![Is the Saudi-Iran thaw the beginning of a new era in Middle Eastern diplomacy—ushering in what could be called Middle East 2.0? [Image via Saudi Press Agency SPA/AFP]](https://southasiatimes.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/AFP__20241111__36M8376__v1__HighRes__SaudiOicArabLeagueDiplomacyIsraelPalestinianLeb.webp)
In a region long defined by tension and rivalry, the Saudi-Iran thaw has sparked whispers of a seismic shift—could this be the beginning of a new era in Middle Eastern diplomacy, or is it merely a temporary truce?
Saudi Arabia organized Arab-Islamic Summit in November 2024, , where representatives from at least 50 Islamic countries participated, including Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Malaysian Prime Minister Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim, and Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif. The summit addressed several critical issues facing the Muslim world, particularly the ongoing humanitarian crisis in Palestine.
One specific aspect that captured the limelight was Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s call for enhanced cooperation with Iran, signaling the beginning of a new phase in diplomatic relations between the two nations.
The re-engagement of erstwhile political and sectarian rivals—Riyadh and Tehran—marks a new chapter not only for the Middle East’s political landscape but the global politics too. The Saudi-Iran thaw, largely facilitated by Chinese diplomacy, ushers in an era where regional powers are prioritizing direct negotiations and reconciliation, moving away from reliance on traditional Western mediators.
Arab-Islamic Summit: a Milestone in Saudi-Iran Rapprochement
At the Arab-Islamic summit held in Riyadh, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman condemned Israel’s actions in Gaza, referring to them as “genocide”. He also called on Israel to respect Iran’s sovereignty and refrain from attacking Iranian soil. In addition, he urged the international community to ensure Israel respects Iran’s sovereignty and refrains from violating its territory.
While Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian was unable to attend the Summit “due to his busy schedule,” he spoke by phone with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. Discussing bilateral ties, both leaders expressed hope that cooperation between their countries is “promoted further”.
In light of this exchange, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman thanked Pezeshkian for his call, acknowledging his circumstances, and extended his wishes for success to “our brothers in Iran.” Notably, Iran’s First Vice President, Mohammad Reza Aref, is expected to attend the upcoming meeting.
Key Diplomatic Engagements: Military Drills, and State Visits
Following the Saudi-Iranian rapprochement brokered by China in 2023, the former rivals have expressed a commitment to deepen their relationship. In October 2024, Iranian state media reported that General Fayyad al-Ruwaili, Chief of Staff of Saudi Arabia’s armed forces, met with his Iranian counterpart, General Mohammad Bagheri, in Tehran. The meeting, held at the Iranian Armed Forces General Staff Headquarters, focused on advancing defence diplomacy and expanding bilateral cooperation. In another sign of warming relations, Saudi Arabia announced in October that it had conducted joint military drills with Iran in the Sea of Oman.
Pakistan’s Potential Role
Pakistan, for the first time, was invited to an Arab League Summit and has been actively engaging with Saudi Arabia in recent diplomatic exchanges. Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif’s visit builds on a series of engagements between Pakistani and Saudi officials. Notably, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman reaffirmed support for Pakistan’s development and investment initiatives. Pakistan’s Army Chief, General Asim Munir, has also met with Saudi leaders, including Crown Prince Mohammed, to discuss regional security and further bilateral cooperation.
Given Pakistan’s strategic position and its evolving diplomatic ties, it stands to play a significant role in bridging Saudi-Iran relations moving forward.
What Trump’s Re-election Means for Reproachment?
The ongoing diplomatic engagements in the Middle East coincide with the re-election of Donald Trump, who will begin his second term as United States president.
Trump has expressed his commitment to pursuing peace in the Middle East, particularly as U.S. ally Israel remains engaged in conflicts with Iranian-backed groups in Gaza and Lebanon.
During his first term, Trump facilitated the Abraham Accords, which led to normalization agreements between Israel, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), and Bahrain, brokered largely by Jared Kushner, Trump’s son-in-law and senior advisor.
Kushner’s role in the Accords was pivotal, as he worked tirelessly behind the scenes to engage Arab nations and Israel in unprecedented diplomatic dialogue. His efforts were seen as a significant step toward reshaping the Middle East’s diplomatic landscape.
However, following the events of October 7, prospects for Saudi-Israeli rapprochement appear increasingly uncertain. Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s September statement made it clear that the kingdom would not recognize Israel without the creation of a Palestinian state, suggesting any normalization deal may be further postponed.
Catalysts for Reconciliation: China’s Role and Regional Needs
The Saudi-Iran relationship has been fraught since the Iranian Revolution of 1979. The tensions stemmed from fundamentally differing views on the political role of religion. With Iran championing revolutionary ideals and Saudi Arabia serving as a conservative bastion of Islam aligned with Western powers, the two nations found themselves on opposing sides of numerous regional conflicts. These contrasting positions became especially evident during the Arab Spring protests, which began in 2010 and spread across the region.
