Friday the 13th is considered a day of fear in Western culture, but it became a fearful day in reality for the Middle East and the world. On June 13th, during the early hours, Israel attacked Iran through air strikes targeting military and nuclear sites in the capital, Tehran, and other cities. This resulted in the deaths of over 70 people, including military commanders, high-ranking scientists, and civilians. Iran then vowed retaliation, and the world reacted with shock and calls for restraint. Subsequently, Iran attacked Israel the following night with missiles, targeting important cities like Tel Aviv. Although sudden, this action by Israel was timely and calculated, as efforts by the US and Iran to reach a nuclear deal were underway and scheduled for discussion. Iran declined participation after the Israeli attack, but Trump insisted on making a deal to avoid further loss.
After a tumultuous tit-for-tat escalation by both Iran and Israel, targeting each other’s important cities and sites for days, the final blow came when the US attacked Iran’s nuclear sites with bunker buster bombs. This was answered by Iran attacking the US base in Qatar. The conflict was taking a turn for the worse, but amidst it, mediation attempts were also ongoing through different regions and countries. Finally, a ceasefire was announced by the US, which both countries accepted.
It was a moment of relief, although this event further threatened the 21st century’s world order and international cooperation. Gulf countries and Iran’s neighboring countries were equally perplexed by this situation due to the dilemma of Muslim solidarity amid national security. Pakistan was no exception to this, but in actuality, it had more reasons than any other country to be on high alert.
Pakistan’s Geopolitical Dilemma
Pakistan shares a strong relationship with its southwestern neighbor, Iran, driven by strategic interests and a shared Muslim heritage. Pakistan, a Muslim-majority country, possesses a powerful military, although its economic and social influence is less dominant. As the world’s only Muslim nuclear state, it holds a unique position among Muslim countries and as a representative among powerful nations. Pakistan has also been a victim of terrorism, non-state actors’ proxy wars, and maneuvers by its rival eastern neighbor, India, with which it recently experienced a deadly standoff.
On the other hand, Pakistan does not recognize Israel and therefore has no official diplomatic relations with it. The main factor contributing to this stance is the Palestine issue, which has recently worsened due to Israel’s heinous actions in Gaza. Pakistan has consistently supported the Palestinian cause, using every platform to highlight the plight of the Palestinian people and contribute aid, especially now. Pakistan advocates for a two-state solution and also connects this case with its Kashmir issue, a long-standing point of contention between Pakistan and India. The strong bilateral relations between India and Israel further complicate this entire situation. Therefore, some points need to be considered and acted upon by Pakistan after the Iran-Israel faceoff.
Critical Considerations for Pakistan
First, Israel’s animosity towards Pakistan and its close ties with India could lead to aggressive acts targeting Pakistan. India might seize this as an opportunity to pressure Pakistan from two sides, especially given its declaration that the recent ceasefire is not permanent and the water issue remains unresolved. Increased vigilance through air defense systems and activation of aerial equipment are necessary to deter any aggression from an Israel-India alliance.
Second, there is a need for tight security with proper checks and balances on people entering and exiting Pakistan through its borders with Iran, as well as via aerial and maritime routes. This is to avoid any political or social mishaps. India could exploit such a situation to target Pakistan by portraying it as providing people or resources to Iran for nuclear purposes. Indian media has already run a campaign to malign Pakistan’s image amidst this conflict.
Third, Pakistan must strictly adhere to laws governing nuclear sites and weapons. India could be inspired by this conflict, similar to how Netanyahu has justified deterring Iran from becoming a nuclear state, arguing it threatens Israel’s existence and promotes terrorism. Similar statements have been made by India in the past.
Fourth, to peacefully contain Pakistani sentiments, state departments and media in Pakistan need to carefully observe disinformation and misinformation. Any radical, emotion-based effort to ally with Iran, which is still reeling from significant losses could create a domestic rift within Pakistan, potentially opening a ground for non-state actors to create havoc. Therefore, it is crucial to avoid igniting religious or nationalist passions without considering political and international protocols.
Fifth, Pakistan should maintain a neutral and steady approach. It may face domestic pressure from its Muslim majority to retaliate militarily against Israel, or international pressure from other Muslim countries. Conversely, there could be pressure from the US, especially through the Abraham Accords, to recognize Israel. Both scenarios could lead to disaster, as Pakistan might face internal turmoil and strain relations with Muslim countries, impacting its global image. Furthermore, the US, a powerful state with significant influence in Pakistan’s affairs, particularly in brokering the current ceasefire, strongly supports Israel. Such decisions could have serious consequences for Pakistan’s already unstable environment.
Sixth, Pakistan should avoid allowing its land for permanent military or economic bases, as this could jeopardize its security due to potential conflicts between other countries. For instance, Iran’s attack on the US base in Qatar and its warning to close the Strait of Hormuz have ushered in a new era of retaliatory politics. Situated between hostile nations like India and Afghanistan, and amidst the rivalry between anti-US Iran, the US, and China, Pakistan could face challenging situations if a conflict erupts or become vulnerable to the mischief of non-state actors.
Seventh, Pakistan ought to play a purely diplomatic role, balancing relations between Muslim states and the West while preserving its national interests and deterring aggression. Pakistan’s current focus should be on engaging in all possible platforms to promote negotiations and peace, an effort it is already undertaking but which needs further refinement to enhance dialogue and avoid confrontation. It should also leverage its good offices and international organizations to promote its vision, internal stability, and image as a responsible global actor.
The Path Forward
Pakistan faces both internal and international challenges, particularly the ongoing, albeit paused, belligerence from India. The increasing global uncertainty, due to shifts in international relations, signals an alarm for all, with the future prospect of a global catastrophe if not handled properly. Pakistan has already borne the brunt of international power politics and has strived hard to restore balance, which needs to be maintained at all costs. Pakistan is required to act rationally, in line with its current global position and the one it envisions maintaining.
The views expressed in this article are the author’s own. They do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of the South Asia Times.
