How CPEC's Maritime Dimension Serves as a Gateway for Connectivity

The confirmation by Pakistan Airports Authority’s (PAA) Acting Director-General, Air Vice Marshal Zeeshan Saeed, that the New Gwadar International Airport (NGIAP) will be operational by the end of December marks a significant milestone in Pakistan’s journey toward economic modernization and regional integration. This development is a testament to the vision underpinning the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) and its promise to transform Gwadar into a vibrant hub of trade and connectivity.

CPEC’s Maritime Dimension as a Trade Game-Changer

The story of Pakistan and China’s maritime partnership dates back to 2013 when Chinese President Xi Jinping launched two ambitious international development initiatives: the Silk Road Economic Belt, announced during his visit to Kazakhstan in September, and the 21st Century Maritime Silk Road, introduced a month later in Indonesia. Together, these were termed the One Belt, One Road (OBOR) initiative, later rebranded as the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). The BRI aims to establish an extensive network of overland and maritime infrastructure, enhancing China’s connectivity with markets across Asia, Europe, and Africa.

The “Belt” consists of six overland economic corridors, while the maritime “Road” links Chinese ports with those in Southeast Asia, South Asia, the Middle East, and Africa—a concept sometimes referred to as the “String of Pearls.”

Among these corridors, the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) is particularly significant. Stretching approximately 2,700 kilometres, it connects Kashgar in western China to Gwadar Port on Pakistan’s southern coast, bridging both the overland and maritime components of the BRI. The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) was officially launched in 2015 with the signing of 51 agreements and Memorandums of Understanding (MoUs) worth USD 46 billion between China and Pakistan. As a flagship project of China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), CPEC aimed to modernise Pakistan’s infrastructure, including road, rail, air, and energy systems, while enhancing connectivity between Pakistan’s Gwadar and Karachi ports and China’s Xinjiang province. Over time, the project expanded to include Special Economic Zones (SEZs) and collaborations in areas such as outer space to facilitate project oversight.

Also See: Pakistan: A Nation with Sea but with Sea Blindness

Gwadar Port: The Heart of CPEC’s Maritime Dimension

At the heart of CPEC is Gwadar Port, strategically located near the Strait of Hormuz, through which 21 million barrels of oil—about 21% of global petroleum liquids consumption—passed daily in 2022. Gwadar’s potential as a transhipment hub linking Pakistan, China, and other regions such as the Middle East and Central Asia aligns with China’s strategic ambitions.

For Pakistan, Gwadar strengthens its maritime capacity while mitigating risks posed by the vulnerability of Karachi, the Navy’s principal base, during past conflicts with India.

Gwadar’s deep waters can accommodate advanced naval assets, offering a robust alternative in the event of hostilities. Gwadar’s development as a hub for maritime trade and transhipment can drastically reduce the cost and time for goods transported between China and the Middle East or Africa.

For China, Gwadar offers a critical alternative to the congested and geopolitically vulnerable Strait of Malacca. China’s rapid economic growth since the 1980s has heightened its energy security concerns, especially its reliance on seaborne energy imports. In 2014, China imported nearly 5.96 million barrels of crude oil per day, a 17.5% increase from the previous year. As the world’s largest net importer of petroleum and other liquid fuels since 2013, China remains vulnerable to disruptions in key maritime chokepoints such as the Strait of Malacca. This vulnerability, often termed the “Malacca Dilemma,” underscores Beijing’s urgency to diversify energy import routes and establish reliable transport alternatives, which CPEC aims to address.

Adding to Gwadar’s strategic significance is the New Gwadar International Airport Project (NGIAP), a $246 million initiative under CPEC. Equipped with state-of-the-art facilities, a large runway for the world’s largest aircraft, and a world-class terminal, NGIAP is designed to elevate Gwadar’s stature as a modern trade hub and enhance its connectivity to global markets, reinforcing its role as a pivotal component of CPEC’s vision.

