Missiles Overhead, Peace Underground: The Case of Iran-Israel Tensions

The world is going through significant change. It’s a war year in the making. As per Friday, with silent backing from the Trump administration, Israel finally unleashed a series of coordinated strikes on Iran’s nuclear and military facilities. Such bold actions have once again pushed the region of the Middle East into a terrifying new chapter which is not expected to end anytime soon. Now, the region is at war. Iran has retaliated forcefully to what it calls unjustified aggression, and what might have been seen as a targeted operation has escalated into a full-scale war between the rivals, one that now threatens to drag in the entire region and perhaps the world.

US Involvement and Escalation

President Donald Trump’s statement that he shared in his tweet was all about urging “everyone to immediately evacuate Tehran” and signals more than just concern. It yet again marks the US and its direct involvement in conflict it once claimed to want to avoid right from the time Israel first attacked Iran. The same man who campaigned on staying out of foreign wars is now presiding over what could become one of the most volatile international crises of our time.

There are reports that are circulating on social media that the US may even supply Israel with powerful 13,600-kilogram bunker-busting bombs. Those bombs alone are capable of destroying Iran’s heavily fortified underground nuclear facilities. But it will be not wrong to say that bombs don’t build peace. If anything, this escalation could obliterate what little hope was left for diplomacy and the use of soft power in the world. Paradoxically, even as Trump insists that Iran “wants to make a deal”, his administration is now fuelling a full scale war that could ultimately make any future negotiation nearly impossible.

The Demise of Diplomacy

As Vali Nasr, an academic and former US diplomat, recently remarked that this is notdiplomacy; rather it’s a war diplomacy. And expecting Iran to come to the table with missiles flying overhead is just like planting olive trees in a battleground. Nuclear negotiations between the US and Iran were scheduled few days before the conflict erupted. It was expected that both the countries would meet in Oman for nuclear talks. By all accounts, progress was made. Even Iran agreed to send its foreign minister and Trump on the other hand, picked Steve Witkoff as his envoy. But the current move by Israel and its conventional warfare style blew up everything including the talks themselves.

As far as negotiation on a nuclear deal is concerned, Israel has long opposed the idea of a negotiation with Iranians on the nuclear domain. It saw the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Act(JCPOA), which was signed by Iran and six major powers, as a mistake, even though it placed strict limits on Iran’s nuclear activities under international oversight. That deal was scrapped back then by Trump in 2018 during his first presidential tenure. A move that was widely seen as a diplomatic blunder by international experts, it ultimately paved the way for such a geopolitical scenario which signalized that the world is now less safe.

Regional Dynamics and International Law

Now, with Iran already reeling from regional losses in Syria and Lebanon, Israel may have seen an opportunity to act decisively. And although the US initially tried to publicly distance itself from this conflict, there’s no doubt Washington had prior knowledge about what Israel was going to do. What’s perhaps most alarming and threatening to the peace of this region is the chorus of support that is coming from Western capitals. Taking an example of the G7 leaders who in a meeting recently held in Canada, threw their weight behind Israel, calling Iran the main source of “regional instability and terror”.

In all this scenario, where is the concern for international law? Where is the outrage for innocent civilians that are trapped in the line of fire? The ongoing strikes and all those retaliatory campaigns, whether being carried out by Israel or Iran, are unfolding in blatant disregard of Article 51 of the UN Charter, which permits the use of force only in case of self defence. However, what we are witnessing today is not proportionate self-defence, but this is becoming a dangerous normalisation of unilateral military action without any legal accountability or global scrutiny.

Dire Consequences and Unforeseen Risks

For now it has been clear that the US has been drawn into a war. The US is in that situation where it can neither control nor exit easily from this entire situation. The consequences are becoming dire as American support is itself emboldening Israel. As per the reports circulating on social media, Israel is not just targeting infrastructure but also civilians in Iran and perhaps even plotting to assassinate the Supreme Leader of Iran. If that happens, that would be clearly a red line, not just for Tehran but for the international community. It will be a spark in an already volatile powder keg.

Iran, for its part, has shown through its actions that it will not go quietly. In a couple of days, it launched hundreds of ballistic missiles straight into Israeli territory. Civilians have been killed. Infrastructure has been damaged. For the first time in its history, Israel is walking through the very storm it has long stirred for others. Even if Israel’s strikes have dented Iran’s military as well as nuclear capabilities, the war is not going to be over. Iran’s ability to sustain a prolonged conflict should not be undervalued. And the risk of nuclear contamination is now becoming real with each passing day. It is becoming so real that the head of the International Atomic Energy Agency, Rafael Grossi, has warned of potential radiological and chemical fallout from the damaged sites.

What we are witnessing is not just another Middle Eastern flare-up. The historic lessons from Iraq, Afghanistan, Syria, and Libya are painfully clear: military intervention creates far more chaos rather than resolving it. If in case, American troops end up on the grounds of the Middle East, things will ultimately shape in such a way where there would be no end to the war. The threatening statements made by Iran that it would target US bases and their linked interests in the region are themselves signaling something worrisome and not to be taken lightly. For all this, the consequences would be devastating, although not just for the Middle East but for the stability of this planet too.

Lessons from 1945 shall not be missed. The world cannot afford this war where the world is already gripped with numerous social, political, and economic crises. US involvement in the Middle East has often ignited wars it cannot itself control. Such wars that silence diplomacy and empower destruction. However, diplomacy may be bruised, but it shall not be declared as dead. The question is whether our leaders have the courage to revive it before it’s too late.

_{The views expressed in this article are the author’s own. They do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of the South Asia Times.}

Hamna Ghias

Hamna Ghias Sheikh, an MPhil International Relations Scholar, Research Associate at Pakistan Navy War College, columnist specializing in international affairs. With a growing focus on the energy sector, particularly exploration and production (E&P) in offshore drilling, she is rapidly establishing herself as a subject matter expert in this critical area. Can be reached at hamna.sheikh009@gmail.com