Jolani’s Vision for Syria: Reform or Extremism

In a recent BBC interview on December 19, the leader of Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), Ahmad al-Sharaa made a striking assertion: Syria will not follow the same path as Afghanistan under the Taliban’s rule. He promised a more inclusive approach, stating that Syria’s diversity would be respected and that the group’s laws would evolve under a constitution that would also provide space for women. Known by his nom de guerre, Abu Mohammed al-Jolani, Sharaa declared that Syria, exhausted by years of war, is no longer a threat to its neighbours or the West.  

But can Jolani be believed? On the one hand, he is hinting towards a pro-western and reformed vision; on the other hand, congratulatory messages from groups like the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) and the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan (IEA) hint towards a potential pan-Islamist message.

Can Jolani’s Vision for Syria Be Trusted? A Look at His Calls for Inclusivity

By distancing Syria’s future from Afghanistan’s Taliban-led model, Jolani positions himself as a leader who is both reformist and pragmatic. Jolani’s recent statements in the BBC interview are more than just a political message. This represents a strategic maneuver aimed at signalling to the West to secure tangible benefits. During the interview, he demanded the lifting of sanctions from Syria. “Now, after all that has happened, sanctions must be lifted because they were targeted at the old regime. The victim and the oppressor should not be treated in the same way,” he said. His plea comes against the backdrop of extensive sanctions imposed by the United States, Britain, the European Union, and others following Bashar al-Assad’s violent crackdown on pro-democracy protests in 2011, which spiralled into a devastating civil war. 

Currently, Syria is grappling with a dual layer of sanctions: one targeting the Syrian government, imposed in response to Bashar al-Assad’s regime during the civil war, and another aimed at Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) due to its historical affiliation with al-Qaeda.

Also See: The Fall of Assad: Syria’s Future in Crisis

Jolani’s Vision for Syria: Strategic Rebranding to Engage the West

HTS, formerly known as Nusra Front, served as al-Qaeda’s official branch in Syria until it formally severed ties in 2016. Despite this rebranding, the group remains under stringent sanctions, including those by the United Nations Security Council, which lists it alongside al-Qaeda and the Islamic State. These measures have subjected HTS to a global assets freeze and arms embargo for over a decade, further complicating Syria’s path to economic recovery and political normalization. However, Jolani’s promises of inclusivity, space for women, and constitutional governance seem designed to appeal to international audiences, particularly Western governments.  His overt approach, seeking dialogue with the West and advocating for the lifting of sanctions, suggests an effort to rebrand HTS as a legitimate governing entity. This contrasts sharply with the TTP and IEA, who have maintained a more opaque approach to engaging with regional and global stakeholders.

In parallel, United Nations Special Envoy for Syria Geir Pedersen highlighted the necessity of meaningful progress on an inclusive political transition to secure economic support for Syria. Speaking to the Security Council, Pedersen stated, “There is a clear international willingness to engage. The needs are immense and could only be addressed with broad support, including a smooth end to sanctions, appropriate action on designations too, and full reconstruction.”

US Diplomatic Delegation Engagement with HTS Leadership

This cautious optimism around Sharaa’s leadership is underscored by a significant development: for the first time since Assad’s fall, a senior delegation of US diplomats arrived in Syria on December 20. 

The diplomatic team, led by Barbara Leaf and Daniel Rubinstein, aims to engage directly with the new leadership of HTS and discuss Syria’s future. This mission, which includes meeting with civil society representatives and activists, signals a potential shift in US policy, moving from decades of isolation to a more engaged approach, albeit cautiously. The delegation will also seek information on missing Americans, including journalist Austin Tice, highlighting the complex, multi-layered nature of Syria’s transition.

The United States’ engagement, however, remains cautious. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken has emphasized that it is too early to assess Sharaa’s sincerity and that any sanctions relief will depend on actions, not rhetoric. Blinken’s acknowledgment that replacing one dictator with another is a real possibility reflects the deep scepticism around Sharaa’s ability to transform his group from an al-Qaeda-linked organization into a legitimate, representative government. Yet, with Syria’s war has created a migration crisis that rocked Western politics, Blinken also noted that the international community must act to steer the country toward a more positive trajectory.

International Reactions to Jolani’s Vision for Syria and Its Potential Impacts

HTS’s government in Syria has received mixed responses from different state and non-state actors across the globe.  The United States, long aspiring for regime change in Damascus, witnessed a long-awaited transformation, while Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu hailed the fall of Bashar al-Assad as a “historic day.” Conversely, Russia mourns the loss of a critical Arab ally, and Iran faces the collapse of a central pillar of its ‘Axis of Resistance.’

Pan-Islamist Messaging: A Signal from Jihadist Organizations

As far as Jihadist and militant organizations are concerned, they have shown optimism towards HTS’s rule, except for Hezbollah and ISIS.  Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) commended the Syrian people’s “aspirations for freedom and justice” and expressed hope that a post-Assad Syria would continue its pivotal role in supporting Palestinian causes. Similarly, the Afghan Interim Government became the first state-like entity to officially recognize HTS, issuing a statement envisioning a “sovereign and service-oriented Islamic government” that fosters unity and equality. The Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) framed HTS’s success as a symbolic victory for oppressed nations, emphasizing the importance of perseverance and proactive measures to address grievances.  Meanwhile, branches of the Muslim Brotherhood lauded HTS’s rise, crediting the Syrian people with overthrowing the Assad regime and aligning the development with their vision of Islamic governance. 

Al-Qaeda affiliates expressed support for HTS, reflecting ideological alignment despite past splits, while the Islamic State (IS) harshly criticized the group, accusing it of betraying jihad and collaborating with enemies. 

In contrast to Hamas’s positive response to HTS, Hezbollah, a staunch supporter of Assad, issued a grim statement, describing HTS’s ascendancy as a “major, dangerous, and new transformation.” Over the past year, Hezbollah has redeployed its forces to Lebanon to confront Israel, a move that weakened Syrian government defences.

The Role of Global Actors in Supporting or Undermining Jolani’s Vision for Syria

Assad’s departure provides an opportunity for Syria and the West to collaboratively pursue a peaceful political transition. Syrians now have a chance to rebuild their nation, free from the shackles of repression and foreign interference. For the United States and its allies, this is a moment to redefine their role in the Middle East, supporting reconstruction and stability rather than perpetuating conflict. 

Equally crucial is the need for external actors to respect Syria’s sovereignty. Actions such as Israel’s occupation of the Golan Heights and ongoing military strikes by Tel Aviv and the U.S. must cease to avoid further destabilization. A unified commitment from all stakeholders is essential for Syria to rebuild and reclaim its sovereignty.

The ultimate goal should be the establishment of a democratic state where Syria’s diverse religious, ethnic, and sectarian groups can coexist peacefully. However, there are genuine risks of rival factions descending into power struggles. In a worst-case scenario, extremist sectarian factions could seize power, succeeding where the Islamic State failed, with devastating consequences for the region and the world.