Feature Report on Pak-Afghan Transit Trade

India Standpoint over Pak-Afghan Transit trade The Indian Officials are not pleased over Pakistan’s approach towards hosting the bilateral trade between India and Afghanistan. At a weekly briefing spokesperson of India ministry of external affairs, Anurag Srivastava called out Pakistan for not complying with the rules set forth under Afghanistan-Pakistan Transit Trade Agreement (APPTA). \”Let us be clear on this, Pakistan is not allowing Afghan trucks to carry Afghan goods and is seeking monopolistic transport practices,” he said. He further added that Pakistan fails to allow access of products from India and other countries to Afghanistan and is enforcing the dynamics of a captive market. Pakistan’s take on the issue Moreover, Pakistan’s foreign office declared to resume exports to India from July 15. FO stated that the facilitation is carried out as promised under APTTA. The initiative restored bilateral trade on Afghanistan’s request. Additionally, Pakistan’s Special Envoy for Afghanistan Ambassador Mohammad Sadiq said that trade should be the talking point of the Pak-afghan relationship. He expressed high hopes in bilateral trade to push the two regions towards prosperity. “We are moving ahead with promoting economic activity on both sides of the border, he said. Afghanistan\’s take on the issue Furthermore, the Afghan ambassador to Pakistan, Atif Mashal has reciprocated in a similar manner to the situation. He remarked that the Political issues must not come in the way of commerce between both countries. He also invited Pakistani adviser to the prime minister on commerce, Abdul Razak Dawood, to visit Kabul in July or August for a follow up on talks regarding bilateral trade and transit issues. Update on opened routes Similarly, Pakistan has made open five key routes with Afghanistan along with Wagah border. Reopened routes include Torkham in northwest Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province, Chaman in southwest Balochistan province, Ghulam Khan in North Waziristan tribal district, Angor Adda in South Waziristan tribal district and Kharlachi in Kurram tribal district. Tri-lateral cooperation under CEPAC In September 2019, China-Afghanistan-Pakistan Foreign Ministers\’ Dialogue held in Islamabad agreed for trilateral cooperation under CEPAC, belt road initiative (BRI). Mushahid Hussain Syed, chairman of the Pakistani Senate\’s standing committee on foreign affairs said that Afghanistan is carrying exports via Gwadar since January 2020. “Gwadar port is the centerpiece of CPEC. It aids in transporting to Afghanistan. Which is a shorter route than the Karachi port,” he added. For Afghanistan, the first shipment carrying containers arrived at Gwadar port on Jan 14,202. Approvals for importing a bulk cargo of wheat, sugar, and fertilizers were given in April. Issues and Challenges Afghan Ambassador Mishaal Khan lauded Pakistan over establishing transit ties. “We must extend support to each other for the revival of commerce and connectivity in Central and South Asia that will surely benefit people in the region,\” he said. In a conference organized by USAID – Pakistan Regional Economic Integration Activity (PREIA) in collaboration with the Sarhad Chamber of Commerce and Industry (SCCI), traders and exporters on both ends have expressed concern over decreasing trade volume. Moreover, they attributed the decline to the complex regulatory procedures, inadequate administrative measures, and strict policies. Moreover, parties on both ends discussed removing the bottlenecks to ease trade. India’s export through Pakistan’s transit routes is not just an issue of commerce. The concerns over national security and Pakistan-china relationship also plays a decisive role. Both Afghanistan and Pakistan look forward to working under BRI. India does not seem to have to negotiate power unless backed by Afghanistan.

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USA and Five Central Asian Countries Vowed to Work-over Economic Integration of South & Central Asia

New Trade Ties Washington has issued a joint statement this week, narrating the will to resolve the tension in Afghanistan. The Effort is to create economic and trade ties with the region as well as between markets of central Asia, South Asia, and Europe together. To realize its plans, Washington has formed a group namely C5+1, which includes the United States, Kazakhstan, the Kyrgyz Republic, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan. A working group is formed inspecting the transit and financial opportunities in Afghanistan and the wider region along with keeping an eye over the border security and violent extremism. Needs to be Realized In late May, The United States, Afghanistan, and Uzbekistan agreed on the need to build a railway-based transportation network between central Asia and Pakistan. Also, the need for the construction of a gas pipeline from across Pakistan to India was highlighted during the meeting. Iran and China have also agreed on a joint venture featuring a security and economic partnership. It is reported that the investment would be worth $400 billion over 25 years. The prospects of which will be the creation of new economic opportunities for Iran in particular and China at large. Where does Pakistan turn? The prevailing sentiment among the diplomatic observers is that the China and United States are desperately seeking and trying to seize economic opportunities in South and Central Asia. There is a “tug of war” observed on the part of both China and the United States, where the two are trying to get a major stake to their benefit in the emerging economic prospects. In this display of power dynamics between the US and China, Pakistan will soon find itself in a decisive moment over taking-side with one of the parties. Whatever the decision may be, it will decide the future of Pakistan from both an economic and political standpoint.

