For years, Pakistan’s vast mineral wealth has been a story of immense potential left dormant. With untapped reserves now estimated by government officials to be worth upwards of $8 trillion, the country holds a powerful key to its own economic future, yet this colossal fortune remains largely unexploited. This glaring disconnect between a nation’s resources and its economic reality presents a compelling case for a new kind of foreign partnership. As the United States, the world’s largest economy, seeks to de-risk its critical mineral supply chains, which are currently over-reliant on a few key nations, an opportunity arises for a strategic collaboration with Pakistan. A targeted US-Pakistan partnership to develop the country’s mineral sector is more than just an economic play. It is a strategic imperative that could simultaneously stabilize Pakistan’s economy and secure America’s supply of essential materials.
Pakistan’s Untapped Mineral Potential: A Quantitative Overview
The scale of Pakistan’s mineral potential is difficult to overstate. The country is home to vast deposits of globally significant resources, from the world’s second-largest salt mines to expansive coal, chromite, and rare earth element deposits. The crown jewel is arguably the Reko Diq copper-gold project in Balochistan, which is one of the world’s largest untapped reserves. Canada’s Barrick Gold Corporation, a major stakeholder, forecasts that the project will generate an estimated $74 billion in free cash flow over a 37-year mine life. Beyond Reko Diq, Pakistan possesses an estimated 185 billion tons of coal, with the Thar Desert alone holding 175.5 billion tons, making the country the sixth richest in the world in coal resources.
Despite this immense treasure trove, the mining sector’s contribution to Pakistan’s economy remains a fraction of its potential. In fiscal year 2024, while the combined manufacturing and mining sectors saw a notable growth of 4.9%, the mining sector’s individual contribution to the GDP has historically lingered at around 1-2%. The chasm between potential and reality is further highlighted by Pakistan’s trade balance in this sector. According to data in 2023, the country imported over $20 billion in mineral products while exporting only around $3.88 billion, underscoring its dependency and missed opportunity. This economic disconnect is a consequence of several factors, including a lack of modern technology, poor infrastructure, and an unstable and complex regulatory environment that has long deterred large-scale foreign direct investment.
The US’s Strategic Vulnerability: A Need for Diversification
For the United States, this dynamic presents a unique strategic opportunity. The global race for critical minerals, essential for advanced technologies, defense systems, and the clean energy transition, has exposed a significant weakness in America’s supply chains. The US is heavily reliant on foreign imports for many of these materials. According to the US Geological Survey, the US is 100% net import reliant for at least 11 mineral commodities, including graphite and manganese, and more than 50% import reliant for an additional 31. This reliance creates a profound strategic vulnerability.
The supply chains for many of these critical minerals are heavily concentrated in a small number of countries, with one country dominating both the extraction and, more importantly, the processing stages. For example, China controls approximately 70-80% of global rare earth element processing, giving it a powerful position to manipulate global markets. In 2024, 70% of US rare earth element imports originated from China. Similarly, for other minerals found in abundance in Pakistan, the US has high reliance on a few key nations. For chromite ore, which is essential for stainless steel, the US imports over 96% of its supply from South Africa and Turkey. While for copper, the country depends on imports from nations like Chile, Canada, and Mexico to meet its needs.
This concentrated supply chain leaves the US and its allies exposed to geopolitical disruptions and market manipulation. The recent imposition of export controls on materials like gallium and germanium by China serves as a stark reminder of this vulnerability. Diversifying these supply chains is not merely an economic preference, it is a national security imperative. Pakistan, with its vast and largely underexplored mineral reserves, offers a viable, alternative source for these critical minerals. By partnering with Pakistan, the US can directly address its supply chain risks, reduce its reliance on a single nation, and strengthen its economic and national security. This presents a unique opportunity for both nations to align their strategic interests.
A Roadmap for a Successful Partnership
However, a successful partnership requires navigating significant challenges. On the Pakistani side, these include bureaucratic inefficiencies, political instability, and the need for a transparent and predictable regulatory framework. Pakistan is already addressing these issues through its new mineral policies. On the US side, a sustainable approach must be adopted, one that learns from past foreign investment models that have often been perceived as purely extractive.
A successful US-Pakistan framework for mineral cooperation must be multi-pronged and rooted in a long-term vision. First, the US can provide critical investment and technology. With its expertise in modern mining practices, the US can help Pakistan transition from primitive, small-scale operations to large-scale, efficient, and environmentally responsible mining. This includes providing the capital and equipment necessary for deep-earth exploration and extraction.
Second, the partnership must focus on infrastructure development. Mineral-rich regions, particularly in Balochistan, often lack the basic infrastructure, roads, power, and logistical networks needed to support major mining operations. Joint ventures can be established to not only develop these resources but also to build the necessary infrastructure, linking remote areas to global supply chains and fostering broader regional development.
Third, a core component must be human capital development. To ensure the economic benefits of mining projects are shared broadly and equitably, a focus on local employment and skill transfer is paramount. This includes establishing vocational training centers and educational programs to equip the local workforce with the skills needed for the modern mining industry.
Finally, and perhaps most importantly, the partnership must prioritize security and stability through community engagement and joint counter-terrorism strategies. This front is already seeing progress with joint counter-terrorism meetings and the US’s declaring of the BLA a global terrorist group. The BLA is a terrorist group active in the most mineral-rich areas of Balochistan. Additionally, the US can assist Pakistan in developing a more nuanced security strategy that incorporates community engagement and economic empowerment, ensuring that local communities are genuine stakeholders in the projects on their land.
A Win-Win Situation
In conclusion, US-Pakistan mineral cooperation is a mutually beneficial endeavor that moves beyond a simple transactional relationship. For the US, this partnership offers a path to diversifying its mineral supply and enhancing its geopolitical standing in a crucial region. It is a chance to build a resilient and secure supply chain in an era of intense competition. For Pakistan, it represents a chance to turn its dormant mineral wealth into a tangible engine of national prosperity, creating jobs, attracting foreign direct investment, and building critical infrastructure. The time for rhetoric is over. It’s time for a concrete, transparent, and collaborative plan that turns Pakistan’s mineral potential from a theoretical figure into a cornerstone of a stronger bilateral relationship and a more secure global economy. This new frontier of cooperation has the potential to reshape the fortunes of both nations for decades to come.
