The evolving romance between Islamabad and Moscow is indicative of the realignment of the players in the regional game. In the office since 2004, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, a thorough and influential diplomat globally discussed the prospects of the Afghan Peace Process during his Pakistan’s visit. The discussion also included Defense Cooperation, which is perhaps the beginning of the new era of Islamabad-Moscow ties.
Moscow’s Post-Cold War Foreign Policy Perspectives
Recently, in the post-Cold War context, Moscow has realized that a corroborated policy is impossible without reliance on history. Lavrov’s article, “Historical Perspective of Russian Foreign Policy” is insightful in this regard to get along with Moscow’s diplomatic pulse. He notes, the post-war global order based on the rivalry between two systems naturally was far from perfect. Although it did make the preservation of world peace possible. Nonetheless, he views post-Cold War as an eastward expansion of the Northern Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). He called this act of “approaching the Russian borders of the geopolitical space… the root of the systemic problems that plagued Russia’s relations with the United States and the European Union today.”
Sergey Lavrov: Moscow’s Kissinger
Sergey Lavrov considers Alexander Gorchakov, a prestigious well-reputed 19th-century chancellor, and a foreign minister, his role model, this tells a lot regarding the Moscow model of foreign diplomacy. It is similar to Gorchakov’s restoration of post-war Russian influence in Europe through diplomacy. Likewise, Lavrov is elevating post-Cold War Russia diplomatically seeking influence based on geopolitics and geoeconomics in the Asian Century.
Regional Realignment – Afghanistan, a Common Denominator
Both China and Russia realize the significance of geopolitical and geoeconomic regional cooperation based on plurality. Comparatively, the United States has securitized the regions militarily in the past decades. Afghanistan – a common denominator for both the regional and non-regional powers calls for regional realignment at the crossroads of emerging paradigm with the Peace Process in progress. This is to determine the vector of a regional cooperative framework for development in the global futurist context.
Here it is vital to consider the report Peter Frankopan cites in The New Silk Roads, stating, ‘Asia would regain the dominant economic position it held some 300 years ago, before the Industrial Revolution.\’ This report provides essential background to understand the significance of the renewal in the themes of realignment. The realignment linking South Asia and Central Asia to Europe consolidating regional cooperation. Pakistan’s strategic role as a regional key player in the context of the Eurasian chessboard is undisputed. Kissinger of Russia, Sergey Lavrov is well aware of the fact that international relations in the Asian century are redefining the global power structures.
Transforming Paradigm of Regional Connectivity in the Eurasian Chessboard
Furthermore, in a backdrop of democratic transition in Washington DC, a coldness in the bilateral relations between Islamabad and Biden Administration is evident. Also, Moscow’s relations with Washington and her allies have ‘hit the bottom’. Resultantly, with the transforming global trends and evolving regional romances, Moscow’s inclination towards Pakistan, a key regional player, is obvious.
Historically, the diplomatic relationship between Islamabad and Moscow has been rocky. This is due to the interest-based alliances and rivalries in the region. However, in the context of 9/11 and the global war on terror followed by the upheavals in the Pak-US strategic relationship, ties between Islamabad and Moscow flourished gradually.
Islamabad-Moscow Evolving Romance – Moscow’s National Interest
The Musharraf-Putin summit of 2003 and General Kiyani’s visit to Russia in 2012 set forth the chain of high-level mutual interactions between the two states. Also, the convergence of regional interest between Islamabad, Beijing, and Moscow over China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), Maritime Silk Roads (MSR), and Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), not only maintain Islamabad’s power equilibrium in diplomatic international relations with the global powers; China, the US, and Russia; it provides essential leverage to Islamabad to sustain a ‘do-more\’ pressure.
Furthermore, the rise of ISKP in Afghanistan is also a cause of concern for Moscow. In 2017, the Russian president’s special envoy to Afghanistan, Zamir Kabulov expressed Moscow’s concerns. Kabulov stated that \”Russia was among the first to be sounding the alarms in connection with the emergence of Daesh in Afghanistan… Daesh has significantly increased its power in the country recently. According to our estimates, the number of militants exceeds 10,000 and continues to grow. This is particularly due to new fighters arriving from Syria and Iraq”. It is universally acknowledged that the global power structure is evolving. Hence, Moscow views its relationship with Islamabad as valuable for beneficial outcomes in Afghanistan. Ultimately, it will prevent ISKP penetration into Central Asia.
Though Moscow’s economic capabilities at present are limited, its diplomatic and political acumen to recognize the changing world is unparalleled. Winston Churchill has rightly said in 1939, “I cannot forecast to you the action of Russia. It is a riddle, wrapped in a mystery, inside an enigma; but perhaps there is a key. That key is Russian national interest.”
US-Indo Convergence of Interest in Asia-Pacific
Contrarily, the convergence of interest between Washington and New Delhi has also provided Moscow a reason to reconsider regional alignment in the Eurasian and Asian contexts. Besides, Moscow views New Delhi’s involvement in QUAD with concern because of its China containment plan in the Asia-Pacific region. Here it is significant to consider that Lavrov visited Islamabad after visiting New Delhi with which Moscow relishes historical relations. However, in Pakistan Foreign Minister Lavrov has discussed the areas of mutual interest with Prime Minister Imran Khan. The discussion also included Foreign Minister Qureshi and Chief of Army Staff General Bajwa. However, in India, there has been a meeting with the Indian Foreign Minister only.
Moreover, Saleh, the First Vice President of Afghanistan is more inclined towards the Indian lobbyists; increasing Indian influence under the US supremacy in Afghanistan does not stay unnoticed. Against this backdrop, the cancellation of Asad Qaiser’s visit to Afghanistan over so-called security concerns right after Lavrov’s visit is self-explanatory. Since the Speaker National Assembly of Pakistan, Asad Qaiser, and his delegation has been invited by the Speaker of Afghan Wolesi Jirga Mir Rehman Rehmani, the return of Asad Qaiser from Kabul airspace has caused an uproar over there. The Wolasi Jirga (Afghan Parliament) has summoned a session tomorrow in its aftermath.
Hence, Afghanistan being the common denominator, Islamabad-Moscow\’s evolving romance is indeed transforming the paradigm of regional connectivity by conjoining geopolitics and geoeconomics. Though the spin doctors are more focused on an umbrella factor, there is much more to consider in the aftermath of the recent cooperative initiative between the two countries.
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