Asian Development Bank (ADB)
Remittance could fall by 27.8% for Bangladesh in the worst-case scenario following a pandemic. Since a hike in job losses and trimmed payrolls says Asian Development Bank (ADB).
Moreover, the average remittance decline was 19.3 % in the global financial crisis,2009. The decline was of 2.7% for the remittance inflows in total to Asia and pacific.
Covid-19 Impact on International Migration, Remittances
The information was in a report titled “Covid-19 Impact on International Migration, Remittances, and Recipient Households in Developing Asia”. Which is a Manila-based regional lender’s Research group. Remittances are reported to go down by 5.2% for the least affected economy.
Worst-hit developing Asian countries
Five Worst hit developing Asian countries include Nepal, Tajikistan, Bangladesh, Pakistan, and the Kyrgyz Republic. The reported figures are 28.7%, 27.9%, 27.8%, 26.8% and 25.2% respectively.
“With many households depending on international remittances in developing Asia—particularly in the Pacific and Central and West Asian economies—a sudden stop in remittance flow to these regions could push people into poverty,\” the ADB warned.
Remittance Inflow
Additionally, there were $18.20 billion remittances for FY20 as per Bangladesh data. However, the outlook will not remain steady in the upcoming months, according to the expert’s opinion.
“The migrants are sending their savings home as they fear returning, they will have to return as employers are trimming jobs due to the pandemic. They also sent more on the occasion of Eid-ul-Azha,” Ahsan H Mansur, executive director of Policy Research Institute (PRI), told Dhaka Tribune.
Shock for the Economy
Moreover, the Economist attributed the shock to migrants returning home amid pandemic, especially from Middle Eastern countries. Ahsan H Mansur later urged the government to finance such cases to be self-employed or make a place for them in the local industry.
Global remittance decline
Global remittance might go down by $108.6 billion in 2020, which equals to 18.3% of the baseline remittances globally.
For Asia, the figure is around $54.3 billion against a 19.8% decline in baseline remittances in 2018. South Asia is likely to go down by $28.6 billion in terms of remittance receipts.
Deteriorating employment statistics
Furthermore, 167 million people might lose jobs in Asia and the Pacific, says ADB. The wage income will reduce to a range of $359 billion to $550 billion. International Labour Organization (ILO) estimates the second quarter of the year 2020 to reflect the adverse impact on jobs.
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