Gaza, Kashmir, and Damascus: The Cost of Conflict

On December 10, 2024, International Human Rights Day, the Middle East and South Asia highlight the ongoing global struggle to uphold human dignity and justice. The devastation in Gaza and the enduring Kashmir crisis serve as stark reminders of unresolved conflicts. Additionally, India’s transnational repression against dissenters abroad underscores the urgent need for accountability. Together, these issues call for immediate international action. Amidst this backdrop, the Fall of Damascus marks a pivotal shift in the Syrian conflict. It closes a chapter of authoritarian rule while opening the gates to new uncertainties.

Gaza War and the Palestinian Struggle

In Gaza, the humanitarian crisis has intensified over the past 14 months of conflict between Israel and Hamas.

The region faces significant destruction, scarcity of medical supplies, and displaced populations. Israeli blockades and restrictions exacerbate the humanitarian crisis, with aid workers continuing their efforts despite the dangers, including a high death rate among them.

The International Federation of Journalists reports that 104 journalists have been killed worldwide in 2024. Over half of these casualties occurred in Gaza, highlighting the perilous conditions for media personnel in conflict zones.

Meanwhile, the Biden administration is collaborating closely with officials from the incoming administration. Their goal is to reach a ceasefire and finalize a hostage deal to halt the war in Gaza. They aim to achieve this before the presidential inauguration on January 20.

Also See: The Fall of Assad: Syria’s Future in Crisis

The Kashmir Crisis and India’s Transnational Repression

In Indian-occupied Jammu and Kashmir (IIOJK), one of the most militarized zones on Earth, millions remain trapped under oppressive rule. Since August 5, 2019, when India revoked Kashmir’s special status, reports of extrajudicial killings, enforced disappearances, and mass detentions have surged. The region also faces environmental challenges. There is a concerning decline in water levels across its rivers, springs, and other water bodies due to ongoing dry spells and insufficient precipitation. This decline is impacting drinking water, irrigation, and the overall ecosystem.

Beyond Kashmir, India’s practice of targeting dissidents, including Sikh community and Kashmiris, globally through transnational repression—spanning surveillance, harassment, and coercion—continues to draw international condemnation.

The United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights has urged states to have “zero tolerance” for transnational repression, highlighting the global concern over such practices.

Syria’s Fall of Damascus: A New Chapter Begins

Just two days before Human Rights Day, on December 8, 2024, Syrian opposition forces captured Damascus, ending Bashar al-Assad’s 13-year reign. Assad resigned and left Syria, confirmed by Russia, his key ally. What it holds for regional powers and global world order remains unpredictable. While Middle Eastern politics have long been marked by unpredictability, Assad’s downfall stands as the latest chapter in the region’s tumultuous history, signaling both hopes for change and uncertainty about the future.

Humanitarian Cost of the Syrian Civil War and the Fall of Damascus

The Syrian civil war erupted during the Arab Spring in 2011 as a movement against autocracy. However, it quickly spiraled into one of the deadliest conflicts of the 21st century.

The Assad regime’s brutal crackdown, supported by Iran and Russia, fueled extremism and contributed to the rise of the Islamic State. This conflict also triggered a historic refugee crisis, displacing millions of people.

On International Human Rights Day, it is imperative to reflect on the immense suffering endured by the Syrian people. The enduring need for justice and accountability remains crucial.

Over the past 13 years, the Syrian conflict has inflicted a staggering toll: over 300,000 lives lost, with some estimates suggesting the number could be twice as high. Nearly 100,000 people remain missing or forcibly disappeared, leaving families in prolonged anguish. Approximately 12 million Syrians—nearly half the population—are displaced, underscoring the devastating human cost of the war. The fall of Damascus, while symbolizing the end of Bashar al-Assad’s reign, opens a new chapter fraught with challenges, especially for those who have suffered detention, torture, and abuse under his regime.

