The ‘India Out’ Phenomenon: A New Era in South Asian Politics

In the past year, the ‘India Out’ movement has gained unprecedented momentum across South Asia, with countries like Bangladesh, the Maldives, Nepal, and Bhutan witnessing growing resistance to Indian influence. A recent survey conducted by the South Asian Research Institute revealed that 62% of the population in the Maldives, 55% in Bangladesh, and 48% in Nepal now support policies that distance their countries from India’s political and military presence. This surge in anti-India sentiment highlights the shifting dynamics of the region, where India’s once-dominant role is now being challenged by a collective pushback from its neighbors.

India’s historical approach to regional dominance, marked by political maneuvering, economic leverage, and covert intelligence operations, has sparked significant backlash. While New Delhi continues to justify its interventions as necessary to counterbalance China’s growing influence in the region, many South Asian nations have begun to reject India’s perceived hegemonic ambitions.

Also See: The Maldives’ India Out Conundrum

Growing Resistance and Political Manipulation

One of the most prominent flashpoints has been in the Maldives. A leaked dossier from Indian intelligence agencies exposed a covert plan to topple President Mohamed Muizzu’s government — a government that had taken a firm anti-India stance and pledged to expel Indian military personnel from the island nation. According to the documents, Indian officials had offered a bribe of USD 6 million to Maldivian opposition leaders to undermine Muizzu’s presidency and force a regime change. The so-called ‘Democratic Renewal Initiative’ has raised alarm bells across the region, casting a spotlight on India’s often clandestine methods to maintain its strategic foothold in the Maldives.

This revelation comes as Muizzu, who campaigned on a platform of reducing Indian influence and strengthening ties with China, won a resounding victory in the 2023 elections. His administration has already moved to scale back India’s military presence, marking a significant shift in the Maldives’ foreign policy. Indian officials, however, have been quick to downplay these developments, citing national security concerns over the Maldives’ growing ties with Beijing, particularly with its location along vital maritime trade routes.

Meanwhile, in Nepal, India’s intelligence agencies have faced accusations of manipulating the country’s political landscape. Critics claim that India has sought to influence Nepal’s recent elections by supporting pro-India political parties, allegedly through covert financial assistance and media campaigns. This interference has sparked widespread resentment, as Nepalese citizens and political parties alike question the sanctity of their country’s political sovereignty.

A Thaw in Relations with China: India’s Double Game

India’s political and military interventions in South Asia have been justified under the guise of countering China’s increasing influence in the region. However, as India begins to thaw its relations with Beijing — particularly in light of the 2023 border negotiations — this contradictory approach has raised suspicions. While India presents itself as a regional power striving for peace, the continued use of political leverage, intelligence networks, and economic pressure on neighboring countries to secure its strategic dominance remains evident.

Countries like Bangladesh and Bhutan are increasingly seeking to diversify their foreign policies, turning toward new economic and diplomatic partners, including China. Bangladesh, for instance, has seen a marked increase in trade and infrastructural ties with Beijing, challenging India’s long-standing role as the country’s primary trading partner.

In Bhutan, India’s heavy-handed approach to the country’s foreign policy has long been a source of tension. The small Himalayan kingdom, sandwiched between India and China, has faced persistent pressure from New Delhi to align its policies with Indian strategic interests. This interference has led many Bhutanese to question their country’s political autonomy, with some fearing the erosion of their sovereignty under India’s dominance.

The Fall of Sheikh Hasina’s Government: A Turning Point

In Bangladesh, the ‘India Out’ movement has gained considerable traction, particularly in the wake of the fall of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina’s government. Hasina, who has long been viewed as an ally of India, faced mounting criticism from opposition groups and civil society for her government’s close ties with New Delhi. Activists, led by figures like Pinaki Bhattacharya, have accused Hasina of compromising Bangladesh’s national interests in favor of Indian political and economic influence.

Bhattacharya, a prominent Bangladeshi influencer based in France, has led an international campaign targeting Indian products, media, and cultural exports. This movement has grown significantly, with protests and boycotts aimed at limiting India’s economic and cultural dominance in Bangladesh. The campaign has also extended to political discourse, with many questioning Hasina’s alignment with India at the expense of Bangladesh’s independence.

The Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) and Jamaat-e-Islami, two major opposition parties, have distanced themselves from the Hasina administration, though their support for the ‘India Out’ campaign remains largely strategic. While some opposition leaders claim they would prefer stronger ties with China, others see the movement as a necessary step in reducing India’s political leverage in the country.

Economic Diversification and the End of India’s Strategic Dominance

India’s regional influence has long been bolstered by its economic ties, particularly with countries like Bangladesh and the Maldives. However, both nations are increasingly reducing their dependence on India, turning to alternative economic partnerships, particularly with China. The Maldives, which has long relied on India for trade and security, has begun to explore greater economic ties with Beijing, especially in the fields of infrastructure and tourism.

Economic diversification is also evident in Bangladesh, where the government has actively sought to reduce its reliance on Indian infrastructure projects and trade agreements. These shifts are contributing to a broader trend in South Asia, where countries are increasingly looking beyond India for strategic and economic alliances.

The Broader Impact on Regional Politics

The growing anti-India sentiment across South Asia signals a broader pushback against India’s regional dominance. The ‘India Out’ movement is no longer confined to political discourse; it has evolved into a cultural and economic resistance against India’s influence. As countries like Bangladesh, the Maldives, and Nepal distance themselves from New Delhi’s influence, India’s heavy-handed approach to diplomacy, marked by political interference, intelligence manipulation, and economic leverage, is increasingly being called into question.

Rather than fostering goodwill, India’s policies have sparked regional unrest, creating an environment ripe for greater collaboration between South Asian nations and other global powers, particularly China. This shift in South Asia’s geopolitical landscape has serious implications for India’s future role in the region. As neighboring countries seek greater political and economic autonomy, India may need to reassess its regional strategy, or risk losing its long-held position as South Asia’s dominant power.

The question now remains: will India adapt to this new regional order, or will its policies of dominance continue to fuel unrest and push neighboring nations closer to China? Only time will tell.