Beyond Trade: Geopolitical and Strategic Implications of CPEC

CPEC’s significance transcends beyond economic considerations. Gwadar, as Pakistan’s third naval base, strengthens national defence against potential blockades and supports the Pakistan Navy in safeguarding maritime routes. For China, the port’s proximity to the Persian Gulf aligns with its broader ambitions of achieving blue-water naval capabilities and ensuring operational flexibility for its growing naval fleet. The two countries are increasing their partnership in this domain as evidenced by China’s launch of the first of eight Hangor class submarines at Wuchang Shipyard in Wuhan in May 2024. As per the deal,

China will build four submarines in Pakistan, while the remaining four will be constructed in Chinese shipyards. However, due to Germany’s refusal to supply engines for these submarines, China is seeking alternative sources for the engines. Once operational, these submarines are expected to significantly enhance Pakistan’s naval capabilities.

This submarine deal is a key component of Pakistan’s broader naval modernization program and reflects the deepening China-Pakistan security partnership. The growing naval collaboration between the two countries is further evident in joint naval exercises and infrastructure development projects. As China expands its security presence in the Indian Ocean, it has increasingly conducted naval exercises with various nations, including Pakistan. The latest of these, Exercise Sea Guardian, took place in November 2023 in the Northern Arabian Sea. The drills, which focused on anti-submarine operations, fostered mutual trust and improved interoperability between the two navies.

Regional Connectivity and CPEC’s Maritime Dimension

CPEC aims to link China’s western region of Xinjiang to Gwadar port on the shores of the Arabian Sea, effectively connecting China with the Middle East, Africa and Europe and shortening its trade routes. Beyond China, CPEC’s maritime component provides an unprecedented opportunity for Pakistan to integrate into regional and global trade networks. Central Asian states, landlocked but resource-rich, can leverage Gwadar as their primary trade outlet to global markets. Afghanistan, too, could benefit from enhanced access to sea routes via Gwadar, fostering economic stability in a region long mired in conflict.

The Role of Maritime Security in Advancing CPEC’s Maritime Dimension

The Pakistan Navy plays a critical role in regional maritime stability, hosting multinational collaborations like Task Force 151 and the AMAN Exercise. These efforts strengthen interoperability in counter-piracy, air defence, and disaster relief. With rising Indian naval capabilities and evolving geopolitical dynamics in the Indian Ocean, Pakistan’s strategic position near the Strait of Hormuz has become vital for global trade and security. The upcoming AMAN Dialogue 2025 will focus on regional security, the blue economy, and non-traditional threats.

Challenges Facing CPEC’s Maritime Dimension

The growing Pak-China partnership in economic and maritime projects faces significant challenges, including opposition from India and strategic scrutiny by the United States amidst escalating Sino-American tensions.

● Since the initiation of CPEC-related projects, India has shown a marked interest in undermining its prospects, reportedly using its intelligence agencies to this end. According to media reports, RAW (India’s Research and Analysis Wing) has established a dedicated desk to counter and disrupt the implementation of CPEC. Pakistani intelligence agencies claim to have gathered credible evidence supporting these claims. Kulbhushan Yadav is just one instance. Moreover, it is reported that the RAW chief, who reports directly to the Indian Prime Minister, is personally overseeing these activities. For India, CPEC signifies China’s potential to gain strategic dominance in the Arabian Sea, including enhanced monitoring and potential control over the critical chokepoint of the Strait of Hormuz.

● India, wary of strategic encirclement, is expanding its naval capabilities, aiming for a 200-ship fleet by 2027, including nuclear submarines and aircraft carriers. India’s investments, such as Chabahar Port in Iran, counter the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) and Gwadar Port, vital to China’s trade with the Middle East and Africa.

● China’s partnership with Pakistan partially also faces significant opposition viz-a-viz U.S. Pivot to Asia strategy, which seeks to curtail China’s regional influence while designating India as a strategic partner.

