Trump “kind of needs China more than China needs him,” said Alejandro Reyes, a professor specializing in Chinese foreign policy at the University of Hong Kong.
The source of America’s current diplomatic predicament lies in the failure of its recent military adventurism in the Middle East. Having launched an illegal, unprovoked war against Iran alongside Israel, the US military has found itself trapped in a costly and protracted deadlock.
This conflict, now stretching into its sixth month, has strained US resources, inflated domestic economic pressures through disrupted energy supplies and isolated Washington internationally, particularly as China maintains ties with Tehran. Trump’s summit agenda reflects this vulnerability that beyond modest trade deals on soybeans, beef and Boeing jets, he seeks Beijing’s mediation to pressure Iran into reopening the Strait of Hormuz and easing nuclear tensions.
“The Iran issue is not really the central issue for either party in this summit,”
said Christopher Heurlin, an associate professor of government and Asian studies at Bowdoin College.
China, conversely, enters these talks from a position of strength. Beijing’s advantages include its strong economy and grip on key supply chains like rare earth minerals essential for US weapons and tech industries.
In exchange for any assistance on Iran such as diplomatic nudges toward de-escalation China is poised to extract concessions, notably on Taiwan. Xi Jinping views the island as a core interest and reports indicate Beijing may condition Hormuz-related support on curtailed US arms sales to Taipei and a firmer US stance against Taiwanese independence.
This dynamic builds on decades of Sino-Taiwanese friction rooted in the Chinese Civil War. After the Kuomintang’s defeat in 1949, Republic of China forces retreated to Taiwan, establishing a de facto separate government while the People’s Republic claimed sovereignty.
Tensions escalated through crises like the 1950s Strait bombardments and 1996 missile tests, prompting US interventions via the Taiwan Relations Act, which mandates defensive arms provision. Recent Chinese military drills and “reunification” rhetoric signal growing assertiveness, with Beijing’s navy now surpassing the US in regional tonnage. Trump plans to raise Taiwan arms during the summit, yet his Iran woes diminish bargaining power.
The Beijing summit could lock in China’s upper hand. A short-term trade truce might happen, but it would force US pullbacks likely encouraging Xi to push harder on Taiwan while Trump claims a political victory at home. This shows how side conflicts, like Iran, can unexpectedly shift global power dynamics.
