As the Taliban’s internal divisions widen, Afghanistan is caught in a web of economic collapse, governance failures, and escalating border tensions with Pakistan. The regime, already struggling to maintain unity, is facing growing challenges both from within and abroad. With the Torkham border closure entering its third week, trade disruptions have further deepened Afghanistan’s economic woes, while infighting among Taliban factions exposes the fractures in their fragile rule.
Internal Power Struggles: A Regime on the Brink
The Taliban government, now more than three years into power, is showing unmistakable signs of fragmentation. Once an insurgent force united by the common cause of ousting foreign forces, the Taliban have now become ensnared in internal conflict. Power struggles are playing out between factions, particularly those aligned with the Kandahar-based supreme leader Mullah Haibatullah Akhundzada and Kabul-based leaders. The current leadership dynamic is marked by competition for dominance between these power centers, reflecting the group’s inability to maintain cohesion.
The internal strife is further compounded by regional and ethnic tensions, with the Taliban unable to balance the interests of different factions from across Afghanistan. Although the divide is often simplified as a contest for supremacy between the Taliban’s leaders in Kandahar and Kabul, the reality is far more nuanced. Central to this division is the leadership style of Mullah Haibatullah, who has relied heavily on his Noorzai tribal allies in an attempt to consolidate power. This strategy, however, has alienated key factions and leaders from other regions, creating rifts within the movement that are becoming harder to bridge.
Where Mullah Omar once commanded a degree of respect and unity, Haibatullah’s rule has been marked by secrecy, a lack of transparency, and the sidelining of leaders from various regions. Rather than managing the transition from insurgency to governance, the Taliban under Haibatullah’s leadership has failed to build the necessary political and administrative infrastructure for effective governance. The internal rifts are widening, leaving the regime struggling to present itself as a united government to the international community, while also failing to meet the needs of the Afghan people.
Economic Collapse and Exploitation
Afghanistan’s economic situation has continued to deteriorate under the Taliban’s stewardship. The economic lifeblood of the country, once propped up by foreign aid, has withered as the Taliban have failed to establish a stable and functional economic system. In the absence of external support, the economy has plunged into a crisis exacerbated by rampant mismanagement. The Taliban have largely relied on the mining sector as their primary source of revenue, but this has concentrated wealth in the hands of a few, particularly figures like Haji Bashir Noorzai. These individuals, closely tied to the Noorzai tribe, have cornered the sector, while the broader Afghan population continues to suffer from rising inflation, dwindling resources, and limited access to basic goods.
Compounding the crisis is the Taliban’s continued imposition of heavy taxes on both individuals and businesses. These taxes have driven many already struggling Afghan citizens further into poverty, resulting in growing public resentment. Ordinary people have borne the brunt of the Taliban’s inability to manage the country’s resources effectively, while the elite—close to the Taliban leadership—continue to prosper at the expense of the general population. As a result, Afghanistan is facing a significant economic downturn, with little hope of recovery unless there is a drastic shift in governance.
The situation has worsened due to the looming threat of U.S. aid restrictions, which would further destabilize the country’s fragile economy. Aid that once served as a lifeline for the Afghan population is now in jeopardy, deepening the despair of a nation that is rapidly sliding into economic collapse. Inflation continues to spiral, and with it, the cost of basic necessities like food and medicine. The Afghan people, already on the edge, are facing an uncertain future.
Torkham Border Closure: A Crisis Within a Crisis
One of the most glaring indicators of the Taliban’s mismanagement has been the ongoing Torkham border closure. Since February 21, 2025, the border crossing between Afghanistan and Pakistan has been sealed, triggering a wave of economic disruptions. Torkham is a vital trade route for both nations, but tensions over the construction of border infrastructure in contested areas have led to repeated clashes between Pakistani and Afghan forces. The decision to block the border has had a devastating effect on cross-border trade, with truckloads of goods—including essential supplies like food and medicine—stranded on either side.
The closure of Torkham has compounded the economic difficulties already facing Afghanistan. The disruptions in trade have left Afghan traders unable to export goods or import necessities, further driving up prices within Afghanistan. This has made life even more difficult for the Afghan population, whose purchasing power has already been severely eroded by inflation. Food prices are skyrocketing, and basic goods are becoming increasingly scarce. These economic hardships have further exacerbated the growing discontent within the country.
Beyond the economic fallout, the border closure has also strained relations between Afghanistan and Pakistan. Pakistan has long accused the Taliban of harboring Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) militants, who use Afghan territory to launch attacks on Pakistani soil. The Pakistani government has responded with increasing military action along the border, further fueling tensions. Meanwhile, the Taliban’s support for these militant groups, which they continue to harbor despite Pakistani demands, has only worsened the situation.
The border closure is a crisis within a crisis. Not only does it symbolize the Taliban’s failure to manage Afghanistan’s foreign relations, but it has also intensified internal struggles. As trade is severely curtailed and the country’s economic situation worsens, the cracks within the Taliban’s leadership are growing. This issue underscores the Taliban’s failure to manage Afghanistan’s economic relations, and it highlights the broader incompetence that has led to the country’s continued suffering.
A Government in Freefall
The Taliban’s failure to govern effectively is not just an economic issue—it is one of governance, legitimacy, and international standing. The group’s refusal to acknowledge the human rights of Afghan citizens, particularly women and girls, has been met with widespread condemnation from the international community. Despite multiple opportunities to engage diplomatically with the West, the Taliban have chosen instead to double down on their hardline policies, rejecting international calls for reform and inclusivity. Their policies on gender apartheid, strict curbs on media freedoms, and human rights violations have isolated Afghanistan, making it increasingly difficult for the Taliban to secure the recognition they desperately seek.
International pressure continues to mount, with the International Criminal Court (ICC) issuing arrest warrants for senior Taliban leaders. These warrants represent a legal challenge to the Taliban’s authority and have served to divide the regime further. Some factions are using the ICC’s legal actions as a platform to challenge Haibatullah’s leadership, raising doubts about his ability to steer the group toward stability. The global community has shown little tolerance for the Taliban’s actions, leaving the regime with few allies on the international stage.
Also See: Afghanistan in Freefall: The Afghan Taliban-ISKP Spiral and Its Regional Fallout
What Lies Ahead?
The road ahead for the Taliban seems uncertain, marked by fractures that are widening with each passing day. The group’s inability to unite internally, compounded by mounting economic and diplomatic pressures, means that Afghanistan’s future remains precarious. Internal divisions are deepening, and there is growing speculation about how long the regime can hold on before the fractures lead to collapse.
The international community can play a role in accelerating the Taliban’s decline by maintaining diplomatic and legal pressure, particularly by leveraging ICC indictments to further delegitimize the regime. Strategic engagement with Afghan opposition groups and diplomatic isolation could intensify the regime’s internal struggles. However, the Taliban’s fate will ultimately depend on how swiftly these pressures come to a head. It may not be a matter of if the regime collapses, but when and how the internal divisions and external pressures will culminate in the fall of the Taliban’s fragile rule.
As Afghanistan teeters on the brink of a new crisis, one thing is clear—the Taliban’s grip on power is weakening. Whether it is through internal rebellions, economic collapse, or heightened military pressure from abroad, Afghanistan’s future seems increasingly uncertain. Only time will tell how the situation unfolds and if the Taliban can adapt—or if they will fall under the weight of their own failure to govern effectively.
SAT Commentaries’ are social media threads by various authors, reproduced here for website use. Views are their own.
SAT Commentaries, a collection of insightful social media threads on current events and social issues, featuring diverse perspectives from various authors.
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