Russia–Ukraine War, Four Years Later

Four years after the bloody invasion of Ukraine by Russia, a conflict that has unfolded into a prolonged tragedy of destruction and human suffering, the international community once again stands at a crossroads. What began on February 24, 2022 as a multi-axis military operation aimed at rapidly overwhelming Kyiv has since evolved into a grinding war of attrition. The human toll, the destruction of infrastructure, and the long-term geopolitical consequences remain immense and still unfolding.

The initial Russian push, widely perceived as designed for swift political capitulation, faltered in the face of determined Ukrainian resistance. Over time, this resistance consolidated Western support for Kyiv, leading to extensive sanctions on Moscow and unprecedented financial and military assistance for Ukraine. Commemorative events marking the fourth year of the war included high-level visits to Kyiv by European leaders, participation by European Council President António Costa and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen in official memorial ceremonies, and an extraordinary plenary session of the European Parliament addressed by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.

The G7 Leaders’ Statement reaffirmed continued support for Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity, while also endorsing diplomatic efforts aimed at an eventual negotiated settlement.

Western Support and Strategic Commitments

Canada has announced fresh military assistance amounting to 300 million Canadian dollars, part of a broader 1.5-billion-dollar package declared by Prime Minister Mark Carney. The tranche addresses urgent defense requirements and is accompanied by sanctions targeting nearly 100 vessels associated with Russia’s so-called shadow fleet, accused of circumventing sanctions through opaque oil trade mechanisms.

Since February 2022, Canadian assistance to Ukraine has surpassed 25.5 billion dollars, including 8.5 billion in direct military aid. Operation UNIFIER, which has trained over 47,000 Ukrainian personnel, has been extended through 2029. Canada’s support reflects longstanding historical ties, reinforced by its Ukrainian diaspora and earlier responses to the 2014 annexation of Crimea and conflict in Donbas.

However, the protracted nature of the conflict has introduced new uncertainties. Donor fatigue, domestic fiscal pressures in Western states, and shifting strategic priorities—particularly in Washington—have complicated the sustainability of large-scale external assistance.

The Reconstruction Burden

A joint Rapid Damage and Needs Assessment (RDNA5), published on February 23, 2026 by the Government of Ukraine, the World Bank, the European Commission and the United Nations, estimates reconstruction requirements at approximately 588 billion dollars over the coming decade, reflecting a 12 percent increase from the previous year.

Direct damage has now reached around 195 billion dollars, with housing, transport and energy sectors bearing the brunt. Nearly 21 percent of Ukraine’s energy infrastructure has reportedly been damaged or destroyed amid continued missile and drone strikes. The scale of reconstruction exceeds several multiples of Ukraine’s projected annual GDP, underscoring the depth of economic devastation.

During her visit to Kyiv alongside António Costa, Ursula von der Leyen indicated plans to mobilize approximately 90 billion dollars in financial mechanisms to support Ukraine, alongside a winter energy package worth around 920 million euros for 2026–2027 to stabilize the power grid.

A War of Attrition

The war has settled into a grinding stalemate. Russia currently controls roughly 19–20 percent of Ukrainian territory. Ukrainian counteroffensives have yielded mixed results. Drone and missile strikes continue to target energy infrastructure and rear logistics on both sides.

Civilian casualties verified by the United Nations now exceed 15,000, including hundreds of children. Millions remain displaced internally or abroad. The humanitarian toll continues to mount.

Peace efforts have surfaced intermittently. From the Black Sea Grain Initiative in 2022 to subsequent Istanbul discussions and recent trilateral contacts in Geneva, diplomatic overtures have yet to produce a durable breakthrough. The gap between battlefield realities and negotiating positions remains wide.

Implications Beyond Europe

For South Asia, the war is not a distant European confrontation. It has unfolded alongside the region’s own strategic recalibrations. Energy volatility, fertilizer shortages, wheat supply disruptions and inflationary spillovers have directly affected economies from Islamabad to New Delhi, from Dhaka to Colombo.

Most South Asian states have adopted a posture of calibrated neutrality. Rather than aligning rigidly with either Western sanctions regimes or Moscow’s strategic framing, regional capitals have emphasized dialogue, de-escalation and respect for sovereignty. Votes in multilateral forums have reflected nuance rather than bloc loyalty.

India has maintained strategic engagement with Russia while deepening ties with the United States and Europe. Pakistan has advocated diplomatic resolution while preserving working channels with Moscow. Bangladesh and Sri Lanka have focused primarily on economic stabilization amid global turbulence. Afghanistan, already in prolonged crisis, has experienced secondary economic shocks from disrupted trade flows.

Beyond the Battlefield

Four years into this war, neither decisive victory nor negotiated peace appears imminent. What remains certain, however, is that prolonged conflict reshapes far more than borders. It reorders alliances, strains global markets, tests diplomatic credibility and recalibrates power equations across continents.

For South Asia and other regions navigating a complex multipolar order, Ukraine is not merely a battlefield in Europe. It is a cautionary study in how sovereignty disputes, once militarized, can spiral into entrenched stalemates with global consequences. Strategic autonomy, balanced diplomacy and sustained dialogue are not luxuries in such an environment, they are necessities.

History will ultimately judge not only how the war was fought, but how and when it was brought to an end.