High Stakes: Five Eyes, India-Canada Row and US Elections

As the United States elections kick off on November 5, 2024, the renewed India-Canada row has escalated into a full-blown diplomatic crisis, and the world is watching. This latest development has gained renewed focus following Canadian Deputy Foreign Affairs Minister David Morrison’s statement, which came nearly 15 days after Canada expelled India’s top diplomat. 

Morrison’s confirmation during a parliamentary session that Indian Home Minister Amit Shah was implicated in a campaign of violence and intimidation targeting Sikh separatists in Canada only heightens the stakes. He revealed that he had confirmed Shah’s name to The Washington Post, which first reported these allegations. “The journalist called me and asked if it was that person. I confirmed it was that person,” Morrison stated.

Also See: Trudeau Accuses India of Targeting Sikh Separatist Leaders

The Allegations Behind the India-Canada Row

At the heart of this dispute are allegations that Indian agents played a role in the assassination of Hardeep Singh Nijjar, a Canadian citizen and pro-Khalistan Sikh leader. For Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, this is not just a claim but a serious charge supported by intelligence reports linking Indian operatives to Nijjar’s murder.  

The Escalation of India-Canada Row: What Does it Hold?

For many, this moment is more than a bilateral dispute. It is a stark reflection of India’s increasingly bold approach on the international stage—an approach where sovereignty and diplomacy seem to matter less than silencing dissent, even if that dissent resides in other countries. The fact that India swiftly rejected Trudeau’s allegations and retaliated by expelling diplomats speaks volumes. India is sending a message, not just to Canada, but to the world: it will protect its national interests by any means necessary, and it is willing to cross borders to do so.  

India’s Historical Interventions: A Broader Context

But let’s take a step back. This diplomatic showdown with Canada, while headline-grabbing, is not an isolated case of Indian behaviour. Countries like Pakistan have long warned of India’s covert interference beyond its borders. Pakistan’s own experience with India’s foreign interventions, particularly in the realm of espionage and covert operations, is well-documented. The arrest of Kulbhushan Jadhav, an Indian Navy officer captured in Balochistan and accused of conducting espionage and sabotage, remains fresh in memory. That case gave Pakistan firsthand proof of India’s shadowy hand in its internal affairs. Now, as Canada is grappling with similar accusations, it’s clear that India’s covert ambitions extend far beyond South Asia.  

For Pakistan, the Canada-India row vindicates long-held concerns about India’s foreign policy overreach. 

Whether it’s meddling in Pakistan’s internal politics or propping up separatist movements, India has made it clear that it’s willing to operate in the shadows to secure its objectives. The question now is whether the international community will take notice. Canada’s claims, while still unfolding, open up a broader conversation about India’s role on the global stage. Is this the behaviour of a responsible democracy, or of a state that feels it can act with impunity outside its borders?  

Strained Alliances

From a geopolitical standpoint, the timing of this crisis could not be worse for India. The West has spent years building strategic partnerships with New Delhi as a counterweight to China. But the question that looms large is: how sustainable are these partnerships if India is willing to undermine the sovereignty of its allies in the process? Countries like the U.S., the United Kingdom, and Australia, which have significant Indian diaspora communities and economic ties with India, may soon find themselves asking difficult questions. Can they rely on a partner accused of conducting assassinations on foreign soil? Will they continue to turn a blind eye to India’s more covert activities in the interest of broader strategic goals?  

The ‘Five Eyes’ Factor and Transnational Terrorism  

As the Five Eyes intelligence alliance, which includes the U.S., U.K., Canada, Australia, and New Zealand, weighs in on the Canada-India crisis, the implications of India’s transnational terrorism footprint become more concerning. Several of these countries, particularly Canada and the U.K., host significant Sikh and Kashmiri diaspora communities that have long been on India’s radar. But as these nations begin to take stock of India’s shadow tactics, they may have to reconsider their relationships with New Delhi, especially in light of the U.S. elections in November 2025.  

India’s strides in covert operations have not gone unnoticed. If the U.S. elections bring a shift in the White House, could we see a recalibration of American policy towards India? Both Democratic and Republican leadership may need to reassess India’s role in transnational terrorism. This reassessment is especially pressing if these covert operations continue targeting individuals and movements in allied countries. Will the U.S. continue to strengthen its strategic alliance with India while it allegedly carries out extraterritorial actions undermining Western allies’ sovereignty? These questions remain open as Washington prepares for a potential foreign policy pivot in 2025.

Moreover, the Five Eyes alliance, with its focus on intelligence sharing and cooperation against global threats, might find itself in a dilemma. Can the alliance ignore India’s extraterritorial operations, which have now allegedly surfaced in Canada—a core Five Eyes member? This diplomatic row may force the Five Eyes nations to rethink how they deal with India moving forward, as well as the potential repercussions if they choose to either confront or overlook New Delhi’s activities. Global eyes are watching the India-Canada row, and the Five Eyes alliance will likely play a pivotal role in shaping future conversations around India’s actions on the international stage.  

