India's Maldives Crisis and Beyond: What is at Stake

On December 30, the Washington Post reported that the Maldivian opposition sought $6 million from India to bribe 40 parliament members to vote for President Mohamed Muizzu’s impeachment. Is this merely political maneuvering, or does it reflect deeper tensions in India-Maldives relations?

According to the report, the plan, outlined in an internal document titled Democratic Renewal Initiative, also included paying 10 senior army and police officers and three criminal gangs to ensure Muizzu’s removal from office. The report claimed Indian intelligence operatives began engaging opposition leaders by January 2024 to explore removing Muizzu, whose close ties with China have strained India-Maldives relations since he assumed office in November 2023. Former President Mohamed Nasheed, now leader of the largest opposition party, dismissed the allegations on December 31, stating, “India would never back such a move, as they always support Maldives’ democracy.” But are these denials enough to dissipate the growing cloud of suspicion?

The Maldives’ Strategic Role in India’s Regional Security

Why does a small island nation like the Maldives matter so much to India? India views stability in the Maldives as vital to its regional security, particularly amid concerns that Chinese investments might lead to military installations, potentially granting Beijing control over the Indian Ocean.

India-Maldives tensions escalated during former President Abdulla Yameen’s pro-China administration (2013–2018), which saw significant Chinese investments, including a $200 million bridge in Malé. In response, India backed the Maldivian Democratic Party (MDP). It supported Mohamed Nasheed and his ally Ibrahim Solih, whose 2018 presidency embraced an “India First” policy, securing Indian aid and allowing a military presence. However, Solih’s pro-India stance fueled opposition, culminating in the “India Out” movement led by Yameen and later President Mohamed Muizzu.

Also See: The Maldives’ India Out Conundrum

2023 Maldives’s Elections and Aftermath

Muizzu won the 2023 elections, leveraging anti-India sentiment and pledging to remove foreign military forces. Post-election, he strengthened his position by flipping opposition lawmakers, while publicly opposing Indian influence, declaring, “We may be small, but that doesn’t give you the license to bully us.“

Since then India has been on and off attempting to dismiss and puncture the Maldives. These attempts have included political maneuvering, diplomatic pressure, and support for opposition factions within the Maldives. However, these actions have had unintended consequences, significantly deteriorating India’s reputation in the region.

Beyond the Maldives: India’s Growing Global Footprint

Is the Maldives an isolated case, or part of a broader pattern in India’s foreign policy under Prime Minister Narendra Modi? India’s Research and Analysis Wing (RAW) has been accused of engaging in extraterritorial operations

India’s Research and Analysis Wing (RAW) has been accused of engaging in extraterritorial operations, with some drawing comparisons to Mossad’s global reach. Allegations include the assassination of Canadian citizen and pro-Khalistani activist Hardeep Singh Nijjar and a botched attempt on U.S.-based Sikh leader Gurpatwant Singh Pannun.

Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s public accusation of Indian involvement in Nijjar’s murder led to a diplomatic crisis. Meanwhile, The Guardian reported India’s orchestration of up to 20 extrajudicial killings in Pakistan since 2020. While India denies involvement, Prime Minister Narendra Modi has hinted at a transnational counterterrorism policy, stating, “We pursue terrorists in their home and kill them there.”

RAW: A Pillar of India’s Geopolitical Ambitions

Established in 1968 after India’s 1962 war with China, RAW has maintained close ties with Mossad and the CIA, according to the U.S. Council on Foreign Relations.

Like other arms of India’s national security apparatus, RAW has been emboldened by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who has bolstered India’s defence capabilities since his 2014 election and built a strongman image.

RAW’s increasing assertiveness under Modi’s leadership underscores India’s determination to counter threats abroad while expanding its geopolitical footprint.

The Bigger Picture: India’s Great Power Aspirations

In an increasingly polarized world defined by tensions between global superpowers, India’s aspirations to assume Great Power status are more evident than ever. But does this ambition come at a cost? With the U.S. pivoting to Asia, seeking a strategic partnership with India to counter China’s rise, combat a resurgent Russia, and address the ongoing challenge of terrorism, India’s role on the global stage is poised for a monumental shift. In this regard, RAW has, over the years, demonstrated a proactive and often controversial approach to ensuring the country’s influence and security.

RAW’s “Double Game” in Sri Lanka

In Sri Lanka, for example, RAW played a “double game,” simultaneously supporting the Sri Lankan Army against the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) while safeguarding Indian interests. By providing satellite imagery and intelligence about LTTE camps, RAW aided the military’s operations. At the same time, it orchestrated Operation Satori, rescuing and evacuating informers under threat from both the LTTE and the Sri Lankan military, using an intricate network of local operatives to facilitate their escape.

RAW’s Involvement in Erstwhile East Pakistan and Continued Influence in Present-Day Bangladesh

In the early 1970s, during the East Pakistan Crisis that led to the Dismemberment of East pakistan, RAW played a pivotal role in supporting the Mukti Bahini, the guerrilla organization fighting for Bangladesh’s independence from Pakistan. RAW provided critical intelligence, training, and heavy ammunition to the Mukti Bahini, significantly contributing to the success of the liberation movement.

