The Spillover of Chaos: Afghanistan’s Instability and Its Regional Fallout

The specter of violence in Afghanistan has once again spilled beyond its borders, with devastating consequences for the region. On February 28, 2025, a suicide bomber targeted one of Pakistan’s most prominent religious figures, Moulana Hamid ul Haq, son of the late Moulana Sami ul Haq, at his seminary, leading to his tragic demise.

Fingers have been pointed toward the Islamic State Khorasan Province (ISKP), a group that has long employed such deadly tactics. For analysts, this is not just another high-profile assassination but a symptom of a deeper crisis—the resurgence of terrorism and lawlessness taking root in Afghanistan.

ISKP’s Resurgence: A Persistent Threat

Despite the Afghan interim government’s mid-2024 claims of eliminating ISKP, the reality tells a different story. The group remains active and potent, with its operational footprint expanding. In the past two years alone, ISKP has orchestrated a series of high-casualty attacks inside Afghanistan, including:

• The Kunduz bombing last month, which claimed the lives of approximately 40 Taliban officials.
• The assassination of prominent figures such as Sheikh Rahimullah Haqqani (2022), Haji Khalil Haqqani (2024), Arsala Kharoti (2025), and now, Moulana Hamid ul Haq (2025).

These attacks underscore ISKP’s ability to recalibrate, strike at will, and maintain stronghold pockets inside Afghanistan, despite the Taliban’s assurances of security.

Also See: Afghanistan: Terror Hub or Global Chessboard

Pakistan’s Counterterrorism Efforts and the Afghan Dilemma

Pakistan, too, has faced the brunt of this evolving threat. Just weeks ago, security forces dismantled a high-profile ISIS network operating from Balochistan, signaling the growing reach of transnational militant groups. Meanwhile, the Taliban’s inability to completely neutralize ISKP has been attributed to internal fissures within its leadership, particularly between the Kandahar faction and the Haqqani network.

Mullah Haibatullah Akhundzada’s insistence on hardline governance—both on the Afghan people and within the Taliban’s ranks—has fueled internal discord. A striking pattern has emerged: ISKP’s most high-profile targets have consistently belonged to the Haqqani network.

Analysts suggest that economic decline, monopolization of key sectors by the Kandahar faction, and preferential treatment toward individuals from the Noorzai tribe over other Taliban factions have reignited old divisions. The historic rivalry between Loya Paktia and Loya Kandahar is once again shaping political and security dynamics, exposing deeper fractures within the Taliban regime.

Regional Impact: A Growing Security Challenge

The instability in Afghanistan has sent shockwaves through the region, with Pakistan bearing the brunt. A United Nations Security Council (UNSC) report indicates that Pakistan has endured 600 attacks over the past four years from militant outfits like the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA), and Majeed Brigade (MB)—a troubling indicator of Afghanistan’s continued role as a militant hub.

Additionally, Al-Qaeda’s resurgence and ISKP’s growing influence pose a direct threat to regional stability. Analysts warn that polarizing policies in Afghanistan are pushing disillusioned northern populations toward ISKP, challenging the Taliban’s claims of complete territorial control.

Taliban 2.0: A Government Losing Its Grip?

While some remain hopeful that the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan (IEA) will eventually assert full control, emerging reports paint a starkly different picture. Ministerial resignations, targeted killings of key figures, growing youth discontent, and the marginalization of women have raised serious concerns about the Taliban’s governance.

For Afghan policymakers and regional stakeholders, the time for urgent intervention is now. If left unaddressed, the ongoing crisis could further destabilize South Asia, deepening the cycle of extremism and violence that has plagued the region for decades.

SAT Commentaries’ are social media threads by various authors, reproduced here for website use. Views are their own.