Pakistan’s TTP Challenge: Strikes, Talks, and Solutions

The recent strikes conducted by Pakistan on alleged Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) hideouts in Afghanistan’s Barmal district on December 24 highlight the ongoing TTP challenge, with Pakistan finding itself at a crossroads between military action and diplomatic dialogue. These strikes, the second this year, came in response to relentless cross-border attacks, including the recent martyrdom of 16 Pakistani soldiers in South Waziristan, claimed by TTP terrorists.

AIG’s Response to Cross-Border Strikes

In response, the Afghan Interim Government (AIG) confirmed the attacks and insisted that civilians were targeted. The Taliban spokesperson’s office said that at least 46 people, including women and children, were among those killed in strikes. AIG has termed the strikes a “cowardly act” and vowed retaliation. “The Pakistani side should understand that such arbitrary measures are not a solution to any problem,” Enayatullah Khowarazami, spokesperson for Afghanistan’s Defence Ministry, wrote on social media platform X. “The Islamic Emirate will not leave this cowardly act unanswered and considers the defence of its territory an inalienable right,” he added.

Growing Cross-Border TTP Challenge and Impact on Pakistan

Pakistan’s strikes on TTP hideouts are not isolated actions but part of a broader strategic response to the growing terrorism threats posed by the group. The country has experienced a significant surge in violence since the AIG assumed power in Kabul. Islamabad accuses the Afghan Interim Government (AIG) of harbouring TTP militants, though Kabul denies its territory is being used for such activities. In fact, over 1,500 violent incidents in Pakistan this year, resulting in nearly 1,000 deaths, suggest otherwise.

The TTP has intensified cross-border violence, exploiting tribal and sectarian divisions, particularly in regions like Lower Kurram, Balochistan, and Khyber Pakhtunkhaw’s tribal districts. According to Pakistan’s Interior Ministry, these incidents have claimed the lives of at least 570 law enforcement personnel and 351 civilians. The Pakistan Institute for Conflict and Security Studies (PICSS) reported over 856 attacks in 2024, surpassing the 645 incidents recorded the previous year.

Pakistan’s TTP Dilemma

The intricate link between the Afghan Interim Government (AIG) and the TTP complicates Pakistan’s counter-terrorism efforts. The TTP and its affiliates operate with alarming impunity from Afghan soil, exploiting cross-border dynamics to escalate violence. During a United Nations Security Council briefing last week, Pakistan said thousands of TTP fighters have sought shelter in Afghanistan.

“The TTP, with 6,000 fighters, is the largest listed terrorist organisation operating in Afghanistan. With safe havens close to our border, it poses a direct and daily threat to Pakistan’s security,” Pakistani diplomat Usman Iqbal Jadoon said at the UN briefing.

Notably, Pakistan’s counter-terrorism strategy underscores a deliberate preference for diplomacy and economic measures before resorting to military action. However, the persistence of militant attacks emanating from Afghanistan has compelled Pakistan to take decisive military steps, reflecting its dissatisfaction with the current security status quo.

Diplomatic Overtures: Pakistan and Kabul

The recent strikes on TTP hideouts in Afghanistan followed crucial meetings in Kabul, where Pakistan’s Special Representative for Afghanistan, Mohammad Sadiq, engaged with Afghan interim officials. The discussions aimed to address shared security concerns and strengthen regional stability. Key interactions included:

Interior Minister Khalifa Sirajuddin Haqqani: Focused on resolving security issues and bolstering political stability.
Foreign Minister H.E. Amir Khan Muttaqi: Discussed fostering economic cooperation, peace efforts, and enhancing regional security.

Both sides pledged to deepen collaboration for peace, stability, and prosperity. In this context, Pakistan’s strikes appear to be a calculated move, conveying a dual message to Afghanistan: while Pakistan remains open to diplomatic efforts to resolve the TTP challenge, it will not hesitate to take hard steps if TTP-led attacks, deemed to be orchestrated from Afghan soil, continue inside Pakistan.

Nevertheless, despite the Afghan Interim Government’s public promises of retaliation, speculation persists that they might have had prior knowledge of the strikes, especially since intelligence-based operations in Pakistan’s Waziristan region were ongoing at the time.

Escalating TTP Challenge

Over the past year, terrorist attacks in Pakistan, linked to groups operating from Afghan soil, have surged alarmingly. Despite repeated warnings, Kabul’s lack of decisive action has worsened the crisis.

