Karachi-Chittagong Link: South Asia's New Game Changer

On November 13, a direct cargo ship from Karachi, Pakistan, docked at the port of Chittagong, Bangladesh, marking the first-ever direct maritime connection between the two nations. The vessel, with a capacity of approximately 2,300 TEUs, carried a diverse array of goods, symbolizing economic exchange and a historic step in enabling bilateral trade and regional integration. Pakistan’s High Commissioner to Bangladesh, Syed Ahmed Maroof, aptly described the move as “a major step forward,” anticipating simplified supply chains, reduced transit times, and lower costs. This development comes against a backdrop of shifting regional dynamics and evolving political landscapes in South Asia, offering a glimpse into what could become a transformative chapter in Pakistan-Bangladesh relations.

Historical Context: Trade Dynamics in Transition

Trade relations between Pakistan and Bangladesh experienced a downturn during Sheikh Hasina’s tenure as Bangladeshi Prime Minister, beginning in 2009. Policies like the imposition of a “Red List” on Pakistani goods caused logistical hurdles, delaying shipments and shrinking trade volumes. However, the September 2024 removal of this designation by Bangladesh’s National Board of Revenue, signed by Mohammad Abdul Qayyum, has reopened doors for smoother trade. With this, a new era of cooperation seems possible, free from the diplomatic shadows of the past. Moreover, this easing of trade barriers is emblematic of a broader shift in Dhaka’s approach, aimed at resetting relations with Islamabad.

Yet, this maritime initiative is not just about bilateral trade. It is the harbinger of regional connectivity that transcends borders, potentially reshaping South Asia’s economic and strategic landscape.

Unlocking Regional Potential of Karachi-Chittagong Link

Pakistan and Bangladesh are strategically located along the Indian Ocean, Bay of Bengal, and Arabian Sea—key maritime routes that can catalyze broader regional integration. This new maritime connection holds the potential to unlock trade opportunities worth billions, especially in textiles, agriculture, chemicals, and pharmaceuticals.

By connecting Chittagong with Karachi, and potentially Gwadar, a trade corridor could emerge linking Afghanistan, Central Asia, Northeast China, and even Sri Lanka, creating a tri-regional trade hub.

Moreover, this maritime network could pave the way for broader multilateral frameworks, such as SAARC, which have remained dormant due to geopolitical frictions. Pakistan’s consistent push for SAARC’s revival gains new traction with Bangladesh’s caretaker government showing a willingness to turn a “new page,” as emphasized during the recent Yunus-Sharif meeting at the United Nations General Assembly.

While SAARC remains inactive due to India’s reservations, Bangladesh’s proactive engagement with Pakistan marks a departure from the Awami League’s policy stance, introducing the prospects for a trilateral framework. Such a framework, potentially involving China as a strategic partner, could serve to counterbalance India’s influence in both South Asia and the Indian Ocean Region (IOR).

**The “Chicken’s Neck” and India’s Waning Grip**

Notably, Bangladesh’s geographical “Chicken’s Neck“—a narrow corridor connecting India’s northeast to the rest of the country—has historically amplified New Delhi’s influence over Dhaka. However, direct maritime connectivity with Pakistan could lessen this dependency, diversifying Bangladesh’s trade partnerships and strategic options. Such developments could subtly counter India’s assertive policies in the Indian Ocean and its hegemonic stance in South Asia.

India’s reluctance to revive SAARC, citing Pakistan’s alleged support for terrorism, has further alienated regional players. Instead, India has pivoted toward platforms like BRICS and G20, focusing on its global ambitions. This pivot leaves a void that Pakistan and Bangladesh, with their newfound maritime collaboration, could leverage to develop a more inclusive and balanced regional framework.

China’s Expanding Role

China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is deeply intertwined with South Asia’s evolving trade architecture, with ports playing a pivotal role in these ambitions. In Bangladesh, Chinese investments in the Chattogram and Mongla seaports highlight Beijing’s intent to consolidate its presence in the Bay of Bengal. These ports, critical to regional trade, are gateways for energy and commerce, connecting South Asia to global markets.

For Beijing, the Karachi-Chittagong route is a strategic win. It dovetails with its vision of integrating South Asia into the BRI, linking Gwadar to Chattogram and beyond, thus encircling India’s influence while bolstering its regional foothold. This offers Beijing an alternative to mitigate vulnerabilities along the Malacca Strait, a critical chokepoint for its energy security.

The Trump Factor: US Indo-Pacific Strategy and Strategic Recalibrations

With Donald Trump’s return to the White House after the 2024 elections, the United States is likely to reinvigorate its Indo-Pacific strategy, aimed at containing China’s rise. While this could increase pressure on Beijing, it also creates an opportunity for China to double down on initiatives like the BRI, leveraging its partnerships with Pakistan and Bangladesh to counterbalance U.S.-India alignment. The new maritime link could serve as a linchpin for Beijing’s South Asian strategy, reinforcing its energy security and trade flows while deterring Washington’s containment efforts.

For Pakistan and Bangladesh, this collaboration represents a pragmatic alignment with China’s economic vision, providing both nations with alternatives to Western-dominated trade corridors.

Karachi-Chittagong Link: A New Era for South Asia

The economic benefits of the Karachi-Chittagong maritime link are vast, promising to unlock billions in trade potential across key sectors such as textiles, agriculture, chemicals, and pharmaceuticals. Emerging industries like information technology and industrial manufacturing stand to benefit as well, offering avenues for deeper economic collaboration. Beyond bilateral trade, this connection holds the potential to link Karachi and Chittagong with Gwadar and Colombo, creating a tri-regional trade network that integrates South Asia, the Middle East, and East Asia.

For Pakistan, this route is a pivotal step toward cementing its role as a strategic player in the Indian Ocean Region, while for Bangladesh, it reflects a maturing foreign policy that balances relationships with China, India, and other regional stakeholders.

However, the Karachi-Chittagong maritime connection is more than a logistical achievement; it symbolizes South Asia’s untapped potential for multilateral collaboration. Strengthened ties between Pakistan and Bangladesh could lay the foundation for trilateral—or even quadrilateral—frameworks involving China and Sri Lanka. Such partnerships could not only dilute India’s regional dominance but also foster economic growth, stability, and a more balanced geopolitical environment.

As the tides of global politics shift, the success of this initiative will hinge on how effectively these nations navigate the complex interplay of diplomacy, infrastructure investment, and strategic foresight. In a region often constrained by historical rivalries, this maritime connection offers a rare opportunity to chart a new course—one that rewrites the narrative of South Asia’s future and transforms latent potential into lasting prosperity.