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Sri Lanka Calling off Deal with India Over China?

The deal The Sri Lankan President has recently voiced his agreement over reviewing a joint-venture- port agreement with India reported to having an estimated worth of $500 to $700 million. The move is perceived as a strategic response to distance itself from ‘QUAD’ Nations. Since there is a shift in power dynamic across Asia, and Colombo’s response is likely to comply with china’s growing geopolitical influence against the QUAD” nations. “We heard that there is a lot of pressure from India over this project. But we are not a province of India, we are a sovereign nation and we do not need to dance to their tunes,” said Shyamal Sumanarathna, secretary of the Ports, Commerce Industries, and Progressive Workers Union. Development of East Container Terminal (ECT) was agreed to come into effect with India and china as stakeholders, where 51% stake was to remain with Sri Lanka. The deal was sealed under the memorandum of understanding (MOU) by the previous government. The reaction in Sri Lanka The Trade Union at the Sri Lanka port authority is afraid of losing the ownership rights to India and demand a guarantee that the concerns won’t turn into a reality to which the prime minister assured that there is no settlement of the “final agreement” yet between the two parties. A five-member committee is reported to review the concerns in 45 days and decide that the project works for the benefit of Sri Lanka without it having to compromise on the sovereignty. Speaking of the inclination of Sri Lanka towards China; China has categorically bailed out the country on various fronts especially since the outbreak of COVID-19. China lends out $1.5 billion to construct a port in Hambantota, However, the port was later leased to China for 99 years in exchange for $1.1 billion. What to believe? On one side China is financing the Sri Lanka economy in the name of $500 million foreign “aid package” and on the other hand, the government is requesting a postponement of debt to various countries including India amid the pandemic. Rohan Masakorala, a maritime shipping expert and CEO of the Shippers Academy Colombo called out the trade union for portraying nationalistic sentiments, driven by politically motivated views. Harin Fernando, a Member of the Parliament of Sri Lanka, accused the current administration of turning Sri Lanka into a “banana republic” under Chinese rule. He further added that the administration is hijacked given that China has established a monopoly over the development projects.

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SANEM Calls for the Micro Lenders to Disburse Stimulus Loans among SMEs

To ensure prompt access to loans, Microfinance Institutions should disburse loans to small and medium enterprises (SMEs) under the Bangladeshi government stimulus package. This will help generate a quick medium of finance to combat the negative repercussions of the pandemic. The recommendation is made on the authority of South Asian Network on Economic Modeling (Sanem) at the Sanem Netizen Forum on Covid-19 Pandemic. According to Selim Raihan, Sanem Executive Director, the assistance of the entrepreneur’s community gets compromised due to the delay in opportune extension of loans, since the banking system follows a slow-moving process. To realize the true potential of previously announced Tk 20,000 crore stimulus package by the Bangladeshi government, the executive director proposed to take the microlenders into serious consideration for this is the ruling sector specialized to cater to the SMEs. In appreciation of the stimulus package, Raihan added that this action will help revive the sector parallel to the economy if transparency is maintained and the process is administered properly. Commenting on the social safety net program, he added that the COVID-19 outbreak has rendered people poor and unemployed. However, the government is yet to takes measures in the direction of extending financial cooperation to the eligible people. Furthermore, tapping into the foreign reserves to cushion the fallout was said to be a good initiative. Though the government must not go overboard with the practice as it will discourage Foreign direct investment (FDI), he added. Research director of SANEM and professor of economics at the University of Dhaka, Sayema Haque Bidhisha said that the remittance hike is observed since the outbreak. This poses a challenge to the economy since the expatriates are likely to make a return to home to little or no economic activity whatsoever. So, this sector has to be brought under social safety net as well, she added. Bidhisha also referred to the government to ease the interest rate from 4% to a lower rate, since SMEs won’t be in a position to comply with the criteria. Given the uncertain dynamics of the pandemic, the situation calls for a vigilant and quick response amongst various sectors. With special emphasis on balancing the various segments of the society under institutionalized reforms.    

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