Following the creation of Bangladesh, RAW continued its involvement in the region. In 1990, RAW assisted in orchestrating a democratic uprising against then-President Hussain Muhammad Ershad, leading to his resignation. This intervention was driven by concerns over Ershad’s pro-Pakistan stance and anti-Hindu policies, which were perceived as threats to Indian interests. RAW’s influence in Bangladesh politics persisted even after recent shifts, including Sheikh Hasina’s ouster. However, these political changes have reduced India’s influence in the region, signaling a potential decline in its role in Bangladesh’s domestic and foreign policies.

RAW’s Global Covert Operations: Pakistan, Fiji, and Afghanistan

India’s intelligence agency, RAW, has been implicated in numerous covert operations, particularly in Pakistan. In 2016, India’s involvement in espionage was exposed through the arrest of Kulbhushan Jadhav, accused of being a RAW operative engaged in sabotage and espionage within Pakistan. Additionally, in 2020, Pakistan’s National Security Advisor Moeed Yusuf accused India of orchestrating the 2014 Army Public School attack in Peshawar, which led to the tragic deaths of 144 children.

The alleged link between India and the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) in these attacks further strained relations. RAW’s influence is also suspected in major incidents like the 2019 Pulwama bombing, and it is said to have provided support to anti-Pakistan groups such as the Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA). Moreover, the target killings of Sikhs and Kashmiris in Pakistan, along with RAW’s covert activities abroad and disinformation operations against Pakistan, are further tales of concern that shed light on its broader clandestine operations.

RAW’s activities extend far beyond South Asia, with covert operations that have influenced global political landscapes. In Fiji during the 1980s, when anti-Indian sentiment fueled a political crisis, India allegedly played a decisive role in ousting nationalist leader Colonel Sitiveni Rabuka. This operation involved manipulating local political dynamics and securing support to replace Rabuka with a more India-friendly regime. Moving to Afghanistan, even before the 9/11 attacks, RAW’s covert operations facilitated the escape of an Afghan politician from Taliban control, which was more than an act of goodwill—it was a direct challenge to Pakistan’s influence in the region. Furthermore, during the American-backed governments in Afghanistan, particularly under Ghani, it wasn’t just the U.S. pulling the strings in Kabul—RAW had a hand in shaping decisions behind the scenes to make sure Pakistan’s influence in Afghanistan remained in check.

India’s Great Power Aspirations

Notably, India’s pursuit of Great Power status is deeply entangled with its complex relationship with Pakistan, which remains a significant challenge to India’s regional and global aspirations. As Munir Akram, the former Pakistan Ambassador to the UN, has pointed out, Pakistan stands as a primary obstacle to India’s quest for regional dominance. As long as Pakistan resists India’s pre-eminence in South Asia, other regional states are likely to do the same, making it difficult for India to fully realize its global ambitions while strategically tied down by the tensions in this bilateral relationship.

This is not an isolated case. India’s strategy to secure its position extends beyond mere diplomatic and military posturing. Under the leadership of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, India has sought to assert its dominance by pursuing military superiority over Pakistan, both in conventional forces and nuclear capabilities. In addition, India has worked to diplomatically isolate Pakistan by portraying it as a key player in global terrorism. Beyond these direct measures, India has engaged in a broader strategy, involving influence in regions of Pakistan’s western borders—such as Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan—and by leveraging instability in Afghanistan to undermine Pakistan’s position in the region.

Such approaches are not without external backing. Some Western powers, notably the United States, have supported India’s strategic goals, particularly in areas such as defense and regional security. The U.S., for instance, has imposed sanctions and criticized Pakistan’s ballistic missile programs while often overlooking similar or even more significant defense developments in India. This selective scrutiny reflects broader geopolitical alignments that tend to favor India’s interests. In addition, Western powers, including the U.K. and the EU, have intensified diplomatic pressure on Pakistan, particularly in response to the internal political developments such as the sentencing of civilians by military courts and the detention of opposition leader Imran Khan. This pressure, however, is often seen as more focused on political maneuvering rather than genuine concerns about human rights, contributing to Pakistan’s growing sense of international isolation and discrediting its global standing.

What is clear is that India’s complex relationship with Pakistan is not limited to specific instances but is part of a broader strategy to secure regional dominance and, eventually, global influence. The dynamics surrounding Maldives, for example, are just one of many areas where these geopolitical tensions play out.

The Next Chapter

India’s growing assertiveness, particularly under Modi’s leadership, seems to echo an age-old strategy reminiscent of Chanakya’s philosophy of regional dominance. The Maldives is just one chapter in a broader story where India’s ambitions clash with regional peace. As the Kashmir issue simmers, threatening to escalate into a nuclear flashpoint, and India’s covert operations ripple across South Asia, the world watches closely. With the Trump administration ready to assume office and a fresh approach to the Indo-Pacific on the horizon, the big question is: Will India recalibrate its expansionist tactics under this new geopolitical era, or will its pursuit of dominance continue, potentially making the region more volatile? The coming months are likely to be defining for the region’s peace and stability.

SAT Editorial Desk

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South Asia Times

India’s Maldives Crisis and Beyond: What is at Stake

India’s Maldives Crisis and Beyond: What is at Stake