The monsoon has arrived in South Asia, following earlier warnings from international bodies like the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) that this year would bring above-normal rainfall. The monsoon plains are already witnessing the early signs of what could be a prolonged and intense season. In India’s mountainous state of Himachal Pradesh, dozens are missing and hundreds of homes have been destroyed. In northern Pakistan, the death toll has already reached 72. International organisations warn that the monsoon this year may last until October, raising fears of a repeat of the devastating 2022 floods.
Those fears stem directly from the disaster of 2022, a catastrophe on an almost unimaginable scale. That year, record-breaking rains inundated a third of Pakistan, with floodwaters directly impacting 33 million people. Over 1,700 lives were lost and more than two million homes were destroyed, while the country’s agricultural heartland was crippled. The World Bank later estimated the economic damage at over $30 billion, a blow from which the nation is still struggling to recover. Both India and Pakistan have historically experienced annual monsoon flooding, but recent years have seen these events grow more intense and destructive.
But increasing monsoon flooding is just one facet of the much larger challenge South Asia is now facing: Climate crisis.
From blistering heatwaves in India and Pakistan that push human survival to its limits, to increasingly ferocious cyclones battering Bangladesh, extreme weather has become the new, dangerous reality for the region’s 1.8 billion inhabitants. These are not merely environmental crises, they pose direct threats to national and regional security, acting as potent threat multipliers in an already volatile part of the world. Left unchecked, climate change is priming South Asia for a future marked by instability, resource competition, and conflict.
The Geopolitical Tinderbox: A Region Already on Edge
South Asia is a region defined by geopolitical fault lines. The long-standing, nuclear-armed rivalry between India and Pakistan, persistent border disputes between India and China, and a tapestry of internal ethnic and religious tensions create a baseline of instability. This pre-existing fragility makes the region uniquely vulnerable to the additional stresses of a changing climate. Decades of mistrust have weakened diplomatic channels and fostered a zero-sum mentality, particularly over shared resources. As climate change intensifies scarcity and drives displacement, it will pour fuel on these smoldering embers, turning environmental crises into national security emergencies.
The Epicenter of the Crisis: Water Wars on the Roof of the World
The Hindu Kush-Himalayan mountain range, often called the “Third Pole,” is the lifeblood of South Asia. Its glaciers feed the Indus, Ganges, and Brahmaputra rivers, supplying water to over a billion people. Today, this vital water tower is melting at an alarming rate. A report warned that the region could lose over a third of its glacial ice by 2100 even if global temperature goals are met. This presents a dual threat. In the short term, accelerated melting increases the risk of catastrophic Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs). In the long term, the region faces “peak water”, a point after which river flows will begin a catastrophic and permanent decline. Further complicating matters is the rapid depletion of groundwater in the Indo-Gangetic Plain, a region vital for food production encompassing northern India and Pakistan. This groundwater is being extracted at a rate significantly exceeding its replenishment by increasingly unpredictable monsoon rains.
This escalating water crisis is intensifying transboundary tensions. The 1960 Indus Waters Treaty between India and Pakistan, which has survived three wars, is under unprecedented strain as river flows dwindle and both countries pursue dam projects. Similarly, India and Bangladesh are also jostling over a water-sharing treaty, about to expire in 2026. Further north, China’s extensive dam-building on the upper reaches of the Brahmaputra (Yarlung Tsangpo) has sparked profound anxiety in downstream India and Bangladesh. In this context, water scarcity is no longer just a humanitarian concern, it is a direct trigger for interstate conflict, a driver of internal social unrest over water allocation, and a fundamental threat to the economic stability of the entire region.
The Disappearing Coastlines: Existential Threats and Mass Displacement
While the mountains face melting ice, South Asia’s low-lying coastal zones are being consumed by rising seas. Bangladesh and the Maldives are ground zero for this crisis. With two-thirds of its land less than five meters above sea level, Bangladesh faces a dual threat from sea-level rise and more intense cyclones barreling through the Bay of Bengal. The impacts are cascading: permanent coastal inundation, the contamination of drinking water, and the loss of vast tracts of agricultural land to saltwater intrusion. The World Bank projects that by 2050, over 13 million Bangladeshis could become internal climate migrants.
For the Maldives, the threat is nothing short of existential. With 80% of its islands less than a meter above sea level, the nation faces the real prospect of being wiped off the map, raising unprecedented questions about the future and the legal status of a stateless people. The security implications of this mass displacement are staggering.
An uncontrolled exodus from coastal areas will place unbearable pressure on inland cities in Bangladesh. For countries like Maldives, this human tide could easily spill across borders, straining resources, fueling xenophobia, and igniting new conflicts over land, jobs, and identity in a region already struggling with demographic pressures.
The Empty Granary: Agricultural Collapse and Food Insecurity
Climate change is launching a multi-pronged assault on South Asia’s food systems. Erratic monsoons deliver too much or too little rain at the wrong times, while intensifying heatwaves scorch staple crops. Recent studies project that, without significant adaptation, climate change could reduce wheat yields in India by up to 25% by 2050. Prolonged droughts are becoming more common, and livestock are perishing under heat stress and fodder shortages. This is not just a crisis of calories but of nutrition, threatening to reverse decades of public health gains.
The economic and human cost is devastating for the hundreds of millions of smallholder farmers and landless laborers who form the backbone of the rural economy. As livelihoods collapse, a wave of mass rural-to-urban migration is adding immense pressure to already overcrowded cities. Widespread food insecurity is a classic driver of civil unrest and food riots. For governments across the region, the inability to ensure basic food security for their populations is a direct threat to their legitimacy and control, creating dangerous power vacuums and threatening state stability.
Way Forward: Defusing the Time Bomb Through Cooperation
The interconnected threats of water scarcity, sea-level rise, food insecurity, and mass migration are converging to create South Asia’s ultimate security challenge. The region stands at a critical juncture. It can continue down a path of competition and rivalry, where nations hoard resources and build walls, leading to a mutually destructive lose-lose scenario. Or, it can choose cooperation, recognizing that the climate crisis is a shared threat that transcends borders.
Defusing this time bomb requires a paradigm shift. Regional institutions like the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC), long dormant due to political reasons, must be revitalized with a clear mandate for climate security. This includes joint investment in climate-resilient infrastructure, the creation of regional early warning systems, and the development of shared water management technologies. Crucially, building trust requires a commitment to transparent data sharing on transboundary river flows. The climate security time bomb in South Asia is ticking loudly. Defusing it requires the region’s leaders to finally act with the unity of purpose that their shared vulnerability so urgently demands.
