As Pakistan Hosts SCO, India’s Diplomatic Dilemmas Unfold

As Pakistan hosts the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) summit, India’s diplomatic dilemmas come into sharp focus. India, once guided by the wisdom of Chanakya, seems to have drifted from the strategic principles laid down by its forebears centuries ago.

As the largest South Asian state, India has faced major diplomatic setbacks in recent years. The rift with its immediate neighbors—Maldives, Nepal, Sri Lanka, and Bangladesh—has widened. Relations with Canada, Australia, and Russia have also grown tense over espionage and illegal arms sales. Additionally, India has struggled to engage effectively in multilateral forums like RCEP and SAARC. These challenges have contributed to India’s diplomatic dilemmas, pushing the country on a downward trajectory.

Diplomatic Failures viz-a-viz Multilateral Forums

Withdrawal from RCEP: A Missed Opportunity

India withdrew from the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) in 2019, citing concerns over market access and trade imbalances with China. RCEP is a free trade agreement involving 15 Asia-Pacific countries, which was signed in 2020. India presented its withdrawal as a move to protect domestic industries. However, this decision led to a loss of economic integration in Asia. It also marked a setback for India’s “Act East” policy, further compounding India’s diplomatic dilemmas.

The SAARC Dilemma: A Forum in Limbo

SAARC has become a graveyard of diplomatic failures, mainly due to India’s security concerns. India’s alleged threats from Pakistan and its efforts to isolate Pakistan from regional forums led to the collapse of SAARC. Since 2014, no SAARC summit has taken place. India refused to attend the 2016 summit scheduled in Pakistan, citing concerns over Pakistan’s alleged support for militant activities. This included the Pulwama attack in Jammu and Kashmir, which Pakistan claims resulted from India’s own policies in the region.

Disinformation and Espionage: Erosion of Credibility

Unveiling Covert Operations: EU Disinformation Lab Findings

Another major diplomatic setback for India came from the revelations by the EU DisinfoLab. The report exposed India’s use of a covert disinformation campaign against Pakistan through a network of fake media outlets and NGOs. This 15-year operation undermined India’s credibility on the global stage. It also raised questions about India’s commitment to transparency and ethical engagement in international relations, further contributing to India’s diplomatic dilemmas.

Espionage Controversies: Accusations from Canada

Canadian authorities have repeatedly accused Indian agents of engaging in “homicides, extortion, and violent acts.” These actions primarily targeted proponents of the pro-Khalistan movement, which advocates for a separate Sikh homeland in India. In 2020, Canadian authorities uncovered a network of individuals allegedly working for Indian intelligence. These individuals were tasked with spying on pro-Khalistan groups and Sikh community leaders in Canada.

Despite warnings and international criticism, India continued its espionage activities in Canada. The situation escalated as the Indian-Canadian row over Hardeen Singh Najar’s alleged murder by Indian authorities intensified. On October 14, 2024, both countries responded by expelling their top envoys and other diplomats.

Kulbhushan Jadhav: A Diplomatic Blow

The arrest of India’s Research and Analysis Wing’s operative Kulbhushan Jadhav by Pakistani authorities in March 2016 in Balochistan served as another blow to India’s diplomacy and added to India’s diplomatic dilemmas. Pakistan presented Jadhav as proof of Indian meddling in Pakistan’s internal affairs, particularly in its restive Balochistan province. While Pakistan sentenced him to death, India took the case to the International Court of Justice (ICJ), which stayed the execution and ordered Pakistan to review his trial.

Spy Networks in Australia: Exposed

A “nest” of Indian spies was expelled from Australia in 2020 for attempting to steal defence secrets and surveilling Indian expatriate communities. The Australian government had previously refrained from naming the country due to the increased security relationship between India and Australia in QUAD but did mention the presence of a “nest of spies,” illustrating another instance contributing to India’s diplomatic dilemmas.

Failed Assassination Plot in the U.S: A Dangerous Game

The Washington Post reported that India’s Research and Analysis Wing (RAW) reportedly planned a failed assassination attempt on Gurpatwant Singh Pannun, a U.S. citizen and Sikh separatist who vocally criticizes Prime Minister Narendra Modi. U.S. federal agencies foiled the plot after Pannun’s assassin turned out to be an informer. The same officer allegedly participated in the assassination of Hardeep Singh Nijjar, a Sikh activist, in Canada in June 2023.

Also See: Rape Culture in India: The Enduring Crisis

Diplomatic Mishandling with Neighboring Countries

Strained Ties with Bangladesh: A Cautionary Tale

India’s unconditional support for Sheikh Hasina, even as she became increasingly authoritarian, alienated other stakeholders in Bangladesh and overlooked public discontent. This were obvious violent riots in Bangladesh when Modi visited it in 2021. Moreover, India’s mistreatment of the Muslim minority in India also alienated Bangladesh’s people from India. Now that Hasena is no longer in power in Bangladesh, India’s diplomatic engagement with the country is in shackles. Had it been following a rules-based and rational approach, it would not have been at sea in the diplomatic mingling with the new government in Dhaka.