Consequently, Pakistan implemented a combination of economic and diplomatic measures to neutralize the TTP threat. These include border closures, increased regional taxes, and higher tariffs, which have led to a $54 million decline in Afghan trade numbers in the first half of the year. These measures disrupted the transit of Afghan goods to key markets like India. Even the imposition of transit trade duties by Pakistan, which significantly reduced Afghan trade, failed to yield the desired results. Despite numerous warnings and appeals, the Kabul regime continued to disregard the gravity of the situation. In fact, they even turned down the calls from their traders to engage in talks with Pakistan. Left with no viable alternative, Pakistan was compelled to launch this military operation to safeguard its sovereignty and national security. This year alone, it marks the second precision strikes of its kind, the first strike taking place in March 2024.

December 24 Strikes: Targeting TTP Strongholds

Precision strikes on TTP hideouts in Afghanistan’s Paktika province neutralized over 30 militants, including 15 suicide bombers. Among those killed were members of the Hafiz Gul Bahadur (HGB) group.

While the TTP claimed civilian casualties, Pakistan identified the deceased as TTP affiliates who had previously fled to Afghanistan. Despite the TTP’s attempts to control the narrative through its Telegram channels, Pakistan remains resolute in countering cross-border threats.

Senior Afghan journalist Sami Yousafzai highlighted the vulnerabilities of the current regime: “Afghanistan, under Taliban rule, functions as a toothless government with no functioning air force or conventional army capable of defending its borders. This lack of capability theoretically gives Pakistan the power and leverage to strike TTP bases anywhere within Afghan territory.”

Yousafzai further warned that the Taliban, the current rulers of Afghanistan, risks repeating the mistakes of their 1996–2001 regime, which collapsed due to their support for Al-Qaeda. The current proxy conflict with Pakistan could precipitate another crisis for the Taliban.

TTP Propaganda Campaign: Manipulating Public Perception Amid Tensions

Following Pakistan’s strikes against the TTP hideouts in Afghanistan, the TTP and their foreign sympathisers and supporters launched a coordinated propaganda campaign to cover their embarrassment. Old videos and false claims are being used to portray this successful operation against terrorists as an attack on civilians. One such example includes a video featuring innocent children killed during an Israeli bombing in Gaza in July 2024, edited and repurposed for their malicious goals.

Similarly, the TTP is sharing images of children and women who died in earthquakes and other accidents to mislead the world. However, in today’s digital age, concealing the truth has become impossible.

Also See: Legacy, Trade, and Turmoil: The Pak-Afghan Reset

Diplomacy and Regional Cooperation in Tackling the TTP Challenge

While there is no denying that Kabul’s stubbornness in addressing Pakistan’s grievances pushed Islamabad toward military options, it is equally important for Pakistan to reevaluate its approach.

A coordinated regional approach is vital. In this regard, Pakistan should rally support from other stakeholders, including China, Russia, and Central Asian nations, to press the Afghan Interim Government for greater counterterrorism efforts. A unified regional stance could compel Kabul to take more decisive actions against the challenge of groups like the TTP.

Pakistan must enhance efforts to protect its frontiers. While it is reasonable to expect neighbours not to allow their territory to be used against us, the primary responsibility for safeguarding our borders lies with us. Border monitoring must be intensified to prevent the infiltration of terrorists, and decisive measures should be taken to dismantle any attempts by militant groups to establish strongholds, particularly in Balochistan, KP, and the former FATA region. Proactively addressing these threats is essential to achieving lasting peace, especially as neutralizing armed groups will remain a major challenge in 2025.

Diplomacy remains a cornerstone of addressing the challenges posed by cross-border militancy. Pakistan’s renewed engagement with the Afghan Interim Government is a positive step, evidenced by reports of Kabul relocating TTP away from the Pakistan border, signalling some progress. However, Islamabad must sustain this diplomatic momentum, emphasizing that mutual trust and regional stability are unattainable while anti-Pakistan groups operate freely from Afghan soil.

Ultimately, cordial ties between Pakistan and Afghanistan hinge on the Afghan Interim Government’s willingness to take meaningful action against anti-Pakistan groups operating from their territory. A balanced approach is essential, allowing Pakistan to address immediate security threats while simultaneously fostering the conditions for long-term peace and stability in the region. This approach should combine effective counterterrorism measures with sustained diplomatic engagement, ensuring that both nations work collaboratively to mitigate threats while building trust and cooperation for a secure and prosperous future.