The specter of violence in Afghanistan has once again spilled beyond its borders, with devastating consequences for the region. On February 28, 2025, a suicide bomber targeted one of Pakistan’s most prominent religious figures, Moulana Hamid ul Haq, son of the late Moulana Sami ul Haq, at his seminary, leading to his tragic demise.
Fingers have been pointed toward the Islamic State Khorasan Province (ISKP), a group that has long employed such deadly tactics. For analysts, this is not just another high-profile assassination but a symptom of a deeper crisis—the resurgence of terrorism and lawlessness taking root in Afghanistan.
ISKP’s Resurgence: A Persistent Threat
Despite the Afghan interim government’s mid-2024 claims of eliminating ISKP, the reality tells a different story. The group remains active and potent, with its operational footprint expanding. In the past two years alone, ISKP has orchestrated a series of high-casualty attacks inside Afghanistan, including:
- The Kunduz bombing last month, which claimed the lives of approximately 40 Taliban officials.
- The assassination of prominent figures such as Sheikh Rahimullah Haqqani (2022), Haji Khalil Haqqani (2024), Arsala Kharoti (2025), and now, Moulana Hamid ul Haq (2025).
These attacks underscore ISKP’s ability to recalibrate, strike at will, and maintain stronghold pockets inside Afghanistan, despite the Taliban’s assurances of security.
Also See: Afghanistan: Terror Hub or Global Chessboard
Pakistan’s Counterterrorism Efforts and the Afghan Dilemma
Pakistan, too, has faced the brunt of this evolving threat. Just weeks ago, security forces dismantled a high-profile ISIS network operating from Balochistan, signaling the growing reach of transnational militant groups. Meanwhile, the Taliban’s inability to completely neutralize ISKP has been attributed to internal fissures within its leadership, particularly between the Kandahar faction and the Haqqani network.
Mullah Haibatullah Akhundzada’s insistence on hardline governance—both on the Afghan people and within the Taliban’s ranks—has fueled internal discord. A striking pattern has emerged: ISKP’s most high-profile targets have consistently belonged to the Haqqani network.
Analysts suggest that economic decline, monopolization of key sectors by the Kandahar faction, and preferential treatment toward individuals from the Noorzai tribe over other Taliban factions have reignited old divisions. The historic rivalry between Loya Paktia and Loya Kandahar is once again shaping political and security dynamics, exposing deeper fractures within the Taliban regime.
Regional Impact: A Growing Security Challenge
The instability in Afghanistan has sent shockwaves through the region, with Pakistan bearing the brunt. A United Nations Security Council (UNSC) report indicates that Pakistan has endured 600 attacks over the past four years from militant outfits like the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA), and Majeed Brigade (MB)—a troubling indicator of Afghanistan’s continued role as a militant hub.
Additionally, Al-Qaeda’s resurgence and ISKP’s growing influence pose a direct threat to regional stability. Analysts warn that polarizing policies in Afghanistan are pushing disillusioned northern populations toward ISKP, challenging the Taliban’s claims of complete territorial control.
Taliban 2.0: A Government Losing Its Grip?
While some remain hopeful that the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan (IEA) will eventually assert full control, emerging reports paint a starkly different picture. Ministerial resignations, targeted killings of key figures, growing youth discontent, and the marginalization of women have raised serious concerns about the Taliban’s governance.
For Afghan policymakers and regional stakeholders, the time for urgent intervention is now. If left unaddressed, the ongoing crisis could further destabilize South Asia, deepening the cycle of extremism and violence that has plagued the region for decades.
SAT Commentaries’ are social media threads by various authors, reproduced here for website use. Views are their own.
The Spillover of Chaos: Afghanistan’s Instability and Its Regional Fallout
The specter of violence in Afghanistan has once again spilled beyond its borders, with devastating consequences for the region. On February 28, 2025, a suicide bomber targeted one of Pakistan’s most prominent religious figures, Moulana Hamid ul Haq, son of the late Moulana Sami ul Haq, at his seminary, leading to his tragic demise.
Fingers have been pointed toward the Islamic State Khorasan Province (ISKP), a group that has long employed such deadly tactics. For analysts, this is not just another high-profile assassination but a symptom of a deeper crisis—the resurgence of terrorism and lawlessness taking root in Afghanistan.
ISKP’s Resurgence: A Persistent Threat
Despite the Afghan interim government’s mid-2024 claims of eliminating ISKP, the reality tells a different story. The group remains active and potent, with its operational footprint expanding. In the past two years alone, ISKP has orchestrated a series of high-casualty attacks inside Afghanistan, including:
These attacks underscore ISKP’s ability to recalibrate, strike at will, and maintain stronghold pockets inside Afghanistan, despite the Taliban’s assurances of security.
