The Revival of Ethnic Engineering in Northern Afghanistan

The reported attack by Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) militants on a village in Takhar Province is not an isolated incident of militancy, it is a flashpoint in a centuries-long history of ethnic and territorial contestation in northern Afghanistan. Takhar, a province with a predominantly Tajik population, has increasingly become a theater where the lines between counter-insurgency and ethnic cleansing blur. The displacement of ancestral communities in this region points to a revitalized strategy of internal colonization, raising critical questions about the relationship between the TTP and the Afghan Taliban (IEA).

To understand the current crisis, one must look back to the reign of Amir Abdur Rahman Khan (1880–1901). His Iron policy established the precedent of settlers, where thousands of Pashtun families from the south were relocated to the north, specifically to Tajik, Uzbek, and Hazara territories. This was a deliberate effort to create a loyalist buffer against potential northern rebellions and to dilute the demographic dominance of non-Pashtun ethnicities. Data from historical archives suggest that between 1885 and 1895 alone, over 10,000 Pashtun families were moved to the northern frontiers. This tradition was maintained through various regimes, including the Musahiban dynasty and the first Taliban era (1996–2001), as documented in studies on ethnic engineering in Afghanistan. The current displacement in Takhar is a continuation of this settler-colonial logic, where the displacement of Tajiks serves to secure the northern borders for a Pashtun-centric authority.

The presence of the TTP in Takhar presents a complex dilemma. There are two primary analytical frameworks for understanding their role. First, the Afghan Taliban may be utilizing the TTP as a proxy to carry out the dirty work of ethnic cleansing. By allowing or directing the TTP to occupy Tajik lands, the Kabul leadership can claim plausible deniability regarding human rights abuses while achieving the strategic goal of settling armed Pashtun loyalists in the north. This effectively transforms the TTP from a cross-border insurgent group into a domestic instrument of demographic engineering, a shift noted by security analysts monitoring TTP movements. Conversely, it is possible that TTP elements are acting autonomously, emboldened by their sanctuary in Afghanistan. If the IEA is unable to restrain these militants, it signals a breakdown in the chain of command. However, given the centralized nature of the Taliban’s current intelligence and security apparatus, the autonomous actor theory is increasingly difficult to sustain, especially when the victims are consistently from non-Pashtun ethnic groups.

The human and ethnic cost of this shift is profound. Takhar is roughly 45% to 50% Tajik, with significant Uzbek and Hazara minorities. Reports from international monitors and local activists indicate that since 2021, hundreds of families have been forced to flee their homes in districts like Khwaja Bahauddin and Darqad. The TTP’s occupation of these lands is often accompanied by the seizure of livestock and agricultural resources, which are the lifelines of these rural communities. The terrorizing of these villages serves a dual purpose: it removes the non-loyal population and provides a territorial base for the TTP. For the Tajik residents, this is not just a loss of property, it is the destruction of an ancestral geography. When families are uprooted from lands they have farmed for generations, the social fabric of the community is irreparably torn, as highlighted in reports on forced evictions in northern Afghanistan.

Ultimately, the situation in Takhar confirms that the ethnic problem in Afghanistan remains unresolved and is, in fact, intensifying under the current regime. The influx of TTP militants into northern Tajik areas suggests a strategic realignment. Whether the Afghan Taliban are actively orchestrating this or simply facilitating it through negligence, the outcome is the same: a systematic campaign of displacement that mirrors the 19th-century policies of the central government. Without international pressure and a mechanism for the protection of ethnic minorities, the northern provinces risk becoming a permanent battleground for demographic dominance. The displacement in Takhar is a warning sign that the Pashtunization of the north is no longer a historical footnote, but an active, ongoing project of the 21st century.