The Israeli Playbook in Kashmir and U.S. Support  

Moreover, it is noteworthy that India’s covert operations are not limited to targeting dissidents abroad; the same assertive, often aggressive, tactics can be seen in how it handles internal dissent, particularly in Kashmir. 

Kashmir and Israel: A Shared Strategy?

India’s approach to the Kashmir issue often mirrors Israel’s handling of the Palestinian territories. It employs a mix of military force, intelligence operations, and settlement strategies to maintain control. This parallel raises an important question. If the U.S. continues to support Israel despite its controversial policies, could India be following a similar path in Kashmir? Is India acting with the expectation of continued U.S. backing?

The U.S. has consistently stood by Israel, even in the face of international criticism. This suggests that Washington prioritizes strategic interests over human rights concerns. India, aware of this dynamic, appears to be applying the Israeli playbook in Kashmir. India seems to believe that U.S. strategic interests in countering China will continue to outweigh any moral or legal objections to its actions in the region.

Will the blind support of the U.S. for Israel translate into similar backing for India, despite its controversial policies in Kashmir and abroad? Or will there be a point where U.S. policymakers draw a line, particularly if India’s actions begin to destabilize key allies like Canada?

In this regard, the U.S. elections 2024 could bring this dynamic into sharper focus. Depending on the outcome, Washington’s stance on both Israel and India may be reevaluated. If a more isolationist or human rights-oriented administration comes into power, the U.S. could potentially shift its approach, raising critical questions about India’s policies in Kashmir and its broader covert operations abroad. 

Canada and the West: Rethinking Engagement with India

For the Sikh diaspora, particularly in countries like Canada, the threat feels personal. Sikh separatism may not be the global issue it once was, but for India, the mere mention of Khalistan raises alarm bells. India has long pressed countries like Canada to crack down on Sikh separatist groups, but as the Najjar case illustrates, it seems that when diplomacy fails, India is willing to take matters into its own hands. This raises a deeply troubling question: how far will India go in dealing with dissenters abroad?  

Canada’s stance, while bold, is grounded in credible intelligence. Trudeau’s government has indicated that it holds solid evidence linking Indian agents to the assassination of Hardeep Singh Nijjar. However, the full extent of that evidence has not been made public. This is not a case of unsubstantiated claims. Instead, these are carefully weighed accusations backed by reliable sources. Canada’s decision to call out India on this issue demonstrates a strong commitment to upholding international law and protecting its sovereignty. By taking a firm stand, Canada is sending a powerful message to the world. Foreign interference will not be tolerated, regardless of the power or influence of the state involved.

Canada’s move reflects a deeper principle in global diplomacy—sovereignty matters, and no nation, regardless of its standing, should feel empowered to cross borders with impunity. 

In an increasingly interconnected world, alliances are crucial. Canada’s actions remind the international community that national integrity must be preserved at all costs. Trudeau’s boldness may strain relations with India. However, it upholds a critical precedent: foreign powers cannot interfere in the internal affairs of sovereign states without consequences. This principle resonates globally. Other countries with large diaspora communities may begin to question how far India, or any other state, will go to exert influence abroad.

Relevance of Pakistan’s Long-held Concerns

And this is where Pakistan’s experience becomes relevant. For years, Pakistan has raised alarms about India’s subversive tactics, not just in Balochistan or Kashmir, but across its borders. Pakistan’s vocal stance about India’s covert ambitions has largely fallen on deaf ears in the West, often dismissed as part of the regional rivalry narrative. Now, however, with Canada—a close Western ally—raising its concerns, the global audience can no longer ignore what’s happening.  

For Pakistan, this is more than just a matter of schadenfreude. It’s a moment of clarity. What’s happening in Canada is a stark reminder of India’s broader geopolitical ambitions—ambitions that extend far beyond the subcontinent. 

The diplomatic fallout between India and Canada will have long-term ramifications. Canada has taken a principled stand. However, this stance also highlights the risks of engaging with India without fully grasping how far New Delhi will go to protect its interests. For the international community, the lesson is clear. As India rises on the global stage, its covert ambitions will also grow. For countries like Pakistan, the India-Canada row serves as a sobering vindication. It reinforces what Pakistan has long been warning the world about.

Haris Bilal Malik

Haris Bilal Malik is an Islamabad-based independent researcher and policy analyst specializing in contemporary South Asian issues. Formerly a researcher at the Centre for Aerospace & Security Studies (CASS) in Islamabad, he holds an M.Phil in International Relations from the National Defence University (NDU), Islamabad. His expertise lies in regional and international security, particularly nuclear security. He has also worked with the Strategic Vision Institute (SVI), Muslim Youth University (MYU), and the South Asian Strategic Stability Institute (SASSI).

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