Qingdao 2025: The SCO Summit That Could Redefine Asia

Qingdao isn’t just hosting a summit, it’s staging a showdown. For the first time since May’s military flashpoint (Marka-e-Haq), Pakistan and India’s top defense brass are under the same roof. Khawaja Asif and Rajnath Singh, fresh from the heat of cross-border tensions, are in China for the 2025 Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) Defense Ministers’ Meeting. Both top leaders may not have exchanged handshakes yet, but the energy is palpable. With tensions still simmering post-May, all eyes are on whether the SCO summit can initiate backchannel diplomacy or if it simply delays the next flashpoint.

Why the SCO Summit Matters More Than Ever

Often dubbed the “NATO of the East”, the SCO is no fringe bloc. It represents:
covering nearly 43% of the global population (around 3.4 billion people) and spanning about 60% of Eurasia, surely has the potential for it. Founded on pillars of counterterrorism, regional security, and economic cooperation, the SCO’s relevance in today’s polarized geopolitical climate cannot be overstated. And in Qingdao, the agenda is clear: neutralize growing hostilities among key members while reinforcing a vision of Asian-led multipolarity.

Terrorism at the Core, Tensions at the Table

The SCO’s bedrock is counter-terrorism, and the timing couldn’t be sharper. With Islamabad exposing Indian state-backed proxy networks sponsoring terrorism in Pakistan, and Tehran confirming Mossad-linked Indian spies on its soil, the bloc’s call for coordinated counter-terror efforts hits home. Pakistan arrives with credibility: a front-line state in the war on terror, now pushing for deeper SCO cooperation to tackle new-age threats, from cyber sabotage to proxy wars.
Chinese Defense Minister Dong Jun made the message explicit:
“Unilateralism and hegemonic behavior are the biggest threats to global order.”
Translation: Western powers and their regional partners, particularly the U.S. and India, are being cautioned against destabilizing Asia’s emerging security consensus.

After May: The First Glare, Not Yet a Dialogue

This summit marks the first in-person proximity between India and Pakistan’s defense ministers since May’s flashpoint. It follows yesterday’s SCO NSA-level meeting in Beijing, where Pakistan’s NSA Gen. Asim Malik and his Indian counterpart shared the same room. No fireworks, but no thaw either.
Meanwhile’s the Regional Anti-Terrorism Structure (RATS) has disrupted over 600 potential attacks, facilitated more than 500 terrorist extraditions, and identified 42 extremist groups and 1,100 individuals across the bloc.

This level of cooperation underscores the SCO’s evolution from a symbolic platform to a serious regional security framework. In this backdrop, will Khawaja Asif and Rajnath Singh speak on the sidelines? That’s the diplomatic question of the hour. Even without a meeting, the message is clear: Pakistan will not be sidelined in forums shaping regional security, and India must reconsider its choices.

Iran Enters the Fold And Tilts Eastward

Iran’s defense minister is also in Qingdao. But more importantly, Tehran is now walking the talk. After ditching the U.S.-made GPS for China’s Beidou and exposing Indian espionage activities on its soil, Iran is doubling down on Eastward alignment.

Beijing, Islamabad, and now Tehran, once loosely aligned, are beginning to form a hardened junction of security cooperation. For Pakistan, this is strategic gold: a chance to lock arms with regional powers against common threats.

Qingdao’s Real Message: A New Axis Is Brewing

The SCO is no longer just a strategic club, it’s a financial and infrastructure behemoth. Here’s how China is asserting dominance across member states:

China’s economic influence in the SCO region is extensive and strategically significant. In Pakistan it has invested $62 billion through the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), focusing on infrastructure such as ports, energy, and digital fibre optics. Despite political tensions, bilateral trade with India reached $136 billion in 2023. In Sri Lanka, China poured over $12 billion into major projects, including ports and urban infrastructure. Bangladesh received over $10 billion for the transport and energy sectors.
In Central Asia, China’s presence is equally strong. Uzbekistan attracted $4 billion in energy investments, and Tajikistan received $3 billion for roads and power infrastructure. Kazakhstan is home to the Khorgos Logistics Hub, a key part of China’s regional logistics plans.
Large-scale projects also highlight Beijing’s influence. The $55 billion Power of Siberia pipeline connects Russian gas to China. The China-Eurasia Fund has $5 billion for development efforts, and a ¥30 billion Interbank Consortium funds SCO projects. These figures showcase China’s dominant economic role in the Eurasian heartland.

What Each Player Wants from Qingdao

The Qingdao summit has become a chessboard for influence. Here’s what the key players are angling for:

India wants strategic relevance in a world it is sharply losing ground in.
Pakistan seeks both recognition as a stabilizer and stability on its soil.
Iran is angling for deeper trust after the recent confrontation, exposing many.
China is cementing its leadership in this seismic geo-political landscape.

And behind it all? A shared frustration with unilateral dominance and a growing appetite for a multipolar security order.

Is a New Axis Emerging? And What to Watch?

Qingdao’s true message may not be in speeches, but in silent alignments. An emerging arc of China, Pakistan, and Iran is taking shape, poised to counter Western influence and redefine Asia’s future. The question now is whether the SCO can transcend symbolic meetings and provide real diplomatic traction or if it’s simply buying time before the next regional crisis.
If backchannel diplomacy starts here, Qingdao 2025 could be the pivot from confrontation to cautious recalibration. If not, it’s a photo-op on borrowed time.