![As tensions rise before Aman 2025, the Indian Ocean becomes a key battleground for influence, with India and Pakistan's naval posturing at its core. [Image via SAT Creatives]](https://southasiatimes.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/SAT-Web-Banners-3.webp)
In the vast expanse of the Indian Ocean, the world’s most crucial sea lanes crisscross like threads binding the future of trade, power, and the environment. But beneath its shimmering surface, a quieter battle is unfolding. As nations test missiles and enhance naval arsenals, they also write the blueprint for a new era of maritime security. The stakes are high, the players are shifting, and the waters are as turbulent as ever.
This is not just a battle for territorial waters, but a fierce race for influence, military dominance, and, yes, the future of our planet. And as tensions escalate, there is a glaring truth — what happens in the Indian Ocean could very well shape the course of the 21st century.
The Growing Geopolitical Tensions
For centuries, the Indian Ocean has been more than just a body of water. It’s the lifeblood of global trade, a bridge between the East and West, and the home to some of the world’s most critical shipping lanes.
Covering nearly 20% of Earth’s total ocean surface, and it’s home to some of the busiest and most strategic sea lanes on the planet. More than $5 trillion worth of trade passes through it annually, and nearly 40% of the world’s population lives along its coasts.
But it’s not just the trade routes that make the Indian Ocean a prize — it’s the vital resources buried beneath its waters: oil, gas, and minerals that power the economies of the world.
Today, it’s also the epicenter of rising geopolitical competition. As the world’s major powers — from the U.S. to China, Russia, and regional players like India and Pakistan — square off for influence, naval presence has become a cornerstone of strategic dominance.
India, with its growing naval might, and Pakistan, strengthening its maritime deterrence, are both players in this complex game. On November 4, 2024, Pakistan test-fired the SMASH anti-ship missile, designed to enhance its maritime deterrence, from a naval vessel in the northern Arabian Sea. With a range of 350 kilometers, it targets both sea and land objectives, signaling a clear message that the seas around the subcontinent are contested, both militarily and diplomatically.
Meanwhile, India’s naval capabilities are also advancing rapidly, with the development of long-range anti-ship missiles exceeding 1,000 kilometers which is to be tested in the coming days. India’s push for hypersonic missiles and an expanding fleet of advanced warships reflect its ambition to become the dominant naval power in the Indian Ocean. This competitive buildup of military technology, while enhancing national security, is adding fuel to an already volatile region.
The timing of these developments is critical.
With India and Pakistan’s missile tests coinciding with the AMAN Exercises scheduled for February 2025, the tension between military posturing and diplomatic engagement could not be more apparent.
AMAN, a platform for over 50 nations to engage in joint maritime drills, could become an arena for rival powers to test not only their military strategies but also their willingness to cooperate in a shared maritime space. In this charged environment, missile tests may seem like a natural extension of each nation’s security strategy, but their timing—so close to such an international forum—introduces additional strategic dimensions to the situation.
Also See: The Indian Ocean Battle No One’s Talking About!
Non-Traditional Threats: The Ocean’s Silent Crisis
While the political rivalry between India and Pakistan captures much of the attention, the Indian Ocean faces a host of non-traditional security threats that demand global cooperation. Perhaps the most pressing issue is climate change. Rising sea levels are not just a future concern—they are already threatening island nations like the Maldives and Sri Lanka, who face the real possibility of becoming climate refugees. This environmental crisis will only worsen unless meaningful action is taken to mitigate climate change and its associated risks.
Marine pollution is another silent killer. The Indian Ocean is one of the most polluted bodies of water on the planet, with plastic waste and toxic chemicals affecting marine life and, by extension, the livelihood of millions of people who depend on fishing and maritime resources.
The Gulf of Aden, often referred to as the world’s most dangerous waterway due to its role in piracy, is also suffering from the environmental degradation caused by unchecked shipping and the disposal of toxic waste.
The ocean’s resources, meanwhile, remain a target for exploitation by distant water fleets. Illegal, unreported, and unregulated (IUU) fishing is robbing coastal communities of their livelihoods and depleting marine biodiversity, while nuclear waste dumping threatens the very integrity of the marine ecosystem. These threats are not just environmental but strategic, as access to these resources and control over their exploitation will define the future of regional security.
Strategic Deterrence and Kashmir
As India and Pakistan bolster their missile and naval capabilities, the shadows of their long-standing territorial conflict loom large over the Indian Ocean. The Indian Ocean has become a critical arena for strategic deterrence, particularly as both nations develop nuclear-armed naval forces. These capabilities extend beyond land borders, giving the region a new dimension of competition.
The Kashmir dispute, one of the most intractable conflicts of the 21st century, feeds into this maritime arms race. As both nations push forward with missile technology, the ocean serves as a strategic extension of their conflict—an underwater battlefield where control over maritime zones can shift the balance of power. Pakistan’s missile developments, such as the SMASH, are seen as part of a broader strategy to maintain strategic parity with India, while India’s naval ambitions highlight its desire for dominance in the Indian Ocean.
This emerging naval race is not just about military might—it is also about control over vital maritime resources and influence in one of the world’s most strategic regions.
India’s focus on securing critical sea lanes and asserting its presence in the Indian Ocean — under the banner of maritime security and sustainable resource management — is increasingly intersecting with Pakistan’s equally determined stance to preserve its sovereignty and safeguard its territorial waters.
Gwadar, strategically located near the Strait of Hormuz, is a lynchpin in Pakistan’s maritime vision and an essential piece of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), which offers China direct access to the Arabian Sea. As Beijing invests heavily in Gwadar’s infrastructure, Pakistan’s partnership with China strengthens its strategic position in the region, creating a counterbalance to India’s maritime ambitions. For Pakistan, the stakes in this naval race go beyond territorial security—they extend to protecting critical partnerships and regional stability against any attempts to establish a single power’s hegemony in the Indian Ocean.
![Indian Ocean Region: A Strategic Overview [SAT Infovisions]](https://southasiatimes.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/Indian-Ocean-Region-infograph-011-1-scaled.webp)
AMAN 2025: A Moment for Cooperation?
Despite the growing military competition, there’s also a glimmer of hope in the form of multilateral dialogue. AMAN 2025, set to take place in February, is a unique opportunity for regional powers to come together and navigate the challenges of maritime security. The exercises, which will involve naval and coast guard leaders from over 50 countries, represent an attempt to move beyond military rivalry and develop cooperation in the shared maritime space.
In a region as complex and contested as the Indian Ocean, cooperation is not just desirable—it is necessary. Security challenges such as piracy, terrorism, and environmental degradation require a collective response. Pakistan’s initiative in hosting the Aman Exercises is a testament to its commitment to regional security through maritime diploamcy and the belief that dialogue can pave the way for stability in the Indian Ocean.
The Future of Maritime Security
The Indian Ocean is at the crossroads of environmental, political, and military change. As missile tests and military posturing grow, the role of the ocean as a center for power projection is becoming ever more evident. But beneath the waves, the region’s greatest challenge lies not in military dominance, but in finding sustainable ways to manage the sea’s resources and protect the environment that so many depend on.
As Pakistan, India, and other regional players continue to test new weapons, the question remains: Can they overcome their differences to forge a path toward collaboration in the Indian Ocean? The AMAN Exercises in 2025 will be a critical test. But whether cooperation can outweigh competition in this increasingly contested space remains to be seen. The Indian Ocean’s future is not just about who controls the waves—it’s about how nations choose to navigate them together.
Your go-to editorial hub for policy perspectives and informed analysis on pressing regional and global issues.
Add a Comment