COP29 and G20: Defining Global Cooperation Crisis

November 2024 finds the world at a haunting crossroads, where the cries of nature and humanity echo louder than ever as global leaders converge on two critical forums: COP29 in Azerbaijan and the G20 Summit in Brazil. Amid this backdrop, these forums offer platforms for addressing the intertwined crises of climate change, poverty, and geopolitical instability. Both events spotlight urgent issues like climate financing, poverty, and hunger. They also grapple with the shadows of the Russia-Ukraine war and the Gaza conflict. These two crises are emblematic of how geopolitical instability exacerbates global challenges.

From Pakistan’s “smog diplomacy” initiatives to address regional air pollution to Biden’s swan song on climate leadership amid Trump’s return to the global stage, November 2024 encapsulates a world caught between promises of sustainable progress and the harsh realities of division.

Wars and their economic engines—driven by oil, fossil fuels, and unchecked militarization—remain glaring contradictions to climate action. This war economy fuels global warming, consuming resources, polluting landscapes, and obstructing green transitions. Yet, these contradictions persist, dating back to the first COP in Berlin in 1995. The seeds of global climate cooperation were sown. Yet, the world’s addiction to oil and the profits of war remained largely unchallenged. The Gaza war continues to claim lives and displace thousands. Meanwhile, the Russia-Ukraine conflict drains resources. A pressing question persists: Can the world prioritize peace and sustainability over short-term geopolitical gains?

As leaders debate, the question lingers in the air like the toxic smog over Lahore and Delhi: can the humanity muster the will to transcend its divisions, dismantle its war economies, and act decisively to save both its people and the planet?

South Asia and South East Asia’s Escalating Climate Crisis

The climate crisis is particularly acute in South and Southeast Asia, where worsening air pollution and intensifying natural disasters underline the urgency of action. Super Typhoon Man-yi recently struck the Philippines, bringing the death toll from consecutive storms to at least eight. This marks the sixth major storm to hit the country in less than a month. In Pakistan and India, cities like Lahore and Delhi recorded hazardous smog levels, with Air Quality Index (AQI) readings exceeding 2,000.

Pakistan’s Stance at COP 29: A Call for Regional Cooperation

At COP29, Pakistan called for regional collaboration, inviting India for “smog diplomacy” to tackle shared environmental challenges.

As one of the most climate-affected nations, Pakistan also hosted two panel discussions. Senior justices led these discussions, emphasizing the judiciary’s role in advancing climate finance and justice for the Global South. This region disproportionately suffers from climate disasters despite its minimal contributions to global emissions.

Biden and Trump’s Influence on COP 29 and G20 Multilateral Dynamics

Adding to this complexity, United States President Joe Biden’s recent visit to the Amazon rainforest marked a significant symbolic commitment to combating climate change. Biden announced an additional $50 million for the Amazon Fund, emphasizing the need for safeguarding global ecological balance.

Biden added that, while he is leaving office in January, his administration has created a solid foundation of climate policy. This foundation can be made even stronger if the future administration chooses to do so. However, with his term ending in January, Biden’s climate legacy faces an uncertain future under Trump. Trump has already signaled plans to withdraw from the Paris Climate Accord and prioritize fossil fuel production. His recent appointment of Chris Wright, a climate skeptic, as energy secretary raises further concerns about U.S. leadership in addressing global warming. Chris Wright, head of the fracking company Liberty Energy, contends that the climate crisis is a myth. He also runs a foundation that promotes expanded fossil fuel production.

Middle East Geopolitics: How Conflicts Overshadow COP 29 and G20 Goals

Amid these global discussions, the Gaza conflict and Sudan’s humanitarian crisis remain glaring reminders of the fractured state of international governance. Turkey’s refusal to grant airspace to Israel for an international summit reflects the geopolitical undercurrents complicating efforts to build consensus. Turkey reportedly denied Israeli President Isaac Herzog’s aircraft permission to fly through its airspace en route to the COP29 climate conference in Baku, forcing Herzog to cancel his trip. While his office cited “security considerations,” reports from Azerbaijani and Turkish officials suggest the refusal stemmed from deteriorating Turkish-Israeli relations.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan recently announced a complete severance of ties with Israel amid escalating tensions over the Gaza conflict, which has resulted in significant civilian casualties. This shows that unresolved conflicts like the Israeli-Palestinian crisis hinder international cooperation on pressing global challenges, including climate change.

Stalemate at COP29: The Deadlock Over Climate Financing

As COP29 enters its second week, negotiations remain deadlocked over climate financing. This deadlock threatens to stall global efforts to combat the escalating climate crisis. Developing nations are demanding increased financial commitments from wealthy countries. Meanwhile, donor nations argue for broader contributions, including from wealthier developing states. This impasse reflects longstanding tensions in international climate diplomacy, underscoring the need for urgent solutions to bridge divides.

From Paris to COP29: A History of Missed Targets

The Paris Agreement in 2015 set the world’s most ambitious climate goal: limiting global warming to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. To achieve this, developed nations pledged $100 billion annually by 2020 to support developing countries in adapting to climate impacts and transitioning to clean energy. However, this target has never been fully met, eroding trust between nations and hampering progress.

