The US Report on Pakistan’s May Win

The release of the 2025 Annual Report to Congress by the US-China Economic and Security Review Commission (USCC) marks an important moment in South Asian geopolitical analysis. For decades, Western institutional narratives have often leaned cautiously toward preserving the status quo or bolstering the image of India as a net security provider in the Indo-Pacific. However, the explicit phrasing in the November 2025 report, specifically noting “Pakistan’s military success over India”, serves as a stunning, albeit reluctant, validation of a shift in the regional balance of power. When a bipartisan US commission, which is traditionally hawkish on China and sympathetic to India’s strategic utility, admits to a Pakistani battlefield triumph, it functions as a definitive historical stamp on the events of May 2025.

The primary weight of the proof lies in the Commission’s choice of words. Diplomatic reports typically use neutral language such as “standoff,” “exchange,” or “inconclusive engagement.” By deliberately selecting the phrase “military success,” the USCC effectively bypasses the fog of war that usually obscures such conflicts. The report details that the four-day clash was not merely a skirmish but a real-world field experiment where Pakistani forces, utilizing Chinese hardware, achieved tangible tactical dominance.

This admission is significant because it dismantles the narrative of the French-made Rafale’s invincibility in the South Asian theater. For years, the induction of the Rafale into the Indian Air Force was touted as a game-changer that would grant New Delhi undisputed air superiority. The USCC report, however, confirms that the combination of the J-10C fighter, the PL-15 air-to-air missile, and the Chinese air defense system neutralized this advantage. By stating that these systems were used in active combat and showcased their sophistication, the report implicitly validates the Pakistani claim of establishing an air denial bubble that the Indian Air Force (IAF) could not penetrate without unacceptable losses.

The USCC’s findings do not exist in a vacuum. Over the last six months, a consensus has quietly formed among global defense analysts, corroborating the assessment of a Pakistani victory.

In June 2025, The Diplomat published a detailed analysis on the 100-Hour War, focusing on the electronic warfare domain. Their assessment aligned with the USCC’s findings, noting that the PL-15E missile, integrated with Chinese tactical data links, provided Pakistan with a first-shot advantage that forced Indian formations to remain on the defensive. This analysis was critical in shifting the conversation from simple numbers of aircraft to the sophistication of the kill chain.

Similarly, Reuters reported extensively on the aftermath of the conflict, highlighting that global militaries”were studying the dogfight data. The very fact that Western air forces felt the need to analyze the engagement suggests that the result was unexpected and doctrinally disruptive. If the clash had been a routine Indian victory, as per the pre-war conventional wisdom, it would have been filed away as business as usual. The scrutiny implies that the underdog’s tactics, and technology, had upended the established hierarchy.

Even French intelligence assessments, while attempting to mitigate the damage to the Rafale’s brand, indirectly confirmed the severity of the clash. Reports surfacing in late 2025 regarding a Chinese “disinformation campaign” were essentially damage control. By accusing Beijing of exaggerating the Rafale’s losses to sell the J-35, European agencies implicitly acknowledged that the J-10C had performed well enough to make such a narrative believable. You do not need a disinformation campaign to discredit a weapon system that performed flawlessly; you only need it when that system has been visibly challenged.

Perhaps the most telling evidence of the triumph is the post-conflict behavior described in the document. Triumphs in modern warfare are rarely measured just by wreckage on the ground but by the geopolitical acceleration that follows. The report notes that in June 2025, immediately following the clash, China offered Pakistan the J-35 fifth-generation fighter and KJ-500 AWACS.

China does not export its most sensitive stealth technology to nations that lose wars or compromise its hardware. The release of the J-35 to Pakistan is a direct acknowledgement by Beijing that the PAF is a capable custodian of top-tier technology. The conventional deterrence equation in the subcontinent has been fundamentally rewritten.