Russia’s Taliban Pivot: A Calculated Play or a Risky Gamble?

In a bold but calculated move, President Vladimir Putin has signed a law on December 28, 2024 enabling Russia to temporarily suspend its ban on the Taliban. The timing is striking—just hours after Russian authorities busted an Islamic State Khorasan Province (ISKP) plot in Moscow. While the Taliban remains officially designated as a terrorist organization under Russian law, this temporary suspension hints at a pragmatic recalibration of Moscow’s strategy in Afghanistan. Russia’s pivot underscores a strategic shift, as Moscow seeks to engage the Taliban pragmatically to counter ISKP threats and stabilize its influence in Afghanistan.

This isn’t a sudden decision. In October, Russia’s special envoy for Afghanistan, Zamir Kabulov, hinted at this development, revealing that a decision in principle to delist the Taliban had already been made at the highest levels. However, the legal and bureaucratic steps to finalize the move had been pending—until now.

Why “Temporary”?

The temporary nature of this suspension underscores Russia’s cautious approach. Moscow appears to be testing the waters, balancing its need for engagement with Afghanistan’s rulers against the risks of fully endorsing their regime. By framing this as a suspension rather than a permanent shift, Russia leaves room to adjust course if the Taliban fails to deliver on counterterrorism commitments, such as curbing ISKP activities or dismantling other terror networks like Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) and Al-Qaeda.

Russia’s Taliban Pivot: The Strategic Goals

Carrying Moscow’s broader geopolitical priorities, Russia’s move also carries a historical resonance, coinciding with the 45th anniversary of the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan. That intervention left a legacy of suffering and instability that continues to reverberate. Now, Moscow seeks to reframe its role in the region—not as a source of conflict but as a stabilizing force. Engaging with the Taliban could position Russia as a central player in the regional fight against terrorism, particularly against ISKP, which has expanded its influence in Afghanistan.

For Russia, Afghanistan offers more than counterterrorism cooperation—it represents a critical link in securing trade routes that bypass Europe, a necessity as Western sanctions bite deeper following the Ukraine invasion. Access to warm-water ports through Afghanistan and Pakistan is key to Russia’s “Eurasian Century” ambitions, positioning it as a dominant player in a multipolar world.

At the same time, Russia views the Taliban as a potential buffer against more immediate threats along its southern border, including the proliferation of extremist networks, such as ISKP, which has intensified its operations in the region. Moscow’s overtures may also preemptively stabilize its southern borders and shore up alliances in Central Asia.

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Comparing U.S. and Russian Moves

While Russia temporarily suspends its Taliban ban, the U.S. remains committed to isolating both Russia and the Taliban. Washington’s overt sanctions aim to cripple Moscow’s economy, while covertly, it may use Afghanistan’s instability as leverage against Russian and Chinese influence in the region.

Russia’s approach is more transactional. By engaging with the Taliban, it hopes to neutralize threats like ISKP and maintain influence in South Asia, even as the U.S. seeks to limit its reach. This mirrors U.S. strategies elsewhere, such as leveraging Kurdish forces in Syria to counter ISIS, but with a distinctive Russian emphasis on economic corridors and regional stabilization.

Pakistan’s Role

Pakistan sits at the center of this geopolitical chessboard. As tensions with Afghanistan escalate, including recent airstrikes targeting TTP terrorists, Islamabad faces mounting pressure to secure its borders and advocate for a multilateral counterterrorism framework. Partnering with Russia, China, and Central Asia to dismantle networks like ISKP and TTP could serve Pakistan’s security interests while countering U.S. skepticism about its role in regional stability.

Russia’s temporary suspension also offers Pakistan an opportunity to deepen ties with Moscow. Shared interests in counterterrorism and regional stability could position Islamabad as a key player in shaping this new regional architecture.

Russia’s Taliban Pivot: A High-Stakes Move

This move raises critical questions. Will this suspension evolve into full recognition of the Taliban? If so, Russia could become the first major power to formally engage with the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan, potentially fracturing the fragile international consensus on Afghanistan and complicating efforts to combat terrorism.

The timing—amid heightened great-power competition and a potential Trump return in 2025—suggests broader geopolitical calculations. A revived Trump administration would likely focus on containing China, and Russia’s proactive engagement in Afghanistan could position Moscow as a regional counterbalance, complicating U.S. strategies.

What’s Next?

Russia’s temporary suspension of the Taliban ban is as much a test as it is a statement. By avoiding permanent recognition, Moscow hedges its bets, signaling openness to cooperation while retaining leverage. For Washington, this calculated move introduces another layer of complexity in its efforts to counter Russia and China.

In the end, whether this gambit pays off depends on the Taliban’s actions and Moscow’s ability to manage the risks. For now, Putin’s cautious pragmatism offers a fascinating contrast: where the U.S. isolates, Russia engages—testing whether engagement can succeed where sanctions and isolation have failed.

SAT Commentaries’ are social media threads by various authors, reproduced here for website use. Views are their own.

SAT Commentary

SAT Commentaries, a collection of insightful social media threads on current events and social issues, featuring diverse perspectives from various authors.

South Asia Times

Russia’s Taliban Pivot: A Calculated Play or a Risky Gamble?