Subsequent COPs have highlighted both breakthroughs and setbacks. COP26 in Glasgow (2021) brought agreements on phasing down coal and increased commitments for climate adaptation. COP27 in Sharm El-Sheikh (2022) marked a historic step by establishing a Loss and Damage Fund to compensate nations most affected by climate disasters. Yet, implementation of these agreements has lagged, with geopolitical crises such as the Russia-Ukraine war diverting attention and resources.

At COP28 in Dubai (2023), the focus shifted to phasing out fossil fuels and accelerating renewable energy transitions. However, disagreements over financing mechanisms persisted, leaving many of the world’s most vulnerable nations without the necessary resources to tackle climate impacts. Now, at COP29, the same fault lines endure, with questions of equity and responsibility dominating the agenda.

The Current Deadlock: Who Pays, and How Much?

Wealthy nations, led by the United States and European countries, advocated for maintaining the $100 billion annual target for public climate financing—a commitment initially made in 2009. In that year, developed countries pledged to mobilize $100 billion per year by 2020 to support developing nations in adapting to and mitigating climate change. Although the deadline was extended to 2025, it was not until 2022—two years later than originally promised—that wealthy nations finally met the $100 billion target.

Yet, many experts, including a United Nations group, assert this figure is woefully inadequate. They recommend tripling public financing by 2030 and mobilizing $1 trillion annually, including private sector contributions, to help developing countries transition to clean energy.

Adding to the tension is the role of middle-income nations like China and oil-rich Middle Eastern states. Wealthier nations argue that these countries should contribute more, given their economic growth and emissions. However, under the 1992 U.N. climate treaty, these nations are still classified as developing and remain outside the official donor group.

China’s position reflects the complexity of this issue. Beijing asserts it has provided $25 billion in climate assistance since 2016 and is willing to do more—but only on its terms. Its reluctance to relinquish developing nation status complicates the already fragile negotiations. A potential compromise involving voluntary contributions from countries like China offers a glimmer of hope but falls short of the binding commitments needed to unlock substantial funding.

The Global South’s Demands

Developing nations, particularly those most vulnerable to climate change, have been vocal about their expectations. They emphasize the need for grants, not loans, to avoid exacerbating debt crises. They prefer government funding over less accountable sources like corporations and voluntary carbon markets, hoping to secure more grant-based funding.

Wealthy donors and multilateral banks often favour loans, which can add debt and interest. Developing nations also seek more transparency to ensure the money is new and not just repurposed from other sources like humanitarian aid. “We also don’t expect loans at market rate to be called climate finance when we need grants,” said Yusuf Nkungula, Malawi’s natural resources secretary, which chairs the least developed country group. This frustration suggests the broader distrust between donor and recipient countries over the nature and accountability of climate funds.

G20 Compromise: A Band-Aid Solution

World leaders, including the U.S. President Joe Biden, China’s Xi Jinping, and India’s Narendra Modi, attended the G20 Summit held this week. Russian President Vladimir Putin opted out, sending Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov instead.

COP29 President Mukhtar Babayev urged G20 leaders, who account for 85% of global GDP and 80% of emissions, to commit to tackling the climate crisis and provide mandates for COP29.

The UN Secretary-General António Guterres emphasised the G20’s pivotal role and urged leaders to set an example by tackling climate change and expressed concern over the progress of COP29.

Similarly, UN climate chief Simon Stiell sent a letter urging G20 leaders to act decisively on climate finance by increasing grants for developing nations and reforming multilateral development banks. Despite differences among leaders, a compromise was reached at the summit, allowing voluntary contributions from developing countries without formal obligations. While this is a step forward, it lacks the binding commitments and robust accountability mechanisms needed to drive meaningful progress.

Mission 1.5: An Obsolete Goal of COP 29

A key element of COP30 will be “Mission 1.5,” which aims to keep the Paris Agreement goal of limiting warming to 1.5°C alive. Current national commitments, however, are projected to lead to a 2.6°C rise. The 1.5°C target, already breached in some contexts, feels like an obsolete benchmark rather than an achievable goal. Developing countries insist they can only enhance their emissions reduction targets if wealthier nations, responsible for the majority of historic emissions, shoulder the financial burden.

Bahamas Prime Minister Philip Davis highlights this at COP29, asserting that achieving the 1.5°C target is possible only through a large-scale, G20-led effort to drastically cut greenhouse gas emissions.

The Way Forward: Leveraging COP 29 and G20 for Sustainable Progress

The way forward requires urgent global cooperation to address climate change, poverty, and geopolitical instability. COP29’s deadlock on climate financing highlights the need for compromise and equitable solutions, particularly for the Global South. While the G20 has made progress, binding commitments are essential for meaningful change. Moving forward, the focus should be on implementing concrete actions, prioritizing climate justice, and ensuring transparent and accessible financing. Overcoming political divisions and encouraging cross-border cooperation are crucial to meeting climate goals and addressing global challenges effectively.

As November 2024 unfolds, the echoes of promises made in Baku and Brazil will reverberate far beyond their conference halls. Will the world rise above its divisions, temper its addiction to the engines of war, and finally align its actions with its aspirations for a sustainable future? Or will COP29 and the G20 Summit be remembered as yet another chapter in the long saga of missed opportunities and unfulfilled commitments? The coming months will test whether humanity can chart a path away from the crossroads of crisis and toward a horizon of hope, peace, and collective survival.

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COP29 and G20: Defining Global Cooperation Crisis