The Indian Ocean Battle No One’s Talking About!

In the heart of the world’s oceans lies a vast expanse that few truly comprehend. The Indian Ocean, often overshadowed by its Atlantic and Pacific counterparts, is quietly becoming the frontline of a high-stakes geopolitical struggle. While the eyes of the world focus elsewhere, a strategic contest for dominance is unfolding beneath the surface. Global superpowers are positioning themselves for what could be the defining battle of our era.

Covering approximately 27 percent of the Earth’s water surface, the Indian Ocean is the third largest ocean. It’s surrounded by Asia, Africa, Australia, and Antarctic Ocean, and connects the Pacific Ocean to the Mediterranean Sea. The trade routes transiting through Indian Ocean are vital for commercial shipping and have strategic and military implications. The region recorded a total trade volume of $6.17 trillion, in 2020. Chokepoints such as the Strait of Hormuz, Bab-el-Mandeb, Horn of Africa, Suez Canal, and Malacca Strait serve as crucial transit nodes for global trade.

Strategic Significance of the Indian Ocean

In the contemporary world, shaped by the China-U.S. power struggle, control over the Indian Ocean and its crucial trade routes has gained significant strategic importance. China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) exemplifies this shift. Through the BRI, Beijing is building infrastructure and gradually expanding its presence in the Indian Ocean Region (IOR). To protect its economic interests in the Indian Ocean, China is gradually increasing its naval capabilities and outreach. Chinese military base in Djibouti (2017) exemplifies Beijing’s increasing focus in securing sea routes through military means.

Additionally, the People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) is rapidly increasing its size. It has already become the largest navy in terms of numerical vessel count. A Pentagon report titled “Military and Security Developments Involving the People’s Republic of China (2023)” forecasts that the PLAN aims to expand its fleet to 400 warships by 2025. This is up from its current fleet of 340 warships. Consequently, Washington perceives China’s rapid naval modernization as a threat to its naval hegemony, especially in the Indo-Pacific Ocean Region.

The United States Response and Strategic Alliances

The United States is undertaking measures to contain Beijing’s growing influence in the Indo-Pacific Region. United States already has a robust presence in IOR and has its fifth naval fleet, USNAVCENT, stationed in Bahrain. Moreover, key strategic bases, like Diego Garcia, have allowed the United States to consolidate its power projection capability in the entire IOR. Besides, Washington is forming new alliances in the region.

Quad (2007), a strategic forum consisting of the United States, Japan, India, and Australia, aims to enhance maritime security. But according to Beijing, this forum is directed to contain rising China through collaborative efforts of like-minded powers. The members of this coalition also conduct the annual Malabar Exercise which represents the military axis of this multilateral  platform.

Furthermore, AUKUS is a trilateral strategic pact among Australia, the United Kingdom, and the U.S. It was signed in September 2021. The pact aims to enhance defense and security cooperation between the three nations. The most prominent aspect of AUKUS is the $368 billion deal to provide a nuclear-powered attack submarine (SSN) to the Royal Australian Navy (RAN). Beyond the risk of accelerated nuclear proliferation in the region, this agreement could motivate other nations to acquire similar capability. For instance, currently, India is focusing on acquiring French naval nuclear propulsion technology. This presents challenges related to the nuclear arms race as well as, to the safety of nuclear assets. 

As the U.S. and its allies fortify their positions, another key player in the region is asserting its dominance.

India’s Strategy in the Indian Ocean

Under Modi’s leadership, India has showcased a more assertive posture in the Indian Ocean. This posturing aligns with India’s ambitions to become a regional hegemon and act as a net-security provider in the Indian Ocean Region. Similarly, the U.S. and India share common interests in containing the growing Chinese influence in the Indian Ocean. In 2016, the U.S. designated India as a major defense partner. This designation aims to broaden American influence by facilitating increased bilateral defense trade, technology transfer, and cooperation on various security issues in the IOR.

According to U.S. and Indian security pundits, Beijing is strategically encircling India by developing an economic and naval presence in the Indian Ocean. This presence extends from mainland China to the Horn of Africa through various military and commercial installations. This strategy is unofficially termed “The String of Pearls.” It aims to build a network of maritime infrastructure at key strategic locations in the Indian Ocean, including Bab el Mandeb, the Hormuz Strait, and the Lombok Strait. Additionally, China is extending diplomatic and commercial support to regional maritime nations.