Nepal’s Shift: From Allies to Adversaries

India’s long-standing cordial relations with Nepal took a sharp turn when the latter declared it as a secular republic in 2015. India put a trade blockade on Nepal which pushed millions of people in Nepal to the brink of food shortage and death.  Missteps and assertive stance towards Nepal have caused a great deal of damage, eventually pushing Nepal towards China to advance its ties in trade, investment and military relations.

Maldives’ “India Out” Movement: A Diplomatic Setback

India’s diplomatic relationship with the Maldives has recently faced significant strain after Mohammed Muizzu’s victory in the 2023 presidential election. Muizzu’s “India Out” campaign, which calls for the removal of Indian military personnel from the Maldives, has soured relations between the two nations. This tension was exacerbated by Muizzu’s swift pivot toward China, as seen during his state visits to Türkiye and China, bypassing the traditional first visit to India by new Maldivian presidents. India’s diplomatic dilemma is further complicated by calls from Muizzu’s government for the withdrawal of Indian military personnel by March 2024. This ultimatum, combined with the Maldives’ growing ties with China, reflects a significant setback for India’s influence in the region, coming at a time when India is striving to maintain its leadership in the Indian Ocean.

Sri Lanka’s Election: New Challenges Ahead

The victory of Anura Kumara Dissanayake in Sri Lanka’s late-September 2024 elections, as a leader from the Marxist Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP) party, presents another diplomatic challenge for India in its regional strategy. Dissanayake’s party has traditionally held strong anti-India views, rooted in their left-wing ideology and opposition to what they see as India’s influence over Sri Lankan affairs. This election outcome further complicates India’s already delicate relationship with Sri Lanka, which has been under pressure due to various geopolitical factors.

Adding to this tension is the ongoing dispute over Katchatheevu, a small uninhabited island in the waters between India and Sri Lanka. The issue resurfaced in April 2024, when Prime Minister Narendra Modi launched a scathing critique of the Congress party for “callously” conceding Katchatheevu to Sri Lanka in 1974. Referencing a report from the Times of India, PM Modi posted on the microblogging platform X (formerly Twitter), stating, “Eye-opening and startling! New facts reveal how Congress callously gave away Katchatheevu…” This renewed focus on Katchatheevu exacerbates the rift, illustrating the challenges India faces in navigating its relationship with a Sri Lankan government that may further align itself against Indian interests.

Russia’s Frustration: Arms Sales and Diplomatic Fallout

India has angered its long-standing defence and strategic ally, Russia, by selling arms to Ukraine during the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war. Russia, a key defence partner, has expressed concerns over these munitions transfers. This raises the possibility of a diplomatic fallout between New Delhi and Moscow.

Despite Russia’s protests, India has not taken decisive action to stop the flow of munitions to Ukraine. This could strain the historically warm ties between India and Russia, which have been built on decades of defence cooperation. India’s failure to address this issue raises questions about its commitment to defence export policies and the diplomatic consequences of appearing indifferent to Russian concerns.

India’s Diplomatic Struggles and Regional Realignments

Currently, India’s diplomatic relations with its immediate neighbours are strained, particularly with Sri Lanka, Nepal, the Maldives, and Bangladesh. These countries have exhibited varying degrees of discontent with India’s influence and policies. Afghanistan remains the only country in the region with which India enjoys a relatively positive relationship. 

In contrast to India, Pakistan has made notable strides in diplomacy and soft power projection. While Pakistan may not have strong ties with major Western countries, it does not face the same hostilities that India is increasingly encountering. The West’s response to Pakistan remains neutral, unlike the worsening relations between the West and India. 

Pakistan’s role as the host of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) summit marks a significant diplomatic achievement. It underscores Pakistan’s growing influence in regional security, economic cooperation, and political coordination. Hosting the summit allows Pakistan to strengthen its ties with major powers like China and Russia, demonstrating its commitment to regional stability and collaboration.

These recent incidents highlight the shortcomings of India’s interventionist strategy. They reveal a clear disconnect between the government’s narrative and public awareness. India needs to engage in critical introspection of its regional relations. Recalibrating its approach towards Pakistan and China is essential. Additionally, fostering genuine South Asian cooperation will help India move beyond its current misadventures and bluster.

SAT Commentaries’ are social media threads by various authors, reproduced here for website use. Views are their own.

SAT Commentary

SAT Commentaries, a collection of insightful social media threads on current events and social issues, featuring diverse perspectives from various authors.

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