Saudi Arabia feared that Iran might leverage and influence the protest movements for its strategic purposes. On the other hand, Iran felt insecure of any possible Saudia hegemony in the region. However, in recent years, both nations have re-evaluated their positions, acknowledging the economic and social toll of prolonged proxy conflicts in Yemen, Syria, and beyond. The cost of these conflicts has played a key role in pushing both Riyadh and Tehran toward reconsidering their strained relations.
Why are the Two Countries Pursuing Rapprochement?
The Saudi-Iranian rapprochement is primarily driven by Saudi Arabia. Analysts note that Iran’s attack on Saudi oil facilities in 2019 made Riyadh realize that it could not completely rely on the U.S. and would have to resolve issues with its Iranian neighbour. Moreover, Riyadh’s heavy dependence on oil has heightened its interest in ensuring regional stability as a crucial economic safeguard. Saudi Arabia hopes that improving relations with Iran could contribute to halting Houthi shelling on Saudi territory, which is seen as a direct result of Iran’s influence in Yemen.
Riyadh’s concerns over the potential formation of an Iran-Qatar coalition also influence its decision to seek improved ties with Tehran. During the Arab Spring, Qatar supported revolutionary movements, while Saudi Arabia backed the status quo. Notably, this ideological clash, particularly over Qatar’s support for Egypt’s Muslim Brotherhood-led government, drove a wedge between Saudi Arabia and Qatar, pushing the latter closer to Iran. From 2017 to 2021, Saudi Arabia, along with the UAE, Egypt, and others, imposed a blockade on Qatar due to its ties with Iran and support for Islamist groups opposed by Saudi Arabia. While relations have since been restored, significant differences remain on many regional issues.
On the Iranian side, the country’s desire to prevent the formation of an anti-Iran coalition between Arab states and Israel has been a strong motivator for pursuing improved ties with Saudi Arabia. In addition, the ongoing economic sanctions imposed by the West have pushed Iran to seek alternative economic partnerships through multilateral regional cooperation and strengthened ties with neighboring states.
Trump, China, and the Evolving Middle East
In essence, the evolving Saudi-Iran rapprochement is not just a fleeting diplomatic shift; it marks the dawn of a potentially transformative phase for the Middle East.
As these two regional heavyweights move beyond decades of tension, their engagement could be the harbinger of a broader shift in global geopolitics. In the coming years, this rapprochement may enable a more cooperative regional order, potentially redefining the power dynamics in the Middle East.
In the wake of Donald Trump’s re-election as U.S. president, the geopolitical landscape will undoubtedly change. Trump’s focus on Middle Eastern peace, which marked his first term, is set to continue, but in a context shaped by the ongoing Gaza war, which has escalated tensions between Israel and Iran-backed militant groups in Gaza and Lebanon. Trump’s administration may prioritize a more assertive stance on peace efforts, leveraging the Abraham Accords and attempting to broker new agreements. However, his previous efforts to normalize ties between Saudi Arabia and Israel are likely to face significant challenges. Saudi Arabia’s recent rejection of normalization with Israel without the establishment of a Palestinian state means that prospects for a breakthrough may be postponed, especially as the Gaza conflict remains unresolved.
At the same time, China’s role in brokering the Saudi-Iran rapprochement could expand, pushing the U.S. to reconsider its influence in the region. With a growing Chinese presence, the Middle East could transition from a U.S.-dominated diplomatic sphere to a more multipolar landscape. This shift suggests a future where regional powers like Saudi Arabia and Iran may increasingly rely on direct negotiations and mutual interests, bypassing traditional Western mediators.
From Bilateral to Multilateral: Middle East 2.0?
Looking toward the future, the Middle East may see a more fragmented yet strategically interconnected political order—ushering in what could be called Middle East 2.0. Yet, the risks remain high. The Gaza conflict, ongoing proxy wars in Yemen and Syria, and the unresolved Israeli-Palestinian issue will continue to serve as flashpoints. The challenge for Saudi Arabia and Iran will be to manage these tensions while pursuing their broader diplomatic goals. If they succeed, their rapprochement could lead to a more cooperative regional framework, with long-term consequences for the balance of power in the Middle East.
In the long term, the future of Middle Eastern diplomacy may no longer hinge solely on bilateral agreements but rather on the ability of regional powers to build a sustainable, multilateral framework for cooperation. As the world watches, the next decade could witness a recalibration of alliances—one where Saudi Arabia, Iran, and other regional actors redefine their roles in a changing global order, shaping the region’s trajectory for years to come.
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