The New Delhi administration fears that Chinese capital deployment in Chabahar port and Gwadar port could potentially hinder India’s maritime trade in the region. Pakistan holds an extremely important geostrategic position and intends to enhance its geopolitical standpoint in the Indian Ocean through the China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) project. Since Pakistan is geographically close to the Strait of Hormuz, a conceivable flash point, the unhindered trade flow is a prime concern for Pakistan. 

India’s Strategic Response and Alliances

To counter this threat perception, New Delhi has also launched a counter strategy, unofficially called ‘Necklace of Diamonds’. The Necklace of Diamonds strategy comprises establishment of Indian Naval bases in Singapore, Indonesia, Iran, Oman and Seychelles which will significantly expand India’s naval outreach. Additionally, India has focused its foreign policy towards Africa, South-East Asia in order to out-compete China in the IOR.

Beside developing naval infrastructure in surrounding regions, New Delhi is also establishing robust military cooperation with Washington by signing several bilateral strategic agreements. In 2016, the U.S. and India signed Logistics Exchange Memorandum of Agreement (LEMOA) for logistics access, allowing port calls, refueling and joint military exercises. Additionally, Communications, Compatibility and Security Agreements (COMCASA) was signed in 2018 and has ensured intelligence interoperability and intelligence exchange. Similarly, in 2020, Basic Exchange and Cooperation Agreement (BECA) deepened the partnership by facilitating geo-spatial intelligence and aeronautical data. These agreements, however, are compromising the balance of power in the region. The intensification of security dilemmas has launched a new arms race in the region. Moreover, if this arms race gets aggravated, the situation might lead to conflict between regional and extra-regional IOR stakeholders. 

Key Takeaways on Strategic Developments

In brief five key takeaways can be highlighted as far as contemporary strategic developments in the Indian Ocean are concerned. First, the China-U.S. power struggle is reshaping the geopolitical order. It has led to increased militarization and aggressive posturing by both nations. On a global scale, this competition has polarized the countries, forcing them to find delicate balance between both powers.

Second, collaborative arrangements like Quad has brought together the United States, Japan, India, and Australia for securing collective interests like China’s containment. However, it’s unlikely that Quad will evolve into a NATO replica due to inherent compatibility in political and military domains, the shortfall in the geographical proximity among the stakeholders, and absence of a credible legislative framework.

Third, security pacts like AUKUS can set a trend of exploiting the loop holes in the nuclear non-proliferation regime. This agreement has the potential to motivate other nations to gain nuclear capabilities which would potentially make not only the Indian Ocean but the entire world more nuclearized.

Fourth, enhanced U.S.-Indian cooperation and India’s assertive naval build-up can disturb the Indo-Pak balance of power. This development will compel Pakistan to modernize and expand its naval capabilities even further. Consequently, it will lead to naval arms race between India and Pakistan which can compromise regional strategic stability of the entire region.

And finally, any crisis in the Indian Ocean can potentially disrupt key SLOCs passing through the region. The Indian Ocean stands as a critical theatre in a multipolar world where the pursuits of gaining control over vital trade chokepoints like Strait of Hormuz and Bab el Mandeb have attained significant security and strategic significance. The disruption can have global consequences as it can undermine the global economy with severe spill-over impact.

Tensions in the Indian Ocean

The intensifying China-U.S. power struggle in the Indo-Pacific region, particularly Indian Ocean, will intensify the regional security dilemma, which will accelerate naval arms race involving global as well as regional powers. Emerging alliances, like Quad and AUKUS can jeopardize the balance of power. The situation might lead to tensions between regional and extra-regional IOR stakeholders. These tensions, if not mitigated through confidence building measures like arms control and non-proliferation, could potentially escalate into full scale conflict with global ramifications.

As the waves of the Indian Ocean continue their eternal rhythm, the geopolitical currents beneath remain anything but steady. The contest for control over these waters, vital to the world’s commerce and security, is intensifying. Looking ahead, with alliances being forged, naval fleets expanding, and strategic outposts solidifying, the Indian Ocean is no longer just a passageway for trade—it’s the fulcrum upon which the balance of global power may pivot. Indeed, in the coming years, the world will watch as this ocean, once a silent witness to history, becomes its most active stage.

The views expressed in this article are the author’s own. They do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of the South Asia Times.