Is it the first time that India has been found involved in a covert intelligence activity in a foreign country? The answer is definitely no. But it is the first time that India has come off as adopting an aggressive and bold posture in carrying out the murder of a Sikh pro-Khalistan dissident, if the allegations presented by Canadian Prime Minister, Justin Trudeau, before the Parliament turn out to be true. Denying the allegations is India’s obvious response and expelling a Canadian Diplomat in “tit-for-tat” a classic diplomatic move. But has the storm passed by any chance? What have we gained and what have we lost in this new diplomatic rift between India and Canada? We can find the answers in some possible scenarios.
The Bigger Picture
But before that, a few things are important to note. One that Canada hosts the largest Sikh population outside India’s Punjab and is also “home to one of the largest overseas communities of Indian origin.” Second, we are yet to hear anything substantial from the United States (US) on the matter. The United Kingdom (UK) and Australia have stated that they are in close contact with “partners.” The US, however, remains rather quiet. Trudeau, for his part, has confirmed prior discussion on the matter with partners; particularly the US, UK, and Australia. The upcoming speech of Trudeau before the United Nations General Assembly later this week will be important. This speech will help determine whether the allegations hold substance. If he brings the similar tone to the UNGA floor, then perhaps Canada knows what it is doing.
The reason why the world is less likely to give Canada’s accusations the attention they deserve for now lies in Canada’s meager standing in geopolitics.
If India did carry out the murder, it reveals two things. First, it indicates clear operational mishandling and intelligence loopholes on India’s part. Second, it shows that intolerance for dissent has reached a level where India is now not even shying away from taking lives abroad. India has periodically shared concern with Canada over pro-Khalistan voices rallying and organizing. But in any case, it did not authorize it to execute a murder on Canadian soil.
IIf Canada manages to prove the allegations and make them public, the response of Canada’s key Western partners will be noteworthy. For now, the response is driven more by caution. We might not expect major upheaval in the West’s dealings with India, given the former’s tendency to overlook the latter’s blatant violations of democratic values. However, this act will surely end up on the list of India’s bold misadventures. It will mark a further drift from any remaining traces of values-based democracy.
A Fixed Episode
Another scenario is the possibility of India orchestrating this entire episode to present something appealing to the local audience before the general elections in April-May 2024. Governments worldwide often go the extra mile to appease the general public when elections are approaching. The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) government, which has ruled India for two successive terms, has done this in the past. Selling we have made India a global power is easier than uplifting the commoners’ quality of life.
The right wing Modi’s social media is already glorifying the act as a bold and grand endeavor, simultaneously maligning Trudeau and Canada through memes.
So it is not unlikely that India did it on purpose to garner an image of we are a power that can do whatever it wishes across the world to protect our interests.
Another likely scenario that fits the bigger geopolitical stream is closer to the one above. India’s Western strategic allies, the US and the UK, might have manufactured this crisis. For the US, the prime interest lies in doing anything that helps counter and contain China’s growing power posturing. And no country is the US’s favorite than India in this regard. India craves a global power standing, and the US is more than ready to bestow it as long as it serves its interests. But the US launching India through an intelligence fix is equivalent to granting it impunity to go about such covert ventures as a routine, just like Israel did in the Middle East at the behest of the US.
What’s in It for South Asia?
This will have far-reaching consequences for the South Asian region, especially Pakistan. India has already carried out such covert killings inside Pakistan targeting Sikhs and others on possible links with Khalistan and Kashmir’s freedom-fighting struggles. It was just recently that such a network prompted by Indian intelligence was traced inside Pakistan. India’s larger strategy to bank on Pakistan’s enmity has earlier expressed itself in the Cold Start Doctrine. The famous Balakot Airstrikes were India’s way of testing Pakistan’s nuclear doctrine.
Emboldened by this incident, India might turn to such maligning tactics that do not require physical deployment of military hardware.
Though it remains to be seen how this near diplomatic crisis unfolds in the coming days and what are the outcomes, but it has so far started a social media storm that indicates that the Indian far right does not bother about violating another country’s sovereignty. Instead, it is busy glorifying the murder of Hardeep Singh as India’s power that knows no borders. For Modi’s India, this was both a new low and a new high, depending upon what audience is intended.
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