With the recent Pak-Indo conflict resulting in an embarrassing military loss for India by Chinese made Pakistani Jets, the Modi government’s hostile rhetoric towards China increasingly rings hollow, both diplomatically and economically. A statement by Prime Minister of India, Narendra Modi calling for Chinese products’ boycott by Indians signifies a new era of shifting geo-economic preferences in South Asia. The dissonance between Indian PM’s public condemnation of Beijing and the deepening economic interdependence between the two countries raises critical questions for country’s economic stability, especially as its hostility towards Pakistan simmer and India’s global standing appears to plateau in both Washington and Beijing.
The Rhetoric-Reality Divide
The Modi administration’s calls for a boycott of Chinese products have long been a populist tool, often deployed in the aftermath of border clashes such as the Galwan Valley conflict in 2020. Yet, these declarations stand in stark contrast to trade data. In fiscal year 2024, India’s imports from China surpassed a record $100 billion, making China India’s largest trading partner. According to Global Trade Research Initiatives and UN COMTRADE data, India’s trade deficit with China reached $99.2 billion, a record figure.
Ironically, even as Prime Minister Modi evokes nationalist fervor and economic decoupling from China, key sectors of the Indian economy, ranging from nuclear energy and electronics to pharmaceuticals and machinery—remain deeply reliant on Chinese imports. In 2020, over 60% of India’s imports of electrical machinery and nearly 70% of nuclear reactors and related components were sourced from China. China has also quietly supplied critical components to India’s nuclear power program, even as it blocks India’s entry into the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG).
Strategic Drift Amid Global Realignments
This strategic ambiguity risks isolating India at a time when global geopolitics is shifting rapidly after its appalling outburst towards America when Trump offered mediation on Kashmir conflict. The Quad alliance—once a hopeful axis of cooperation among the U.S., Japan, Australia, and India—is showing signs of fragmentation. While Tokyo and Canberra balance strategic concerns with pragmatic engagement with Beijing, Washington’s Indo-Pacific strategy increasingly focuses on economic corridors, AI innovation, and clean energy infrastructure—domains where India remains lagging behind.
Meanwhile, India’s rigid posturing toward China—paradoxically coupled with increased economic dependence—risks undermining its credibility as a regional power and strategic partner. As both China and the United States recalibrate their global priorities and navigating the sectors of mutual cooperation, India’s inconsistencies are not going unnoticed.
The Pakistan Factor: Strategic Opportunities in South Asia
For Pakistan, these developments present both caution and opportunity. India’s economic and diplomatic duality exposes weaknesses that Islamabad must carefully assess. The economic entanglement between India and China—despite New Delhi’s nationalist rhetoric—reveals a fundamental contradiction: India’s foreign policy lacks coherence between ideology and realpolitik.
Amid these contradictions, Pakistan has an opportunity to project itself as a more stable, reliable partner within the emerging multipolar order. Its close strategic partnership with China through the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) and its increasingly nuanced diplomacy with Gulf states, Turkey, and Central Asia position it well to attract regional investment and trade. And more importantly after an apprehensive response from IAG on the issue of dismantling and delegitimizing proxies working within Afghanistan, Pakistan happens to be entering in a new diplomatic and economic realm.
As India bleeds economic credibility and international trust, Pakistan must reinforce its image as a rational actor—especially in forums like the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) and Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Moreover, with India’s faltering ties with both Beijing and Washington, Islamabad has a window to engage with both great powers on its own terms, leveraging its geographical and geo-economic relevance.
Risks of Modi’s Anti-China Gambit
The Modi government’s anti-China rhetoric is not without consequences. It has emboldened ultranationalist elements domestically, destabilized regional trade confidence, and fueled antagonism with both China and Pakistan. This political theater diverts attention from India’s ballooning trade deficit and undercuts regional economic integration—something South Asia desperately needs. In the event of escalated Indo-Pak tensions—whether over Kashmir or Balochistan—India’s economic dependency on China could become a strategic liability. Beijing is unlikely to remain neutral in the face of direct provocations against its allies or commercial interests in Pakistan. In essence, Modi’s bluff may be called at the most inopportune time, and South Asia cannot afford the fallout.
Conclusion: Strategic Maturity vs Political Theater
Modi’s anti-China rhetoric remains a pitfall for India’s economy—a diversion from real economic vulnerabilities and regional miscalculations. For Pakistan, the challenge is to rise above reactionary diplomacy and craft a policy rooted in economic resilience, multilateral partnerships, and strategic maturity, all of this starts from within.
The future of South Asia hinges not on who shouts loudest against China, if Modi takes notice, but on who navigates the currents of global change with wisdom, realism, and strategic foresight.