Now with the fall of Damascuss, the return of tens of thousands who have endured detention, torture, and abuse adds further strain to an already shattered and dysfunctional society. These individuals, often bearing physical and psychological scars, face enormous challenges in reintegrating. Additionally, millions of refugees in Turkey and Jordan may return en masse, exacerbating the pressures on a fragile nation.

The Fall of Damascus marked a fragile Sunni unity. This shift exploited Russia’s focus on Ukraine and Assad’s weakening regime. However, the risk of infighting looms, which could potentially destabilize the region.

Demography and Geopolitical Divisions

Syria’s complex demography adds to these challenges. The country is home to over ten ethnic groups and diverse Sunni factions, including Ikhwanis, Ba’athists, Salafis, liberal nationalists, and Islamic nationalists. This diversity has deeply fragmented Syria’s socio-political fabric.

Historical legacies like the Sykes-Picot Agreement and independence from French rule in 1946 have further entrenched divisions, fueling proxy conflicts. Sunni factions receive backing from Gulf states and Turkey, while Twelver Shias and Alawites are supported by Russia and Iran.

Looting and Revelations Following the Fall of Damascus

The regime change was undertaken by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), a United Nations-designated terrorist organization. HTS operates under the leadership of Abu Mohammed al-Julani, a jihadist linked to al-Qaida and ISIS. He is also a wanted terrorist with a $10 million bounty on his head.

After assuming control in Damascus, HTS rebels freed regime prisoners. This included inmates from the notorious Sednaya jail – often referred to as the “human slaughterhouse.“

As prisoners were freed around Damascus, crowds stormed Bashar al-Assad’s abandoned mansions. They looted the properties and marveled at his wealth.

The opulent interiors revealed luxury furniture, designer goods, and rare cars, including a £1.5 million Ferrari. Videos captured people exploring rooms filled with high-end items, such as Dior and Hermès products. Looted items included a £36,500 Louis Vuitton suitcase.

In the Jaramana neighborhood of Damascus, some protesters toppled a statue of Bashar al-Assad’s father, former president Hafez al-Assad. The scene stood in stark contrast to the Assad family’s estimated £1.6 billion wealth, hidden in offshore accounts. The Assads enjoyed immense wealth through a patronage network that controlled Syria’s economy. Meanwhile, 70% of Syrians lived in poverty. According to the World Bank, one in four Syrians lived in extreme poverty.

While the fall of Damascus represents an end to Assad’s authoritarian rule, the rise of HTS—a group with a history of extremist violence and human rights abuses—raises concerns about the future governance of Syria.

Global Reactions to the Fall of Damascus: Strikes and Policies

UN Secretary-General António Guterres on Sunday, 8 December, commended the end of Syria’s “dictatorial regime” and urged the nation to prioritize rebuilding. After 14 years of brutal war and the fall of the dictatorial regime, the people of Syria now have a historic opportunity to forge a stable and peaceful future, Guterres stated.

Meanwhile, the United States launched strikes on Islamic State targets in central Syria, while Turkey targeted U.S.-backed Kurdish forces. The Pentagon announced that the U.S. will maintain a presence in eastern Syria to prevent the resurgence of the Islamic State. President-elect Donald Trump, on Sunday, December 8, claimed that Assad had “fled his country” after losing Russia’s support. On his X, Trump stated, “Assad is gone. His protector, Russia, led by Vladimir Putin, no longer wanted to protect him.”

Israel confirmed deploying forces into the buffer zone near the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights and conducting airstrikes on former regime sites, including those linked to chemical weapons. Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Saar stated that the strikes were intended to prevent chemical weapons and long-range rockets from reaching hostile actors, emphasizing, “Our only interest is the security of Israel and its citizens.”

Chemical Weapons Concerns Resurface After the Fall of Damascus

Concerns over the security of the former Assad regime’s chemical weapons have escalated. The Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW), a UN watchdog, urged Syrian authorities to ensure the safety of suspected stockpiles to avoid potential proliferation risks.

