The Balochistan Unrest: Who Pulls the Strings Behind the Chaos?

The recent Balochistan unrest triggered by the terrorist attack on Pakistani forces in Mangochar, Kalat district, between January 31 and February 1, 2025, has reignited discussions on the fractures within the terrorist groups operating in Balochistan. But this time, the usual suspects weren’t responsible.

While reflecting on the New Phase of Baloch Militancy, Pakistan Institute for Peace and Security Studies (PICSS) in the recent publication highlight that instead of Bashir Zeb Baloch’s faction of the Baloch Liberation Army (BLA), the operation was claimed by the lesser-active group loyal to Hyrbyair Marri, a London-based Baloch separatist leader. This surprising shift raises an important question: Are the proxies operating in Balochistan more divided than ever?

BLA’s Internal Battle: Bashir Zeb vs. Hyrbyair Marri – Who Holds More Power?

For years, the BLA dominated Balochistan’s militant landscape, but internal power struggles have led to a fractured movement. The Mangochar attack was carried out by Hyrbyair Marri’s faction, represented by spokesman Azad Baloch, distinguishing it from Bashir Zeb’s group, whose spokesman is Jiand Baloch.

Historically, the BLA-Azad faction was the leading militant group supporting the Marri tribe. Marri’s faction, once dominant among the Marri tribe, suffered a massive setback when key commander Aslam Achu defected in 2016-17, taking a large part of the leadership with him. His decision to stay in exile rather than lead from the ground further weakened his influence.

The defection was a turning point. Achu’s loyalty shift proved costly, but his commitment remained evident—his son, Rehan Baloch, carried out a suicide attack in 2018, and Achu himself met the same fate in a 2019 Kandahar bombing. In his absence, Bashir Zeb Baloch rose to power, taking control of the dominant BLA faction and intensifying terrorist activity through the notorious Majeed Brigade.

The Mangochar Attack: Is Hyrbyair Marri’s Faction Making a Comeback?

The attack on Mangochar suggests that the BLA-Azad faction is attempting to reclaim relevance. Claiming to have held the town for hours, set fire to a bank, and took lives of the 18 Frontier Corps (FC) soldiers, the group’s sudden resurgence raises a pressing question: Who is funding this revival?

Historically, BLA-Azad has struggled to execute large-scale operations. Its unexpected resurgence suggests either internal restructuring or external support—possibly from entities seeking to keep the terrorist activity alive as a strategic tool against Pakistan.

Who Killed BLA Commander Mushtaq ‘Kohi’ in Kabul?

Just as Hyrbyair Marri’s faction resurfaces, the dominant Bashir Zeb-led BLA faces a major setback. The mysterious killing of Mushtaq alias Kohi, a senior commander of the Majeed Brigade, in Kabul has left analysts speculating. Was this an internal purge or a hit orchestrated by hostile intelligence agencies?

Kohi was a key figure in planning attacks against Pakistani security forces. His assassination in Afghanistan signals a trend: BLA’s senior operatives are no longer safe even in what were once considered secure hideouts. With the deaths of both Aslam Achu and now Kohi, if it is maintained that the BLA is losing its stronghold in the region, it might not be an exaggeration.

Also See: Major Blow to BLA: Key Commander Mushtaq “Kohi” Taken Out in Kabul

Is India Fueling the Terrorism in Balochistan?

The resurgence of BLA-Azad and the targeted killings of BLA leaders in Afghanistan bring renewed focus to India’s alleged involvement in terrorist activity in Balochsitan.

In December 2023, Sarfraz Ahmed Bungulzai, a commander of the Baloch National Army (BNA) who had surrendered to the Pakistani government, revealed in a press conference in Quetta that India had been secretly supporting terrorist activities in Balochistan. Bungulzai, who once believed his armed struggle was for Baloch rights, admitted that he was misled into thinking his fight was just. But later he realized that “India is involved in all these conspiracies.”

Bungulzai also mentioned the 2022 helicopter crash that killed six Pakistani army officials, including a general, claiming that Baloch Raj Aajoi Sangar (BRAS) took responsibility for the attack on India’s orders. He further alleged that separatist leaders, after receiving financial support from India, had “shed the blood of their own Baloch people.”

This statement aligns with earlier disclosures, such as the 2016 confessional video of Indian spy agent Kulbhushan Yadav, who was arrested by Pakistani authorities for attempting to infiltrate the country. Yadav, an officer of the Indian Navy, revealed in the video that he had been tasked by RAW with working alongside Baloch insurgents to destabilize Pakistan. Yadav admitted that the operations he carried out, which included criminal activities, were aimed at harming Pakistani citizens.

Reports also indicate that several BLA commanders, including Aslam Baloch, received medical treatment in India under fake identities. Is this enough proof to confirm New Delhi’s hand in sustaining Baloch militancy?

BLA-TTP Alliance: A New Security Nightmare for Pakistan?

Recent intelligence suggests an alarming development—the BLA and Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) may be forging stronger ties. Reports indicate that key leadership positions in the BLA are now being held by Mehsud tribe members from the TTP, signaling a dangerous overlap between the ethno-cultural and ethno-religious terrorist groups.

Captured TTP commander Nasrullah’s confessions about RAW’s financial and logistical support for both groups add weight to concerns that external actors are using terrorism to destabilize Pakistan. Could this alliance escalate violence in the country even further?

What Lies Ahead for Balochistan’s Unrest?

The events of early 2025 depict an increasingly volatile situation. The BLA-Azad faction’s resurgence under Hyrbyair Marri, combined with the assassination of a senior commander from Bashir Zeb’s faction, suggests shifting power dynamics. With the movement becoming increasingly fragmented, predicting the next wave of attacks has become even more difficult.

If BLA-Azad continues receiving funding and logistical support, Balochistan’s security situation could deteriorate rapidly. Meanwhile, the killing of high-profile terrorists in Afghanistan signals a closing window for terrorist safe havens.

Pakistan now faces a multi-pronged challenge: splinter groups gaining traction, foreign intervention fueling internal fault lines, and the dangerous BLA-TTP nexus. Will the state be able to dismantle these networks and neutralize external influences, or is Balochistan headed for even more unrest? The coming months will reveal the answer.

SAT Commentaries’ are social media threads by various authors, reproduced here for website use. Views are their own.