● Within Pakistan, CPEC projects face security threats from anti-state groups like the Baloch Liberation Army (BLA), which has targeted Chinese interests, including Gwadar Port and infrastructure projects. High-profile attacks have killed over 21 Chinese nationals since 2017. In March 2024, five Chinese engineers and a Pakistani national were killed in an attack near the China-backed Dasu hydropower project, echoing a similar attack in 2021 that left nine Chinese engineers dead. The BLA has also extended its campaign to urban centers, including an audacious attack on Beijing’s consulate in Karachi, further underscoring the persistent security risks to China-Pakistan cooperation.

● Meanwhile, the U.S. and India have strengthened their strategic alignment through initiatives like QUAD, IPEF, and the Indo-Pacific Oceans Initiative. The U.S.-India Indian Ocean Dialogue, inaugurated in November 2024, reinforces their collaboration to counterbalance China’s influence. This partnership is further bolstered by India’s shifting stance on the U.S. base at Diego Garcia, now viewed as critical for regional stability. While India once opposed Diego Garcia’s militarization, the rise of China has shifted its stance, with New Delhi now viewing the U.S. presence as crucial for regional stability.

● Above all, political instability in Pakistan remains a major obstacle, tarnishing the country’s soft image and its reputation as a secure destination for international investors. The recent ‘ from November 24–27, 2024, coupled with the state’s inadequate response, has further undermined Pakistan’s standing on the global stage.

The above-listed challenges have hurdled Pakistan to get full-scale benefits from CPEC.

The Trump Factor and Its Implications for CPEC

Donald Trump’s Indo-Pacific strategy, emphasizing India as a counterweight to China, directly impacts Pakistan’s strategic calculus and the future of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). Trump’s choices for his cabinet, which includes figures like Senator Marco Rubio and Congressman Mike Waltz, signal a clear shift toward strengthening the US-India alliance.

By prioritizing India within the Quad alliance, the U.S. aims to curb China’s influence, which indirectly challenges CPEC—a flagship project of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and a cornerstone of Pakistan’s economic aspirations.

CPEC positions Pakistan as a regional trade hub, with Gwadar Port serving as a critical node for global maritime connectivity.

However, Trump’s approach could undermine these ambitions by intensifying strategic pressure on Pakistan through enhanced U.S.-India collaboration in the Indian Ocean. For example, U.S. support for India’s naval capabilities directly counters the maritime security environment crucial for CPEC’s success.

Furthermore, reduced U.S. involvement in Afghanistan under Trump’s “America First” stance could destabilize Pakistan’s western flank. If Afghanistan shifts closer to the Quad’s orbit, Pakistan’s ability to maintain security for CPEC projects, especially along trade routes connecting to Gwadar, could face additional challenges. This encirclement perception may also complicate Pakistan’s efforts to attract international investors to CPEC due to heightened regional tensions.

CPEC remains a lifeline for Pakistan to offset economic vulnerabilities exacerbated by strained U.S.-Pakistan ties. As Trump’s policies favour India’s rise, Islamabad may need to double down on its partnership with China, ensuring CPEC’s progress while recalibrating its foreign policy to balance regional dynamics. By doing so, Pakistan can protect its maritime and economic interests and counter the geopolitical challenges posed by a U.S.-India alliance.

Realizing the Full Potential of CPEC: Maritime Renaissance for Pakistan

CPEC, a cornerstone of China’s BRI, offers Pakistan an opportunity to address its economic challenges and emerge as a regional economic hub. With the global economy shifting toward maritime-driven growth, CPEC’s maritime dimension positions Gwadar as a gateway to regional and global trade, benefiting Central Asia and Afghanistan while reinforcing Pakistan’s strategic role.

However, Pakistan’s potential remains underutilized due to limited maritime focus. Despite its 990 km coastline and significant maritime trade through Karachi, Bin Qasim, and Gwadar, ‘sea blindness’ hampers progress. Initiatives like the Blue Economy (2020) and amendments to the Merchant Marine Policy show progress, but substantial investments and visionary leadership are required to fully unlock maritime opportunities.

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South Asia Times

How CPEC’s Maritime Dimension Serves as a Gateway for Connectivity