Syria joined the OPCW in 2013, following an alleged chemical gas attack near Damascus that killed over 1,400 people. However, the watchdog stated, “To date … Syria’s declaration of its chemical weapons program cannot be considered accurate or complete.”

Iran’s Regional Influence Weakens Amid the Fall of Damascus

Iran faces setbacks, with its embassy stormed in Damascus. Syria under Assad was crucial for connecting Iran to Hezbollah and transferring weapons to the group. Hezbollah, weakened by its war with Israel, faces an uncertain future. Airstrikes have targeted Iranian-backed Houthis in Yemen, and Tehran’s “Axis of Resistance,” including militias in Iraq and Hamas in Gaza, has suffered significant damage. This shift will be welcomed in Israel, which sees Iran as an existential threat. Iran announced it had swiftly established direct communication with the rebels who ousted Assad, aiming to “prevent a hostile trajectory” between the nations. Hours after Assad’s fall, Iran expressed confidence in maintaining ties with Damascus, emphasising a “far-sighted and wise approach” and advocating for the formation of an inclusive government representing all segments of Syrian society.

Russia Faces Strategic Uncertainty Following the Fall of Damascus

Russia’s influence wanes as it becomes overstretched by Ukraine, with the fall of Assad’s regime delivering a significant blow to its prestige. Since deploying troops in 2015, Russia sought to bolster Assad, assert global power, and challenge the West. Putin even declared “mission accomplished” during a 2017 visit to the Hmeimim air base. This effort secured 49-year leases for the Hmeimim airbase and Tartous naval base, granting strategic Mediterranean access and supporting military operations in Africa. However, the future of these bases in post-Assad Syria is now uncertain.

Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov emphasized steps to ensure their security, while reports suggest Syrian opposition leaders have agreed to protect Russian military assets. These bases remain crucial for Moscow, providing a warm water port at Tartous and a key staging post at Hmeimim for operations in Africa.

Turkey’s Interests in Post-Assad Syria After the Fall of Damascus

As far as Turkey is concerned, many believe Turkey tacitly supported the offensive, though it denies backing HTS despite supporting some Syrian rebels. President Erdogan had urged Assad to negotiate a diplomatic solution, potentially facilitating the return of over three million Syrian refugees in Turkey—a sensitive local issue. However, Assad refused. Turkey now eyes a post-Assad influence.

What’s Next for Syria?

While the post-Assad era remains shrouded in uncertainty, the realities of a fractured nation emerging from war and oppression demand immediate attention. Syria now stands at a crossroads, with the potential to either rebuild and heal or spiral into renewed chaos. International Human Rights Day, observed with solemn speeches and resolutions, invites reflection on whether these ideals truly shape global policies or merely serve as rhetorical counterpoints to realpolitik ambitions.

The irony is hard to miss: as nations preach the sanctity of human rights, their actions in power struggles—from Gaza’s humanitarian catastrophe to Kashmir’s cries for dignity—often reflect competing strategic priorities.

Syria’s plight is but just one piece of a a much larger puzzle of global conflicts. Will the international community rise to the occasion and champion governance, humanitarian aid, and peacebuilding in Syria, or will the post-Assad vacuum become yet another playground for competing powers?

Amid all the talk of reconstruction and rights, one must ask: who truly benefits when nations assert influence under the guise of humanitarian concerns? From Gaza’s relentless bombings to Kashmir’s systemic oppression, and now the seismic shift in Damascus, these are not just crises of regions—they are crises of conscience. Observances of human rights days, then, risk becoming hollow rituals if they fail to spur genuine accountability and transformative action.

The world watches as Syria writes its next chapter. But the lesson, if any, from Damascus, Gaza, or even Kashmir, is clear: the architecture of peace must rise on the ruins of war, not atop the rubble of broken promises. Or, as an observer quipped, “History has a sense of humor—it repeats itself, but only louder each time.”

SAT Editorial Desk

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South Asia Times

Gaza, Kashmir, and Damascus: The Cost of Conflict