and military. Meanwhile, Afghanistan accuses Pakistan of meddling in its internal affairs and supporting rival factions. In addition, allegations of Pakistan’s covert support for the Islamic State Khorasan Province (ISKP)—claims fanned by Indian media and radical outlets like Al-Mirsad—have also strained trust. These deep-rooted security challenges cannot be ignored in the Pak-Afghan reset.

The Pak Afghan border remains a flashpoint. A series of armed clashes have been reported in 2024 along the Pak Afghan border, with both sides blaming the other for provocations. These incidents threaten to derail critical bilateral initiatives and exacerbate mutual mistrust.

A Shifting Global Context

Adding to the complexity is the changing geopolitical landscape. The re-election of Donald Trump as U.S. President introduces a new geopolitical dimension.

With the return of Donald Trump to the U.S. presidency, Washington’s policies are expected to pivot sharply towards counterterrorism and China containment.

Afghanistan, with its strategic location, is once again caught in the crosshairs of great power rivalry, and Pakistan risks being drawn into this vortex unless it forges a coherent strategy with Kabul. Shared Pakistan-Afghanistan challenges—like addressing the resurgence of ISIS-K, tackling militant networks, and securing economic corridors—could prompt U.S. engagement. However, Trump’s transactional approach may demand more concessions from regional stakeholders.

The Verdict

Sadiq’s visit underscores the high stakes in resetting Pak-Afghan ties. But rhetoric alone cannot paper over decades of animosity. Nor can historical controversies, like Ghaznavi’s legacy, distract from the urgent need for pragmatic solutions. Beyond historical narratives, the future of the Pak-Afghan reset hinges on pragmatic solutions to shared challenges—be it security, economic integration, or regional diplomacy.

In the shadow of Ghaznavi’s conquests and missiles bearing his name, the question remains: will Pakistan and Afghanistan chart a shared future, or will they remain prisoners of their fraught past? The region waits, watching.

SAT Editorial Desk

Your go-to editorial hub for policy perspectives and informed analysis on pressing regional and global issues.

South Asia Times

Legacy, Trade, and Turmoil: The Pak-Afghan Reset