Also See: Afghanistan: Terror Hub or Global Chessboard
Pakistan’s Counterterrorism Efforts and the Afghan Dilemma
Pakistan, too, has faced the brunt of this evolving threat. Just weeks ago, security forces dismantled a high-profile ISIS network operating from Balochistan, signaling the growing reach of transnational militant groups. Meanwhile, the Taliban’s inability to completely neutralize ISKP has been attributed to internal fissures within its leadership, particularly between the Kandahar faction and the Haqqani network.
Mullah Haibatullah Akhundzada’s insistence on hardline governance—both on the Afghan people and within the Taliban’s ranks—has fueled internal discord. A striking pattern has emerged: ISKP’s most high-profile targets have consistently belonged to the Haqqani network.
Analysts suggest that economic decline, monopolization of key sectors by the Kandahar faction, and preferential treatment toward individuals from the Noorzai tribe over other Taliban factions have reignited old divisions. The historic rivalry between Loya Paktia and Loya Kandahar is once again shaping political and security dynamics, exposing deeper fractures within the Taliban regime.
Regional Impact: A Growing Security Challenge
The instability in Afghanistan has sent shockwaves through the region, with Pakistan bearing the brunt. A United Nations Security Council (UNSC) report indicates that Pakistan has endured 600 attacks over the past four years from militant outfits like the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA), and Majeed Brigade (MB)—a troubling indicator of Afghanistan’s continued role as a militant hub.
Additionally, Al-Qaeda’s resurgence and ISKP’s growing influence pose a direct threat to regional stability. Analysts warn that polarizing policies in Afghanistan are pushing disillusioned northern populations toward ISKP, challenging the Taliban’s claims of complete territorial control.
Taliban 2.0: A Government Losing Its Grip?
While some remain hopeful that the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan (IEA) will eventually assert full control, emerging reports paint a starkly different picture. Ministerial resignations, targeted killings of key figures, growing youth discontent, and the marginalization of women have raised serious concerns about the Taliban’s governance.
For Afghan policymakers and regional stakeholders, the time for urgent intervention is now. If left unaddressed, the ongoing crisis could further destabilize South Asia, deepening the cycle of extremism and violence that has plagued the region for decades.
SAT Commentaries’ are social media threads by various authors, reproduced here for website use. Views are their own.
SAT Commentary
SAT Commentary
SAT Commentaries, a collection of insightful social media threads on current events and social issues, featuring diverse perspectives from various authors.
Recent
Framing the Enemy: Modi, Bollywood and the Battle of Narratives
Bollywood has become a powerful weapon in India’s information warfare, reshaping narratives on Pakistan, Kashmir, and Islam through propaganda-driven blockbusters. Under Modi’s BJP, cinema is being used to rewrite history, fuel nationalism, and normalize Islamophobia, raising serious concerns for regional peace and stability.
Cloud Burst and Calamities: Exploring Pakistan’s New Environmental Reality
Pakistan is facing a new environmental reality where floods, glacier melts, and devastating cloudbursts are no longer rare but routine. Despite contributing less than 1% of global emissions, the country bears the brunt of climate change, with fragile infrastructure and limited resources leaving millions vulnerable to recurring disasters.
The Illusion of the Street: Why Uprisings Rarely Deliver Real Change
From the Arab Spring to Sri Lanka’s Aragalaya, street revolutions have ignited extraordinary hope, toppling entrenched rulers and inspiring global headlines. But history shows a harsher truth: these uprisings rarely deliver the transformation they promise. Once the euphoria fades, fractured coalitions give way to elite capture, military takeovers, or outright collapse. Without resilient institutions, the energy of the streets is easily co-opted, leaving ordinary citizens facing the same injustices under new faces.
Multilateralism in Crisis: Pakistan’s Call for Collective Islamic Security
In an interview with Al Jazeera, Pakistan’s Deputy PM Ishaq Dar declared the UN system broken and urged the Muslim world to move from words to action. He called for an Islamic security roadmap, highlighted Pakistan’s nuclear deterrence, and issued red lines on India and Afghanistan.
The Unholy War: Religious Consensus Against Insurgency in Pakistan
For two decades, Pakistan has endured TTP-led violence. Now, a rare consensus among Deobandi, Barelvi, and Ahl-e-Hadith scholars delegitimizes the insurgency and redefines jihad versus rebellion.